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Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p>Herein we revise and update MLKN estimates following MillerKnoll's FY23 earnings report and FY24 guidance.</p></li><li><p>Our 1QFY24 diluted non-GAAP EPS estimate is now $0.20, down $0.10 from our previous (reduced) $0.30 estimate.</p></li><li><p>Our FY24 annual estimate is now $1.82 (down from $2.00), below the midpoint of the $1.70-$2.00 management outlook.</p></li></ul>

Herein we revise and update MLKN estimates following MillerKnoll's FY23 earnings report and FY24 guidance.Our 1QFY24 diluted non-GAAP EPS estimate is now $0.20, down $0.10 from our previous (reduced) $0.30 estimate.Our FY24 annual estimate is now $1.82 (down from $2.00), below the midpoint of the $1.70-$2.00 management outlook.

MillerKnoll, Inc. - Refreshing Estimates and Presenting New Model

<div><div><div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p>After the market close on 7/12/2023, Miller Knoll reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 (as adjusted), beating our estimate and consensus estimate, each at $0.39.</p></li><li><p>Additionally, revenues of $956.7MM (above the mid-point of the $930MM to $970MM guidance) beat our $936MM and consensus $942MM estimates. GAAP EPS was $0.00.</p></li><li><p>Guidance always merits significant investor attention. Management guided historically only to the current quarter.</p></li></ul></div></div></div></div>

After the market close on 7/12/2023, Miller Knoll reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 (as adjusted), beating our estimate and consensus estimate, each at $0.39.Additionally, revenues of $956.7MM (above the mid-point of the $930MM to $970MM guidance) beat our $936MM and consensus $942MM estimates. GAAP EPS was $0.00.Guidance always merits significant investor attention. Management guided historically only to the current quarter.

MillerKnoll, Inc. - 4Q23 Results Top Expectations

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Office furniture manufacturers assembled in Chicago this week for an annual trade show.</li><li>NeoCon®, the legacy name of the show, is a registered trademark of Merchandise Mart Properties, Inc</li><li>It pertains only to Mart tenants. Several major players moved away from the Mart to Fulton Market and renamed their show Design Days.</li></ul>

Office furniture manufacturers assembled in Chicago this week for an annual trade show.NeoCon®, the legacy name of the show, is a registered trademark of Merchandise Mart Properties, IncIt pertains only to Mart tenants. Several major players moved away from the Mart to Fulton Market and renamed their show Design Days.

NeoCon/Design Days : Office Manufacturers Display Wares Amid Macro Uncertainty

<ul><li>This note addresses the Monthly Market Pulse (MMP) of incoming orders and sales for March 2023 issued by the Business Institutional Furniture Manufacturers Association (BIFMA).</li><li>About 50+ BIFMA member companies voluntarily submit monthly sales and orders to a national accounting firm that aggregates and reports composite data.</li><li>Neither BIFMA nor any individual member has access to the raw data. We show the monthly data from 2019 to March 2023 under Industry Statistics.</li></ul>

This note addresses the Monthly Market Pulse (MMP) of incoming orders and sales for March 2023 issued by the Business Institutional Furniture Manufacturers Association (BIFMA).About 50+ BIFMA member companies voluntarily submit monthly sales and orders to a national accounting firm that aggregates and reports composite data.Neither BIFMA nor any individual member has access to the raw data. We show the monthly data from 2019 to March 2023 under Industry Statistics.

Commercial/Contract Furniture/Consumer Hardlines : Orders Remain Lower Y/Y, but at Moderating Pace

<ul><li>As sensitive as this may be, we feel an obligation to correct misinformation on social media and put some context on a related news report about an internal MillerKnoll video town hall that leaked.</li><li>MLKN was down ~2.5% on Tuesday, more than its peers and competitors. Misinformation may have contributed to the stock action.</li><li>First, the misinformation: A tweet Tuesday shows CEO Andrea “Andi” Owen rallying employees.</li></ul>

As sensitive as this may be, we feel an obligation to correct misinformation on social media and put some context on a related news report about an internal MillerKnoll video town hall that leaked.MLKN was down ~2.5% on Tuesday, more than its peers and competitors. Misinformation may have contributed to the stock action.First, the misinformation: A tweet Tuesday shows CEO Andrea “Andi” Owen rallying employees.

Setting the Record Straight: Tweet Twists Truth About CEO Compensation

United States

MillerKnoll, Inc. researches, designs, manufactures, and distributes interior office furnishings, furniture systems, products, and services. The Company markets its products to companies, organizations, and individuals worldwide.

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MillerKnoll (MLKN US)

MillerKnoll, Inc. - Refreshing Estimates and Presenting New Model

Herein we revise and update MLKN estimates following MillerKnoll's FY23 earnings report and FY24 guidance.Our 1QFY24 diluted non-GAAP EPS estimate...

Water Tower Research

MillerKnoll, Inc. - 4Q23 Results Top Expectations

After the market close on 7/12/2023, Miller Knoll reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 (as adjusted), beating our estimate and consensus estimate,...

Water Tower Research

NeoCon/Design Days : Office Manufacturers Display Wares Amid Macro Uncertainty

Office furniture manufacturers assembled in Chicago this week for an annual trade show. NeoCon®, the legacy name of the show, is a registered...

Water Tower Research

Commercial/Contract Furniture/Consumer Hardlines : Orders Remain Lower Y/Y, but at Moderating Pace

This note addresses the Monthly Market Pulse (MMP) of incoming orders and sales for March 2023 issued by the Business Institutional Furniture...

Water Tower Research

Setting the Record Straight: Tweet Twists Truth About CEO Compensation

MLKN was down ~2.5% on Tuesday, more than its peers and competitors. Misinformation may have contributed to the stock action.

Water Tower Research

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