Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The revenue growth rate accelerated further to 53% yoy in 4Q20.</li>
<li>Online market revenue surged by 195% yoy in 4Q20.</li>
<li>We believe total revenue will grow 53% in 2021 versus 50% in 2020.</li>
<li>The gross margin improved significantly to 47% in 4Q20 versus 39% in 4Q19.</li>
<li>We believe the company will make operating profit in 2022.</li>
<li>However, we believe the stock price has a downside of 18% for the end of 2022.</li>
</ul>


The revenue growth rate accelerated further to 53% yoy in 4Q20.
Online market revenue surged by 195% yoy in 4Q20.
We believe total revenue will grow 53% in 2021 versus 50% in 2020.
The gross margin improved significantly to 47% in 4Q20 versus 39% in 4Q19.
We believe the company will make operating profit in 2022.
However, we believe the stock price has a downside of 18% for the end of 2022.


Kuaishou (1024 HK): Q4, Higher Growth , Higher Margin, User Base Closer to TikTok, But Overvalued

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhihu Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a> is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC. Zhihu is acknowledged as the first choice among all online content communities in China where people look for information to make decisions or find answers, according to CIC. Zhihu is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Zhihu is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. <span>In </span><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-ipo-initiation-question-time" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48928" rel="noopener">Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time</a><span>, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Zhihu's potential valuation. </span></p></div>
</div>


Zhihu Technology (ZH US) is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC. Zhihu is acknowledged as the first choice among all online content communities in China where people look for information to make decisions or find answers, according to CIC. Zhihu is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and Baidu (BIDU US).
Zhihu is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. In Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Zhihu's potential valuation. 


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Kuaishou Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<p>The Chinese short-video and livestreaming platform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>  started trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the 05<sup>th </sup>February 2021. The company set its final IPO pricing at HK$115 per share, the upper end of the IPO price range of HK$105-115 per share and raised net proceeds of HK$41.28bn (approx. 5.32bn).</p><p>Kuaishou’s shares opened strong at its debut at HK$338 per share, about 194% higher than the final IPO pricing of HK$115 per share. The company’s shares closed at HK$300 per share at the end of its first day of trading, still at a whopping premium of 161% to the final IPO price. The company’s shares closed at HK$415 per share (at the end of Wednesday’s trading), almost HK$300 more than the IPO price of HK$115 per share.</p><p>Following the company’s successful listing on 5<sup>th</sup> of February, FTSE Russell announced that Kuaishou will be added to FTSE China 50 Index effective 17<sup>th</sup> February 2021 (start of trading).</p><p>At the end of trading on 8<sup>th</sup> February, it was announced that the company will be included in the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH Index) and Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) after market close on February 22<sup>nd</sup>.</p>

The Chinese short-video and livestreaming platform Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)  started trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the 05th February 2021. The company set its final IPO pricing at HK$115 per share, the upper end of the IPO price range of HK$105-115 per share and raised net proceeds of HK$41.28bn (approx. 5.32bn).Kuaishou’s shares opened strong at its debut at HK$338 per share, about 194% higher than the final IPO pricing of HK$115 per share. The company’s shares closed at HK$300 per share at the end of its first day of trading, still at a whopping premium of 161% to the final IPO price. The company’s shares closed at HK$415 per share (at the end of Wednesday’s trading), almost HK$300 more than the IPO price of HK$115 per share.Following the company’s successful listing on 5th of February, FTSE Russell announced that Kuaishou will be added to FTSE China 50 Index effective 17th February 2021 (start of trading).At the end of trading on 8th February, it was announced that the company will be included in the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH Index) and Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) after market close on February 22nd.

Kuaishou IPO Trading Update: Further Upside Seems Limited; We Are Looking for Exit Points

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>Our base case valuation for Bumble Inc is implied price per share of $72.3, representing a market cap of $13.9 billion and EV of $11.9 billion. Our target price represents an 85% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $39 per share.</strong> Our valuation uses an EV/S (2021) multiple of 15.9x, which is in line with its main competitor Match Group. Our valuation sensitivity analysis suggests a value range of $60.5 to $85.3 per share. </p>
<p>We believe that the market is willing to put valuation multiples that are at least in line with its biggest competitor the Match Group due to three main reasons: a) Bumble has higher sales growth rate than the Match Group, b) Strong management team led by Whitney Herd. c) improving profit margins. </p>
</div>


Our base case valuation for Bumble Inc is implied price per share of $72.3, representing a market cap of $13.9 billion and EV of $11.9 billion. Our target price represents an 85% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $39 per share. Our valuation uses an EV/S (2021) multiple of 15.9x, which is in line with its main competitor Match Group. Our valuation sensitivity analysis suggests a value range of $60.5 to $85.3 per share. 
We believe that the market is willing to put valuation multiples that are at least in line with its biggest competitor the Match Group due to three main reasons: a) Bumble has higher sales growth rate than the Match Group, b) Strong management team led by Whitney Herd. c) improving profit margins. 


<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Kuaishou will commence trading on Friday, 05 February. Kuaishou priced its IPO at HK$115 and <a href="http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1074361/ipo-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opened 1x higher</a> at HK$230 in the grey market and last stood at HK$278.</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-initiation-dancing-to-its-own-tune" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45032" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune</a>, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-thrill-seekers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47104" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO: Thrill Seekers</a>, we noted that the PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47381" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$137.42 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price is attractive but the grey market price is fully priced. </p></div></div></div>

Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Kuaishou will commence trading on Friday, 05 February. Kuaishou priced its IPO at HK$115 and opened 1x higher at HK$230 in the grey market and last stood at HK$278.In Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In Kuaishou IPO: Thrill Seekers, we noted that the PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. In Kuaishou IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive.Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$137.42 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price is attractive but the grey market price is fully priced. 

China

Hello Group Inc. operates as a mobile-based social networking platform. The Company enables users to establish and expand social relationships based on location and interests. Hello Group operates out of the Peoples Republic of China.

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Hello Group (MOMO US)

Kuaishou (1024 HK): Q4, Higher Growth , Higher Margin, User Base Closer to TikTok, But Overvalued

The revenue growth rate accelerated further to 53% yoy in 4Q20. Online market revenue surged by 195% yoy in 4Q20. The gross margin improved...

Ming Lu

Zhihu IPO: Valuation First Look

Zhihu is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the...

Arun George

Kuaishou IPO Trading Update: Further Upside Seems Limited; We Are Looking for Exit Points

Kuaishou’s shares opened strong at its debut at HK$338 per share, about 194% higher than the final IPO pricing of HK$115 per share. The company’s...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Bumble IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation for Bumble Inc is implied price per share of $72.3, which represents an 85% upside to the high end of the IPO price range...

Douglas Kim

Kuaishou IPO: Trading Debut

Kuaishou priced its IPO at HK$115 and the grey market price last stood at HK$278. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the grey market price is...

Arun George

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