Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.</li>
<li>The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.</li>
<li>Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.
The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.
Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.


[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 20/Sep, US crude inventories declined by 4.5m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 1.3m barrel drawdown. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also decreased more than analyst estimates.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rise 47 Bcf for the week ending 20/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 52 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 7.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>BP and Shell experienced rating downgrades and target price reductions, while TotalEnergies and Exxon Mobil saw upward revisions in their target prices.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 20/Sep, US crude inventories declined by 4.5m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 1.3m barrel drawdown. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also decreased more than analyst estimates.
US natural gas inventories rise 47 Bcf for the week ending 20/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 52 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 7.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.
BP and Shell experienced rating downgrades and target price reductions, while TotalEnergies and Exxon Mobil saw upward revisions in their target prices.


[ETP 2024/39] WTI Prices Slip as Supply Concerns Ease; Nat-Gas Soars on Strong Demand Expectations

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: Two ADDs (One Biggie), Two DELs, Possible Big Intrareview Moves

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The rankings used for the September 2024 index rebal event will be based on yesterday's (4th September 2024) opening prices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The rankings used for the September 2024 index rebal event will be based on yesterday's (4th September 2024) opening prices.
In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Sep 24 Rebal (Final): 2 Changes Possible

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 16/Aug, US crude inventories dropped by 4.6 mb, exceeding the expected 2 mb drawdown. Gasoline and distillate stocks also declined, surpassing analyst expectations.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rise 35 bcf for the week ending 16/Aug, exceeding analyst expectations of a 26 bcf buildup. Inventories are 12.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>UBS cut its target prices on Halliburton and Schlumberger but raised it for ExxonMobil and Occidental. Jefferies lowered its target price on Chevron.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 16/Aug, US crude inventories dropped by 4.6 mb, exceeding the expected 2 mb drawdown. Gasoline and distillate stocks also declined, surpassing analyst expectations.
US natural gas inventories rise 35 bcf for the week ending 16/Aug, exceeding analyst expectations of a 26 bcf buildup. Inventories are 12.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
UBS cut its target prices on Halliburton and Schlumberger but raised it for ExxonMobil and Occidental. Jefferies lowered its target price on Chevron.


[ETP 2024/34] Oil Slips on Weak Economic Indicators in US & China; Nat Gas Battles Oversupply

United States

Hess Corporation is a global independent energy company engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas.

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Hess Corp (HES US)

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Chevron’s short-term outlook is gloomy due to weak oil prices and global oil demand amid regulatory complications with its Hess purchase. In Q3,...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/39] WTI Prices Slip as Supply Concerns Ease; Nat-Gas Soars on Strong Demand Expectations

WTI reversed gains as supply disruptions eased amid persistent demand worries. In contrast, nat-gas prices surged on expectations of strong demand...

Mint Finance

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: Two ADDs (One Biggie), Two DELs, Possible Big Intrareview Moves

There are currently two expected ADDs and two expected DELs for the SP500 Dec24 Rebalance. There could be more from spinoffs and mergers. One big...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Sep 24 Rebal (Final): 2 Changes Possible

The SP500 Rebalance for Sep 2024 is based off the Wednesday open and should be announced on 6 Sep 2024. We see two possible ADDs vs DELETEs but the...

Travis Lundy

[ETP 2024/34] Oil Slips on Weak Economic Indicators in US & China; Nat Gas Battles Oversupply

Despite US crude stock plunging 4.6mb, prices fell on weak economic data from the US & China. The EU reached its 90% gas storage goal early. UBS...

Mint Finance

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