Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

(As a mark of respect and solidarity with those killed and injured in London on 22 March, I have delayed this note by 24 hours. My sincere condolences to the UK's people for the horrific terrorist outrage at Westminster).Martin McGuinness, the former commander of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) who became a sentinel of peace in Northern Ireland with the Good Friday Agreement (brokered by Bill Clinton in 1998) and served as Deputy First Minister there for a decade, did not live to see a reunited…

(As a mark of respect and solidarity with those killed and injured in London on 22 March, I have delayed this note by 24 hours. My sincere condolences to the UK's people for the horrific terrorist outrage at Westminster).Martin McGuinness, the former commander of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) who became a sentinel of peace in Northern Ireland with the Good Friday Agreement (brokered by Bill Clinton in 1998) and served as Deputy First Minister there for a decade, did not live to see a reunited…

Not Just Scotland: McGuinness, Brexit and the Dismantling of the United Kingdom

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Summary:Article 50 is due to be triggered by the UK government within the next two weeks, marking the formal start of Brexit negotiations with the EU. These negotiations will be complex and the time frame is very limited. As a further complication Scottish politicians are pushing to hold a second independence referendum towards the end of the negotiation period. Using crowd-sourced sentiments we assess the outlook for the UK equity market and the currency and conclude that while the risks for…

Summary:Article 50 is due to be triggered by the UK government within the next two weeks, marking the formal start of Brexit negotiations with the EU. These negotiations will be complex and the time frame is very limited. As a further complication Scottish politicians are pushing to hold a second independence referendum towards the end of the negotiation period. Using crowd-sourced sentiments we assess the outlook for the UK equity market and the currency and conclude that while the risks for…

The Market Sentimentalist: Ready, Steady, Brexit

The upcoming French election has, as we warned previously (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-market-sentimentalist-redshift-politics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8677">The Market Sentimentalist: Redshift Politics</a>), rattled investors. Intra-regional government bond spreads have widened as investors view the perceived safety of German Bunds as a more attractive investment characteristic - and hence destination for their capital - during times of heightened political uncertainty.The catalyst for this price action has been the steady rise in support in the polls for Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, whose economic policy pledges include pulling out of the single currency and taking away the Banque de France’s operational independence and coercing it to print money in support of a more stimulative fiscal policy stance.Having been caught off-guard by the Brexit and Trump votes last year investors are wary, and understandably so. But what do the same crowd-sourced sentiment indicators that flagged both of these earlier "surprises" suggest? Are we in for yet another populist victory?

The upcoming French election has, as we warned previously (The Market Sentimentalist: Redshift Politics), rattled investors. Intra-regional government bond spreads have widened as investors view the perceived safety of German Bunds as a more attractive investment characteristic - and hence destination for their capital - during times of heightened political uncertainty.The catalyst for this price action has been the steady rise in support in the polls for Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, whose economic policy pledges include pulling out of the single currency and taking away the Banque de France’s operational independence and coercing it to print money in support of a more stimulative fiscal policy stance.Having been caught off-guard by the Brexit and Trump votes last year investors are wary, and understandably so. But what do the same crowd-sourced sentiment indicators that flagged both of these earlier "surprises" suggest? Are we in for yet another populist victory?

The Market Sentimentalist: French Election Special

Macroeconomics

-Eurozone inflation jumped to 1.8% YoY in January 2017, the highest since February 2013 and perilously close to the ECB's target. With European members of NATO likely to be obliged to raise defense spending substantially, the need for continued QE in the Eurozone is diminishing. As expectations about ECB policy change, the Euro should steadily edge higher.-The US Fed targets the core PCE deflator, which was up 1.7% YoY in December (broadly the same pace as in the previous four months). Although…

-Eurozone inflation jumped to 1.8% YoY in January 2017, the highest since February 2013 and perilously close to the ECB's target. With European members of NATO likely to be obliged to raise defense spending substantially, the need for continued QE in the Eurozone is diminishing. As expectations about ECB policy change, the Euro should steadily edge higher.-The US Fed targets the core PCE deflator, which was up 1.7% YoY in December (broadly the same pace as in the previous four months). Although…

Inflation Is Back, and Euro Weakness Is Unlikely to Return in 1H 2017

United Kingdom

Henderson Alternative Strategies Trust (HAST LN)

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