Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and Barro’s A$3.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$ A$3.09-3.53 per share valuation range. </li>
<li>The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as CRH, the offeror, is a Fortune 500 company headquartered in Ireland.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive, and this is a done deal. At the last close and for the 1 July payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.3%/8.4%.</li>
</ul>


The Adbri (ABC AU) IE considers CRH (CRH US) and Barro’s A$3.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$ A$3.09-3.53 per share valuation range. 
The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as CRH, the offeror, is a Fortune 500 company headquartered in Ireland.
The offer is attractive, and this is a done deal. At the last close and for the 1 July payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.3%/8.4%.


<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.</li>
<li>Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.</li>
<li>Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and Barro at A$3.20 per share, a 41.0% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.27 (13 December).</li>
<li>The offer requires shareholder and FIRB approval. FIRB approval for the bidder, CRH, should be forthcoming as it is a Fortune 500 company with HQ in Ireland. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive vs. peer multiples and historical ranges. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.9%/6.6%.</li>
</ul>



Adbri (ABC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with CRH (CRH US) and Barro at A$3.20 per share, a 41.0% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.27 (13 December).
The offer requires shareholder and FIRB approval. FIRB approval for the bidder, CRH, should be forthcoming as it is a Fortune 500 company with HQ in Ireland. 
The offer is attractive vs. peer multiples and historical ranges. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.9%/6.6%.


Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Binding A$3.20 Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> at A$9.00 per share, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price (20 February).</li>
<li>The offer has a ticking fee of A$0.02 per month (accrued daily) if the scheme’s effective date is delayed beyond 26 June. The offer requires FIRB approval. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive and represents a 15-year high. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/28.8%.</li>
</ul>



CSR Ltd (CSR AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) at A$9.00 per share, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price (20 February).
The offer has a ticking fee of A$0.02 per month (accrued daily) if the scheme’s effective date is delayed beyond 26 June. The offer requires FIRB approval. 
The offer is attractive and represents a 15-year high. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/28.8%.


CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Binding Proposal at A$9.00

Germany

Heidelberg Materials AG produces and markets building materials and solutions. The Company offers cement, aggregates, and ready-mixed concrete. Heidelberg Materials serves customers worldwide.

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Heidelberg Materials (HEI GR)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Adbri (ABC AU): Scheme Vote on 12 June

The offer is attractive, and this is a done deal. At the last close and for the 1 July payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.3%/8.4%.

Arun George

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Binding A$3.20 Offer

The offer is attractive vs. peer multiples and historical ranges. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.9%...

Arun George

CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Binding Proposal at A$9.00

The offer is attractive and represents a 15-year high. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/28.8%.

Arun George

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