IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (1700674D IN)</a>, the largest Indian electric two-wheel vehicles (E2W) player, is seeking US$660 million from a primary raise along with a secondary raise at a US$7-8 billion valuation. </li>
<li>Ola is the best-selling E2W brand in India in terms of monthly E2W registrations on the VAHAN Portal of the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on rising market share in a growing market, a rapid growth phase, increasing gross margin and a favourable cash conversion cycle.   </li>
</ul>



Ola Electric (1700674D IN), the largest Indian electric two-wheel vehicles (E2W) player, is seeking US$660 million from a primary raise along with a secondary raise at a US$7-8 billion valuation. 
Ola is the best-selling E2W brand in India in terms of monthly E2W registrations on the VAHAN Portal of the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways.
The bull case rests on rising market share in a growing market, a rapid growth phase, increasing gross margin and a favourable cash conversion cycle.   


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shriram-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:253:1" rel="noopener">Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)</a> is a high probability add and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20776:1" rel="noopener">UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)</a> is a high probability delete at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> rebalance in March.</li>
<li>There is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a> at the rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> will enter the running once added to the F&amp;O segment of the market.</li>
</ul>



Shriram Finance (SHFL IN) is a high probability add and UPL Ltd (UPLL IN) is a high probability delete at the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) rebalance in March.
There is a lower probability of Bharat Electronics (BHE IN) or Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) replacing Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) at the rebalance.

Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN), Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) and Zomato (ZOMATO IN) will enter the running once added to the F&amp;O segment of the market.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change, Maybe Two, Low Probability of Three

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For this edition, we focus on our 2023 Bloopers, to improvise rather than get embarrassed.  We also share some thoughts on potential enhancements that can be anticipated going forward.</li>
<li>On the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a>, we are still not bearish but do not find the markets to be very attractive either.</li>
<li>Bloopers in focus include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cartrade-tech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33474:1" rel="noopener">CarTrade (CARTRADE IN)</a> ; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aavas-financiers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27422:1" rel="noopener">Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


For this edition, we focus on our 2023 Bloopers, to improvise rather than get embarrassed.  We also share some thoughts on potential enhancements that can be anticipated going forward.
On the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX), we are still not bearish but do not find the markets to be very attractive either.
Bloopers in focus include Zomato (ZOMATO IN); CarTrade (CARTRADE IN) ; Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN). 


[Week 15] Namaste India 🙏 | 2023 Bloopers Edition

<ul>
<li>We visited the core of the Hindi Hinterland, the "City of Patna," the capital and largest city of Bihar, the country's third most populous state.</li>
<li>While the trip paints an opportunistic and optimistic picture of Bihar, the situation of unemployment is something that still warrants attention.</li>
<li>Focus companies: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aditya-vision-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40299:1" rel="noopener">Aditya Vision (AVL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a>  , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fino-payments-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35042:1" rel="noopener">Fino Payments Bank Ltd (FINOPB IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We visited the core of the Hindi Hinterland, the "City of Patna," the capital and largest city of Bihar, the country's third most populous state.
While the trip paints an opportunistic and optimistic picture of Bihar, the situation of unemployment is something that still warrants attention.
Focus companies: Aditya Vision (AVL IN) , Eicher Motors (EIM IN)  , Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Fino Payments Bank Ltd (FINOPB IN). 


Postcard from Patna | Breaking Sterotypes

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 11 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Some stocks were added to global indices last month while some could be added in February. There are potential index implications for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> too.</li>
<li>The upward migrations have continued to outperform the downward migrations. The largest recent outperformance has come from stocks expected to move from the Mid Cap to the Large Cap segment.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 11 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
Some stocks were added to global indices last month while some could be added in February. There are potential index implications for the NIFTY Index and Nifty Next 50 Index too.
The upward migrations have continued to outperform the downward migrations. The largest recent outperformance has come from stocks expected to move from the Mid Cap to the Large Cap segment.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): MidCap to LargeCap Migrations Outperforming

India

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

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Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)

Ola Electric IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on rising market share in a growing market, a rapid growth phase, increasing gross margin and a favourable cash conversion cycle.

Arun George

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change, Maybe Two, Low Probability of Three

There will be one change for the NIFTY in March, there could be two, with three changes a much lower possibility. Impact will be at least 3x ADV...

Brian Freitas

[Week 15] Namaste India 🙏 | 2023 Bloopers Edition

In this article, the focus is on 2023 market bloopers and potential enhancements. The NIFTY Index is neither bearish nor attractive.

Pranav Bhavsar

Postcard from Patna | Breaking Sterotypes

Visited Patna, the capital of Bihar, showcasing its potential but highlighting the issue of unemployment. Focus companies: Aditya Vision, Eicher...

Pranav Bhavsar

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): MidCap to LargeCap Migrations Outperforming

We see 41 stocks migrating between different market cap segments in Jan. A lot of stocks will have passive flows from NIFTY, NIFTYJR and global...

Brian Freitas

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Ola Electric IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on rising market share in a growing market, a rapid growth phase, increasing gross margin and a favourable cash conversion cycle.

Arun George

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change, Maybe Two, Low Probability of Three

There will be one change for the NIFTY in March, there could be two, with three changes a much lower possibility. Impact will be at least 3x ADV...

Brian Freitas

[Week 15] Namaste India 🙏 | 2023 Bloopers Edition

​In this article, the focus is on 2023 market bloopers and potential enhancements. The NIFTY Index is neither bearish nor attractive.

Pranav Bhavsar

Postcard from Patna | Breaking Sterotypes

​Visited Patna, the capital of Bihar, showcasing its potential but highlighting the issue of unemployment. Focus companies: Aditya Vision, Eicher...

Pranav Bhavsar

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): MidCap to LargeCap Migrations Outperforming

We see 41 stocks migrating between different market cap segments in Jan. A lot of stocks will have passive flows from NIFTY, NIFTYJR and global...

Brian Freitas

In this article, the focus is on 2023 market bloopers and potential enhancements. The NIFTY Index is neither bearish nor attractive.

Visited Patna, the capital of Bihar, showcasing its potential but highlighting the issue of unemployment. Focus companies: Aditya Vision, Eicher...