Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

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Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Multi Bintang Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a> experienced a massive inflection in its revenue with 21.9%/35% revenue/net profit growth as we approach the Q4 high season. </li>
<li>Earlier, parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21117:1" rel="noopener">Heineken NV (HEIA NA)</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener"></a> had flagged in its H1 2024 report that Indonesia was experiencing double-digit growth following excise duties implemented in January 2024.</li>
<li>Trading at 11.5x FY24/net cash with &gt;8% dividend yield and historical ROCEs averaging over 80%, we see a turning point in the share price now. </li>
</ul>



Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) experienced a massive inflection in its revenue with 21.9%/35% revenue/net profit growth as we approach the Q4 high season. 
Earlier, parent Heineken NV (HEIA NA)  had flagged in its H1 2024 report that Indonesia was experiencing double-digit growth following excise duties implemented in January 2024.
Trading at 11.5x FY24/net cash with &gt;8% dividend yield and historical ROCEs averaging over 80%, we see a turning point in the share price now. 


Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ): Massive Inflection in Q3 FY24 with Double Digit Growth !!

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a> is Indonesia's leading beer company, with a marketshare of 50% by volume. The company is 89% owned by Heineken. </li>
<li>The company has maintained an average 5 Yr/10 Yr ROCE of over 72%/82% and paid out 80-100% of its profits as dividends.  It is also net cash.</li>
<li>The stock boasts a 6.5%-7% dividend yield and trades at 14-15x PE if profits normalize due to increased tourism in Indonesia, where we believe most of the demand is. </li>
</ul>



Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) is Indonesia's leading beer company, with a marketshare of 50% by volume. The company is 89% owned by Heineken. 
The company has maintained an average 5 Yr/10 Yr ROCE of over 72%/82% and paid out 80-100% of its profits as dividends.  It is also net cash.
The stock boasts a 6.5%-7% dividend yield and trades at 14-15x PE if profits normalize due to increased tourism in Indonesia, where we believe most of the demand is. 


Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ): Recovery Story With High Cash Flow Generation and Dividend Pay Out

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during October. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 48.7% (vs. 46.6% as of 30 September); GBL, 40.9% (vs. 40.7%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 14% (14.9%); Industrivärden C, 2.4% (0.9%); Investor B, 2.8% (vs. 2.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.7% (vs. 35%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.5% (vs. 26%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during October. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 48.7% (vs. 46.6% as of 30 September); GBL, 40.9% (vs. 40.7%);
Heineken Holding, 14% (14.9%); Industrivärden C, 2.4% (0.9%); Investor B, 2.8% (vs. 2.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.7% (vs. 35%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.5% (vs. 26%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October'24 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 46.2% as of August 30); GBL, 40.7% (vs. 41.1%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 16.5%); Industrivärden C, 0.9% (vs. 1.7%); Investor B, 2.6% (vs. 1.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35% (vs. 35.7%). Rio DLC spread widened to 26% (vs. 19.8%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 46.2% as of August 30); GBL, 40.7% (vs. 41.1%);
Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 16.5%); Industrivärden C, 0.9% (vs. 1.7%); Investor B, 2.6% (vs. 1.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35% (vs. 35.7%). Rio DLC spread widened to 26% (vs. 19.8%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during August. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.2% (vs. 45.3% as of August 9); GBL, 41.1% (vs. 42.2%); </li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 16.5% (vs. 16%); Industrivärden C, 1.7% (vs. 2.2%); Investor B, 1.9% (vs.7.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.7% (vs. 34.6%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 19.8% (vs. 22.1%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during August. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.2% (vs. 45.3% as of August 9); GBL, 41.1% (vs. 42.2%); 
Heineken Holding, 16.5% (vs. 16%); Industrivärden C, 1.7% (vs. 2.2%); Investor B, 1.9% (vs.7.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.7% (vs. 34.6%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 19.8% (vs. 22.1%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August'24 Report

Netherlands

Heineken Holding NV, through its subsidiary produces and distributes beverages internationally.  The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names. Heineken operates through numerous subsidiaries and associated companies worldwide.

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Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)

Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ): Massive Inflection in Q3 FY24 with Double Digit Growth !!

We summarise the superb Multibintang (MLBI IJ) results—trading at 11.4x FY24 with a >8% dividend yield and a 10-year average ROCE>80%; this is a...

Sameer Taneja

Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ): Recovery Story With High Cash Flow Generation and Dividend Pay Out

Multi Bintang, Indonesia's largest brewer boasts a 6.5%-7% dividend yield and trades at 14-15x PE if profits normalize due to increased tourism in...

Sameer Taneja

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during October. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during August. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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