Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a>  &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harley-davidson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4386:1" rel="noopener">Harley Davidson (HOG US)</a> launched their collaborative creation, the Harley-Davidson X440, in India.</li>
<li>While this is a step in the right and anticipated direction, there are potentially grave mistakes that need to be corrected.</li>
<li>For HOG, there is more to lose than to gain from this development. Additionally, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> moat around the brand and a strong riding culture is likely underrated.</li>
</ul>



Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)  &amp; Harley Davidson (HOG US) launched their collaborative creation, the Harley-Davidson X440, in India.
While this is a step in the right and anticipated direction, there are potentially grave mistakes that need to be corrected.
For HOG, there is more to lose than to gain from this development. Additionally, Eicher Motors (EIM IN) moat around the brand and a strong riding culture is likely underrated.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. Some changes from earlier following 45 new F&amp;O stocks.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 61.5% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 63.4bn (US$752m).</li>
<li>The potential inclusions to the index have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of June. This trend could continue for a couple of weeks till the changes are announced.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. Some changes from earlier following 45 new F&amp;O stocks.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 61.5% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 63.4bn (US$752m).
The potential inclusions to the index have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of June. This trend could continue for a couple of weeks till the changes are announced.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: More Changes with New F&O Stocks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Hero MotoCorp Ltd (HEROMOTOCO) holds the market leader position in the Indian 2W industry with a market share of ~34.6% (as of Mar’22).</li><li>Motorcycles constitute the primary source of its revenue, contributing ~94% of total volumes, while scooters contribute 6% to its total volumes.</li><li>Hero is primarily focused on the domestic market, with ~94% of its volumes originating from India. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd (HEROMOTOCO) holds the market leader position in the Indian 2W industry with a market share of ~34.6% (as of Mar’22).Motorcycles constitute the primary source of its revenue, contributing ~94% of total volumes, while scooters contribute 6% to its total volumes.Hero is primarily focused on the domestic market, with ~94% of its volumes originating from India. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pick of the Week: Hero MotoCorp Ltd - 29 Apr 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Emkay Global Financial's research report onHero MotoCorp HMCL’s stock price has corrected 11% from the recent highs, even as newly launched Xtreme 125R in the fast-growing 125cc motorcycle category has been received well (per dealer checks), and led to reversal in market share (15.7% in Mar-24 vs. 9.7% in Dec-23; peak share of 50%).</li><li>Product action coupled with sustenance of the dom.</li><li>2W growth story (Apr-24 MTD retails up ~26%) and positive initial outlook for monsoons (key rural demand trigger) prompt us to build-in 12% EPS CAGR over FY24E-26E (upgrade FY25E, FY26E EPS by ~4.5% each).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Emkay Global Financial's research report onHero MotoCorp HMCL’s stock price has corrected 11% from the recent highs, even as newly launched Xtreme 125R in the fast-growing 125cc motorcycle category has been received well (per dealer checks), and led to reversal in market share (15.7% in Mar-24 vs. 9.7% in Dec-23; peak share of 50%).Product action coupled with sustenance of the dom.2W growth story (Apr-24 MTD retails up ~26%) and positive initial outlook for monsoons (key rural demand trigger) prompt us to build-in 12% EPS CAGR over FY24E-26E (upgrade FY25E, FY26E EPS by ~4.5% each).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hero MotoCorp - Upgrade to BUY on New Launch Success

<ul><li>Hero MotoCorp’s Revenue/EBITDA stood largely in line with our estimates, while PAT stood ahead by 7%, led by higher-than-expected other income.</li><li>Revenue grew by 4%/8% YoY/QoQ to Rs 9,445 Cr, largely in line with our estimate.</li><li>EBITDA grew by 28%/10% YoY/QoQ (inline) to Rs 1,328 Cr, while EBITDA margins reached the 14% mark, up 262/30bps YoY/QoQ, led by lower RM costs (GMs at 31%, up 337bps YoY), price hikes and better sales mix. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hero MotoCorp’s Revenue/EBITDA stood largely in line with our estimates, while PAT stood ahead by 7%, led by higher-than-expected other income.Revenue grew by 4%/8% YoY/QoQ to Rs 9,445 Cr, largely in line with our estimate.EBITDA grew by 28%/10% YoY/QoQ (inline) to Rs 1,328 Cr, while EBITDA margins reached the 14% mark, up 262/30bps YoY/QoQ, led by lower RM costs (GMs at 31%, up 337bps YoY), price hikes and better sales mix. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hero MotoCorp - Products Lineup in Place; Market Share Gains Impending

India

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

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Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)