IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and Barro at A$3.20 per share, a 41.0% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.27 (13 December).</li>
<li>The offer requires shareholder and FIRB approval. FIRB approval for the bidder, CRH, should be forthcoming as it is a Fortune 500 company with HQ in Ireland. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive vs. peer multiples and historical ranges. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.9%/6.6%.</li>
</ul>



Adbri (ABC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with CRH (CRH US) and Barro at A$3.20 per share, a 41.0% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.27 (13 December).
The offer requires shareholder and FIRB approval. FIRB approval for the bidder, CRH, should be forthcoming as it is a Fortune 500 company with HQ in Ireland. 
The offer is attractive vs. peer multiples and historical ranges. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.9%/6.6%.


Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Binding A$3.20 Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> at A$9.00 per share, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price (20 February).</li>
<li>The offer has a ticking fee of A$0.02 per month (accrued daily) if the scheme’s effective date is delayed beyond 26 June. The offer requires FIRB approval. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive and represents a 15-year high. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/28.8%.</li>
</ul>



CSR Ltd (CSR AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) at A$9.00 per share, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price (20 February).
The offer has a ticking fee of A$0.02 per month (accrued daily) if the scheme’s effective date is delayed beyond 26 June. The offer requires FIRB approval. 
The offer is attractive and represents a 15-year high. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/28.8%.


CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Binding Proposal at A$9.00

<ul>
<li>In response to media speculation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> confirmed a non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> at A$9.00, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Saint-Gobain is conducting confirmatory due diligence. CSR is at a trading halt concerning receiving a proposal regarding a potential material transaction involving CSR.</li>
<li>Shareholders should be supportive as the offer represents a 15-year high. The timing of a binding agreement is the key risk.  </li>
</ul>


In response to media speculation, Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) confirmed a non-binding proposal for CSR Ltd (CSR AU) at A$9.00, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
Saint-Gobain is conducting confirmatory due diligence. CSR is at a trading halt concerning receiving a proposal regarding a potential material transaction involving CSR.
Shareholders should be supportive as the offer represents a 15-year high. The timing of a binding agreement is the key risk.  


CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Non-Binding Proposal at A$9.00

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> has launched a takeover offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a>. The minimum consideration is A$6.05 (A$1.50 cash and 0.1116 SVW shares per BLD share).</li>
<li>Based on SVW reaching certain voting thresholds, the offer could be increased by an additional A$0.20 cash per share, implying a maximum consideration of A$6.25 per share.</li>
<li>While the low offer premium could deter acceptances, SVW aims to spur acceptances by warning it will delist BLD and not pay dividends for the foreseeable future. </li>
</ul>



Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) has launched a takeover offer for Boral Ltd (BLD AU). The minimum consideration is A$6.05 (A$1.50 cash and 0.1116 SVW shares per BLD share).
Based on SVW reaching certain voting thresholds, the offer could be increased by an additional A$0.20 cash per share, implying a maximum consideration of A$6.25 per share.
While the low offer premium could deter acceptances, SVW aims to spur acceptances by warning it will delist BLD and not pay dividends for the foreseeable future. 


Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)’s Carrot and Stick Offer

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/holcim-ltd-7f60ceaa-51af-4f85-ac5f-114595eb04f3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27916:1" rel="noopener">Holcim (HOLN SW)</a> announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.</li>
<li>Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. </li>
<li>Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.</li>
</ul>


Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, Holcim (HOLN SW) announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.
Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. 
Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.


Germany

Heidelberg Materials AG produces and markets building materials and solutions. The Company offers cement, aggregates, and ready-mixed concrete. Heidelberg Materials serves customers worldwide.

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Heidelberg Materials (HEI GR)

Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Binding A$3.20 Offer

The offer is attractive vs. peer multiples and historical ranges. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.9%...

Arun George

CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Binding Proposal at A$9.00

The offer is attractive and represents a 15-year high. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/28.8%.

Arun George

CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Non-Binding Proposal at A$9.00

Shareholders should be supportive as the offer represents a 15-year high. The timing of a binding agreement is the key risk.

Arun George

Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)’s Carrot and Stick Offer

While the low offer premium could deter acceptances, SVW aims to spur acceptances by warning it will delist BLD and not pay dividends for the...

Arun George

Value from US Spin-Off

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Binding A$3.20 Offer

The offer is attractive vs. peer multiples and historical ranges. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.9%...

Arun George

CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Binding Proposal at A$9.00

The offer is attractive and represents a 15-year high. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/28.8%.

Arun George

CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Non-Binding Proposal at A$9.00

Shareholders should be supportive as the offer represents a 15-year high. The timing of a binding agreement is the key risk.

Arun George

Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)’s Carrot and Stick Offer

While the low offer premium could deter acceptances, SVW aims to spur acceptances by warning it will delist BLD and not pay dividends for the...

Arun George

Value from US Spin-Off

​Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.