Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The weight of the evidence continues to support our mixed, but overall constructive outlook. Below we outline the basis for our outlook, and we also highlight opportunities within Real Estate and Health Care.

The weight of the evidence continues to support our mixed, but overall constructive outlook. Below we outline the basis for our outlook, and we also highlight opportunities within Real Estate and Health Care.

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities In Real Estate and Health Care

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> there are 3 inclusions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a>.The 3 inclusions will increase the number of index constituents to 58. With the target of getting to 80 stocks by mid-2022, the expectation was for more stocks to be included at this review. What likely resulted in fewer stocks being added was the large turnover due to the capping changes.While we had expected the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a>, the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> will have a big impact since the stock has also been included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>. One-way turnover is estimated at 7.77% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$16.82bn.  The largest passive inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> as a result of the capping change from 5% to 8%, while the largest outflows will be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> due to the capping change from 10% to 8%.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes and we expect all 3 inclusions to open higher on Monday and continue to outperform the market over the period.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.For the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) there are 3 inclusions - Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK).The 3 inclusions will increase the number of index constituents to 58. With the target of getting to 80 stocks by mid-2022, the expectation was for more stocks to be included at this review. What likely resulted in fewer stocks being added was the large turnover due to the capping changes.While we had expected the inclusion of Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) and Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK), the inclusion of BYD (1211 HK) will have a big impact since the stock has also been included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX). One-way turnover is estimated at 7.77% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$16.82bn.  The largest passive inflows will be on Meituan (3690 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) as a result of the capping change from 5% to 8%, while the largest outflows will be from AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK) and HSBC Holdings (5 HK) due to the capping change from 10% to 8%.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes and we expect all 3 inclusions to open higher on Monday and continue to outperform the market over the period.

HSI Index Rebalance: Only 3 Additions but BIG Turnover

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Macrotech Developers / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
Macrotech Developers (Lodha) raised around US$345m in its India IPO and will start trading later today.
<ul>
<li>We have looked at its previous listing attempt and various aspects of the deal in our prior notes: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lodha-developers-pre-ipo-second-time-lucky-but-not-really-that-much-affordable" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lodha Developers Pre-IPO - Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/macrotech-lodha-developers-pre-ipo-new-name-but-up-to-some-of-the-same-old-tricks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Macrotech (Lodha) developers Pre-IPO - New name but up to some of the same old tricks</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/macrotech-lodha-developers-ipo-one-too-many-issues" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Macrotech (Lodha) Developers IPO - One Too Many Issues</a></li>
</ul>
In this note, we'll talk about deal updates.
</div>


Macrotech Developers (Lodha) raised around US$345m in its India IPO and will start trading later today.

We have looked at its previous listing attempt and various aspects of the deal in our prior notes: Lodha Developers Pre-IPO - Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable.
Macrotech (Lodha) developers Pre-IPO - New name but up to some of the same old tricks
Macrotech (Lodha) Developers IPO - One Too Many Issues

In this note, we'll talk about deal updates.


Macrotech (Lodha) Developers IPO Trading - Locals, Including Employees, Give It a Miss

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Grab, Huarong, Invesco Office, Intouch, Jardines

Equity Bottom-Up

Henderson Land Development / Equity Bottom-Up

Expropriation.
Not the word Hong Kong property developers, sitting on millions of square feet of farmland, wish to hear. And the newish Bauhinia Party (just) stops short of suggesting such an approach.
But a recent <a href="https://www.thestandnews.com/politics/%E7%B4%AB%E8%8D%8A%E9%BB%A8%E5%85%A7%E9%83%A8%E5%88%8A%E7%89%A9-%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E6%88%BF%E5%B1%8B%E5%95%8F%E9%A1%8C%E5%A8%81%E8%84%85-%E4%B8%80%E5%9C%8B-%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8-%E5%80%A1%E4%B8%AD%E5%A4%AE%E5%87%BA%E9%9D%A2%E5%8D%94%E8%AA%BF-%E8%88%89%E4%BE%8B%E5%8F%AF%E5%BC%B7%E5%BE%B5%E5%9C%9F%E5%9C%B0/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">internal discussion paper</a>, authored by an executive committee member of the Bauhinia Party, refers to the housing issue in Hong Kong, wherein the gap between the rich and poor is widening, causing social unrest to the point of "threatening the security of one country". The paper indicates the Central government has the right to coordinate the supply of land in Hong Kong.
The Bauhinia party, established by mainland Chinese executives, is a pro-Beijing political party with close links to Beijing's authorities. I would not be so quick to dismiss such commentary and the potential knock-on effect to local property developers.
More below the fold.
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/251/original/image_16007097821618301158871.png?1618301161" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200251"></figure>

Expropriation.
Not the word Hong Kong property developers, sitting on millions of square feet of farmland, wish to hear. And the newish Bauhinia Party (just) stops short of suggesting such an approach.
But a recent internal discussion paper, authored by an executive committee member of the Bauhinia Party, refers to the housing issue in Hong Kong, wherein the gap between the rich and poor is widening, causing social unrest to the point of "threatening the security of one country". The paper indicates the Central government has the right to coordinate the supply of land in Hong Kong.
The Bauhinia party, established by mainland Chinese executives, is a pro-Beijing political party with close links to Beijing's authorities. I would not be so quick to dismiss such commentary and the potential knock-on effect to local property developers.
More below the fold.



Hong Kong Property Developers: Eminent Domain

Hong Kong

Henderson Land Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and manages properties. The Company also provides project management, construction, and finance services. In addition, Henderson Land Development operates department stores, hotels, and infrastructure business.

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Henderson Land Development (12 HK)

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities In Real Estate and Health Care

The weight of the evidence continues to support our mixed, but overall constructive outlook. We outline the basis for our outlook and also...

Vermilion Research

HSI Index Rebalance: Only 3 Additions but BIG Turnover

There are 3 inclusions (BYD, Xinyi Solar, CG Services) to the HSI taking the number of constituents up to 58. Turnover is high at 7.77% and will...

Brian Freitas

Macrotech (Lodha) Developers IPO Trading - Locals, Including Employees, Give It a Miss

Macrotech Developers (Lodha) raised around US$345m in its India IPO and will start trading later today. In this note, we'll talk about the trading...

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Grab, Huarong, Invesco Office, Intouch, Jardines

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Property Developers: Eminent Domain

Henderson has the most to lose from any authoritative land resumption, followed by NWD. Perhaps more land donations are forthcoming, and fiduciary...

David Blennerhassett

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