Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Positive retail flows, HNI &amp; AIF inflows, along with global market trends, suggest that the uptrend for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> may continue.</li>
<li>Bullish stocks include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-brands" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35289:1" rel="noopener">Metro Brands (METROBRA IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-wellness-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4353:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN)</a>, while the sentiment for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whirlpool-of-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7270:1" rel="noopener">Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN)</a> is Bearish.</li>
<li>Highlighted global stocks include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4022:1" rel="noopener">Ebix (EBIX US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smith-a-o-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18645:1" rel="noopener">Smith (A.O.) (AOS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Positive retail flows, HNI &amp; AIF inflows, along with global market trends, suggest that the uptrend for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) may continue.
Bullish stocks include Metro Brands (METROBRA IN) and Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN), while the sentiment for Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN) is Bearish.
Highlighted global stocks include Ebix (EBIX US) , Smith (A.O.) (AOS US) and Apple (AAPL US) 


[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.</li>
<li>There will be a few announcements next week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> rebalances on Friday.</li>
<li>Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


The HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.
There will be a few announcements next week with Nikkei 225 early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the STAR50 rebalances on Friday.
Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the CSI 300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.</li>
<li>Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.
Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

<ul>
<li>Triumph-Bajaj midsize bike melds the expertise of Triumph Motorcycles and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a>  for top-tier quality, targeting the midsize market with dual-brand prowess.</li>
<li>Triumph-Bajaj sparks fervour with strong inquiries and bookings in tier-two and tier-one locations, though supply constraints present challenges.</li>
<li>Triumph stands out targeting the 30+ age group seeking premium leisure riding, employing exclusive dealerships and unique pricing to enhance ownership experience.</li>
</ul>


Triumph-Bajaj midsize bike melds the expertise of Triumph Motorcycles and Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)  for top-tier quality, targeting the midsize market with dual-brand prowess.
Triumph-Bajaj sparks fervour with strong inquiries and bookings in tier-two and tier-one locations, though supply constraints present challenges.
Triumph stands out targeting the 30+ age group seeking premium leisure riding, employing exclusive dealerships and unique pricing to enhance ownership experience.


Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) | The Market Dominance Playbook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a>  is undergoing a course correction, acknowledging its past mistakes.</li>
<li>Multiple levers on the horizon arguing for a change of stance on HMCL.</li>
<li>The stock is reasonably valued, and institutional holdings are at a 12-quarter low, signaling the need for attention.</li>
</ul>



Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)  is undergoing a course correction, acknowledging its past mistakes.
Multiple levers on the horizon arguing for a change of stance on HMCL.
The stock is reasonably valued, and institutional holdings are at a 12-quarter low, signaling the need for attention.


Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Course Correction

India

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

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Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)

[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

The NIFTY Index could continue its uptrend. Bullish names include Metro, and Zydus Wellness, Global names to watch are Ebix, Smith (A.O.), and Apple.

Pranav Bhavsar

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

We see 42 potential migrations between the size categories. The small to mid migrations have outperformed. There will be a lot of overlap between...

Brian Freitas

Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) | The Market Dominance Playbook

Triumph-Bajaj: A fusion of expertise, high market demand, and unique targeting of 30+ riders for premium leisure makes a case for a robust market...

Pranav Bhavsar

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Course Correction

HMCL IN on course correction, realizing past mistakes. Catalysts ahead. Stock undervalued, low institutional holdings demand attention!

Pranav Bhavsar

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