Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hesai Group, a global leader in LiDAR solutions in the ADAS and robotics markets, forecasted hyper-growth and GAAP profitability for the full year of 2025.</li>
<li>The stock has bottomed in the low $4s (~0.3x 2025E EV/Revs) in 2024 and gained about 350%. Hesai Group currently trades at ~4x EV/2025E revenues, ~32% discount relative to RoboSense.</li>
<li>I believe that the market has already priced in growth acceleration (~58% y/y) scenario in 2025 along with GAAP profitability and 1M+ LiDAR shipments this year.</li>
</ul>


Hesai Group, a global leader in LiDAR solutions in the ADAS and robotics markets, forecasted hyper-growth and GAAP profitability for the full year of 2025.
The stock has bottomed in the low $4s (~0.3x 2025E EV/Revs) in 2024 and gained about 350%. Hesai Group currently trades at ~4x EV/2025E revenues, ~32% discount relative to RoboSense.
I believe that the market has already priced in growth acceleration (~58% y/y) scenario in 2025 along with GAAP profitability and 1M+ LiDAR shipments this year.


Hesai Group: Growth Acceleration Has Already Priced In While Upside May Be Limited

<ul>
<li>Hesai Group, one of the global leaders in the LiDAR and perception solutions market, completed its IPO in February 2023 and listed ADSs on the Nasdaq Global Select Market.</li>
<li>The stock peaked at $30+ during the first trading day and fell ~67% over the following 8 months as selling pressure intensified and investor sentiment worsened.</li>
<li>The stock has taken another leg down following U.S. DoD’s decision to include Hesai Group in 1260H list of Chinese military-linked companies. Hesai believes this inclusion is unjust and meritless.</li>
</ul>


Hesai Group, one of the global leaders in the LiDAR and perception solutions market, completed its IPO in February 2023 and listed ADSs on the Nasdaq Global Select Market.
The stock peaked at $30+ during the first trading day and fell ~67% over the following 8 months as selling pressure intensified and investor sentiment worsened.
The stock has taken another leg down following U.S. DoD’s decision to include Hesai Group in 1260H list of Chinese military-linked companies. Hesai believes this inclusion is unjust and meritless.


Hesai Group: Time To Cover Shorts As The Stock Found A Bottom and Delisting Risk Is Real

<ul>
<li>Baidu, a Chinese multinational technology giant, chose Hesai Group to be the exclusive LiDAR supplier for its robotaxi fleet in China.  </li>
<li>Baidu is uniquely positioned for growth in a self-driving robotaxis and its autonomous ride-hailing platform, Apollo Go Robotaxi, gains real traction.   </li>
<li>Hesai Group may ship at least 300K LiDARs for Baidu’s sixth generation Apollo RT6 robotaxis that would translate into a revenue of up to $300M.</li>
</ul>


Baidu, a Chinese multinational technology giant, chose Hesai Group to be the exclusive LiDAR supplier for its robotaxi fleet in China.  
Baidu is uniquely positioned for growth in a self-driving robotaxis and its autonomous ride-hailing platform, Apollo Go Robotaxi, gains real traction.   
Hesai Group may ship at least 300K LiDARs for Baidu’s sixth generation Apollo RT6 robotaxis that would translate into a revenue of up to $300M.


Baidu Teams Up With Hesai Group For Its Robotaxi Platform Yichi 06: A Big Win For Hesai Group

<ul>
<li>Hesai Group shares significantly underperformed in 2024 with shares down ~47% over the year versus a ~23% gain on the Nasdaq Composite.</li>
<li>Moreover, a San Francisco-based Ouster, one of the key competitors among LiDAR makers, outperformed Hesai Group and the NASDAQ on a year-to-date basis.</li>
<li>I believe Hesai Group should initiate a share buyback program as RoboSense has recently announced on-market share repurchase plan to create value for its shareholders.  </li>
</ul>


Hesai Group shares significantly underperformed in 2024 with shares down ~47% over the year versus a ~23% gain on the Nasdaq Composite.
Moreover, a San Francisco-based Ouster, one of the key competitors among LiDAR makers, outperformed Hesai Group and the NASDAQ on a year-to-date basis.
I believe Hesai Group should initiate a share buyback program as RoboSense has recently announced on-market share repurchase plan to create value for its shareholders.  


Will Hesai Group Announce Its First-Ever Buyback To Restore Confidence in the Stock?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robosense-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39903:1" rel="noopener">Robosense Technology (2498 HK)</a> raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.</li>
<li>The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Robosense Technology (2498 HK) raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.
The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

United States

Hesai Group provides 3D light detection and ranging solutions. The Company's LiDAR products enables a broad spectrum of applications across passenger and commercial vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems, as well as autonomous vehicle fleets providing passenger and freight mobility services.

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Hesai Group (HSAI US)

Hesai Group: Growth Acceleration Has Already Priced In While Upside May Be Limited

Hesai Group stock is a one of the most speculative stocks in the LiDAR industry, in my view. I believe investors should take profits on Hesai Group...

Andrei Zakharov

Hesai Group: Time To Cover Shorts As The Stock Found A Bottom and Delisting Risk Is Real

Hesai Group priced its IPO at $19/ADS in February 2023 and shares have materially underperformed Nasdaq and S&P 500, with shares down ~77% vs. IPO...

Andrei Zakharov

Baidu Teams Up With Hesai Group For Its Robotaxi Platform Yichi 06: A Big Win For Hesai Group

In my insight, I discuss recent exclusive partnership between Baidu and Hesai Group, and update LiDAR deliveries estimates for Hesai Group

Andrei Zakharov

Will Hesai Group Announce Its First-Ever Buyback To Restore Confidence in the Stock?

Hesai Group, a leading LiDAR technology company, is suffering from depressed valuation and I believe an initiation of share buyback program may...

Andrei Zakharov

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

The pre-IPO shareholders came out of lockup today, leading to a 67% drop in the share price with an accompanying spike in volumes.

Sumeet Singh

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