Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. / Equity Bottom-Up

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, is making progress in its Vision 2025 strategy by building a 0.3GW renewable energy portfolio as of Q122. The company reported Q421 adjusted EBITDA of €138m, up 80% from Q420 (€77m), supported by a recovery in the refining sector. We expect Hellenic to continue to benefit from favourable refining margins and higher oil demand in Q122 and note that margins increased as an immediate reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, as natural gas and oil prices have surged, we expect a negative impact on cash flow due to increased working capital (estimated at a c €300m outflow). Due to the complexity of factors and the uncertain environment, we do not adjust our post-FY22 refining margin estimates at this stage. Hellenic could potentially provide a dividend yield of c 10% for FY22, including a special dividend once the sale of DEPA Infrastructure completes.

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, is making progress in its Vision 2025 strategy by building a 0.3GW renewable energy portfolio as of Q122. The company reported Q421 adjusted EBITDA of €138m, up 80% from Q420 (€77m), supported by a recovery in the refining sector. We expect Hellenic to continue to benefit from favourable refining margins and higher oil demand in Q122 and note that margins increased as an immediate reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, as natural gas and oil prices have surged, we expect a negative impact on cash flow due to increased working capital (estimated at a c €300m outflow). Due to the complexity of factors and the uncertain environment, we do not adjust our post-FY22 refining margin estimates at this stage. Hellenic could potentially provide a dividend yield of c 10% for FY22, including a special dividend once the sale of DEPA Infrastructure completes.

Hellenic Petroleum - Low dependency on Russian crude

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

<ul>
<li>Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.</li>
<li>We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.</li>
<li>Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.</li>
</ul>


Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.
We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.
Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.


Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, reported Q321 EBITDA of €125m, up 90% from Q320 (€66m), with improved performance across all segments. We expect it to continue to benefit from favourable refining margins and higher demand for transport fuels in the coming months due to increased economic activity. However, this should be partially offset by higher operating costs due to sharply rising energy prices.

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, reported Q321 EBITDA of €125m, up 90% from Q320 (€66m), with improved performance across all segments. We expect it to continue to benefit from favourable refining margins and higher demand for transport fuels in the coming months due to increased economic activity. However, this should be partially offset by higher operating costs due to sharply rising energy prices.

Hellenic Petroleum - Recovery in oil demand supports operations

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, reported Q221 EBITDA of €79m This is a 26% increase on Q220 (€63m) and was driven by a strong performance in its petrochemicals and retail marketing activities, offset partially by a weak performance in its refining business. We expect rising demand for transport fuels and higher benchmark refining margins to drive a recovery in refining earnings in H2. Hellenic is also moving toward its Vision 2025 strategy, with the ongoing spin-off of its refining and petrochemical activities and recent corporate governance changes. For now, our valuation is based on the current shape of the company, pending more information on its energy transition strategy.

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, reported Q221 EBITDA of €79m This is a 26% increase on Q220 (€63m) and was driven by a strong performance in its petrochemicals and retail marketing activities, offset partially by a weak performance in its refining business. We expect rising demand for transport fuels and higher benchmark refining margins to drive a recovery in refining earnings in H2. Hellenic is also moving toward its Vision 2025 strategy, with the ongoing spin-off of its refining and petrochemical activities and recent corporate governance changes. For now, our valuation is based on the current shape of the company, pending more information on its energy transition strategy. 


Hellenic Petroleum - Expect refining earnings turnaround in H2

Greece

HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. explores for, develops, produces, refines, and markets petroleum products.  The Company also produces petrochemicals and chemicals, and explores for and produces hydrocarbons.  It constructs and operates pipelines. The Company also offers engineering services.  HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. operates refineries in Thessaloniki, the Athens metropolitan area, and Skopje.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. (ELPE GA)

Hellenic Petroleum - Low dependency on Russian crude

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, is making progress in its Vision 2025 strategy by building a 0.3GW renewable energy portfolio...

Edison Investment Research

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

We are sticking with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically sound throughout this correction, not on areas that are just now spiking...

Vermilion Research

Hellenic Petroleum - Recovery in oil demand supports operations

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, reported Q321 EBITDA of €125m, up 90% from Q320 (€66m), with improved performance across all...

Edison Investment Research

Hellenic Petroleum - Expect refining earnings turnaround in H2

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, reported Q221 EBITDA of €79m This is a 26% increase on Q220 (€63m) and was driven by a strong...

Edison Investment Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)