Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)</a> is currently trading at a Holdco discount of 20.25%, which is below -2.0x the standard deviation of the 180-day average Holdco discount.</li>
<li>We have noticed that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-nv-a891c739-a3af-4147-aaec-95028301d46a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33777:1" rel="noopener">Heineken NV (HEINY US)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)</a> ratio tends to bottom during bear markets and peak during extreme bull runs.</li>
<li>With the bull run ending and the Heineken to Heineken Holding ratio near the peak, it may be a good time for a Short Heineken and Long Heineken Holding trade.</li>
</ul>



Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) is currently trading at a Holdco discount of 20.25%, which is below -2.0x the standard deviation of the 180-day average Holdco discount.
We have noticed that the Heineken NV (HEINY US) to Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) ratio tends to bottom during bear markets and peak during extreme bull runs.
With the bull run ending and the Heineken to Heineken Holding ratio near the peak, it may be a good time for a Short Heineken and Long Heineken Holding trade.


Heineken Holdco Discount: About Time for a Change in Direction

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of holdcos have generally tightened during March: Alba, widened to 40.3%; GBL tightened to 30.7%; Heineken Holdings tightened to 17.7%; Industrivärden C tightened to 6.2%;</li>
<li>Investor B tightened to 5.7%; Porsche Automobile Holding (FY 2021 results) widened to 28.8%. There is just one DLC left in this report, Rio Tinto.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Porsche vs. VW (long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR), Rio Tinto.</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of holdcos have generally tightened during March: Alba, widened to 40.3%; GBL tightened to 30.7%; Heineken Holdings tightened to 17.7%; Industrivärden C tightened to 6.2%;
Investor B tightened to 5.7%; Porsche Automobile Holding (FY 2021 results) widened to 28.8%. There is just one DLC left in this report, Rio Tinto.
Recommended trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Porsche vs. VW (long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR), Rio Tinto.


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: March ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>There is just one DLC left in this report, Rio Tinto, following the unification of BHP and Shell.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed performance: Alba, 38.9%; GBL, 29%; Heineken Holdings, 19%; Industrivärden, 10.1%; Investor B, 11.61%; Kinnevik B, 3.3%(premium); Porsche Automobile Holding, 27.7%.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets, Investor vs. listed assets, Porsche vs. VW (long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR), Rio Tinto.</li>
</ul>


There is just one DLC left in this report, Rio Tinto, following the unification of BHP and Shell.
Discounts to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed performance: Alba, 38.9%; GBL, 29%; Heineken Holdings, 19%; Industrivärden, 10.1%; Investor B, 11.61%; Kinnevik B, 3.3%(premium); Porsche Automobile Holding, 27.7%.
Recommended trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets, Investor vs. listed assets, Porsche vs. VW (long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR), Rio Tinto.


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: February ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>There is just one DLC in this report, Rio Tinto, following the unification of BHP and Shell.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed performance: Alba, 41.3%; GBL, 26.9%; Heineken Holdings, 18.2%; Industrivärden, 12.1%; Investor AB, 11.6%; Kinnevik B, 8.8%(premium); Porsche Automobile Holding, 39.2%.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets, Investor vs. listed assets, Porsche vs. VW (long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR), Rio Tinto.</li>
</ul>


There is just one DLC in this report, Rio Tinto, following the unification of BHP and Shell.
Discounts to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed performance: Alba, 41.3%; GBL, 26.9%; Heineken Holdings, 18.2%; Industrivärden, 12.1%; Investor AB, 11.6%; Kinnevik B, 8.8%(premium); Porsche Automobile Holding, 39.2%.
Recommended trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets, Investor vs. listed assets, Porsche vs. VW (long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR), Rio Tinto.


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: January ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)</a> is currently trading at holdco discount of 17.1%, which is around -1.67x the standard deviation of the 90-day average holdco discount.</li>
<li>The holdco discount has generally followed an expanding trend during the last 18 months. (From around 6.0-10.0% pre-COVID to an average of 14% over the last 12 months).</li>
<li>With the sector seemingly overvalued and Heineken NV trading expensive to peers, we expect the discount to return to the pre-COVID level (6-11%) alongside a correction in the sector’s valuations.</li>
</ul>



Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) is currently trading at holdco discount of 17.1%, which is around -1.67x the standard deviation of the 90-day average holdco discount.
The holdco discount has generally followed an expanding trend during the last 18 months. (From around 6.0-10.0% pre-COVID to an average of 14% over the last 12 months).
With the sector seemingly overvalued and Heineken NV trading expensive to peers, we expect the discount to return to the pre-COVID level (6-11%) alongside a correction in the sector’s valuations.


Heineken Holdings: Holdco Discount Could Return to Pre-COVID Levels

Netherlands

Heineken Holding NV, through its subsidiary produces and distributes beverages internationally.  The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names. Heineken operates through numerous subsidiaries and associated companies worldwide.

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Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)

Heineken Holdco Discount: About Time for a Change in Direction

With the bull run about to end and the Heineken to Heineken Holding ratio near the peak, it may be a good time for a Short Heineken and Long...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: March ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered European holdcos have generally tightened during March. Recommended trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Porsche vs. VW (long...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: February ‘22 Report

Holding trades are generally bull market trades, just the opposite of the current markets following the Russian attack on Ukraine. Nevertheless,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: January ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of selected holdings have not shown a clear trend in January. Now there is just one DLC in this report, Rio Tinto, following the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Heineken Holdings: Holdco Discount Could Return to Pre-COVID Levels

When looking at the share price movement and NAV discount trends, we see that the NAV discount tend to expand during times of upside to share...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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