Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Results Down, Credibility Continues To Increase: We applaud for LIC Housing Finance (LICHF.IN) [LIC] for having the fortitude to properly manage its balance sheet during this difficult pandemic period. Its now paying off with respect to credit quality, with credit leverage fully anticipated in FY 4Q21.  As for the actual bottom-line, LIC reported FY 3Q21 INR 721.1 crs - declining INR 68.6 crs (8.7%) linked quarter. We fully anticipate bottom-line improvement in FY 4Q21; and*Credit Continues To Mend:  We note that net new NPLs at LIC were negative again as well – declining INR 47.3 crs for an annualized rate of NPL decline of 3.2% (versus a decline of 4.0% in the previous quarter). Reserves are likely where they need to be unlike most other Indian financials who have massive shortfalls.

*Results Down, Credibility Continues To Increase: We applaud for LIC Housing Finance (LICHF.IN) [LIC] for having the fortitude to properly manage its balance sheet during this difficult pandemic period. Its now paying off with respect to credit quality, with credit leverage fully anticipated in FY 4Q21.  As for the actual bottom-line, LIC reported FY 3Q21 INR 721.1 crs - declining INR 68.6 crs (8.7%) linked quarter. We fully anticipate bottom-line improvement in FY 4Q21; and*Credit Continues To Mend:  We note that net new NPLs at LIC were negative again as well – declining INR 47.3 crs for an annualized rate of NPL decline of 3.2% (versus a decline of 4.0% in the previous quarter). Reserves are likely where they need to be unlike most other Indian financials who have massive shortfalls.

LIC Housing Finance – This Is How It Should Be Done

*Bottom-line Worse Than It Looks: Axis Bank (AXSB.IN) [Axis] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 11.2 bn, declining INR 5.7 bn (33.8%) on a linked quarter basis. Given the hefty increase in net new NPLs, results would appear to be incredibly overstated. The largest delta during the quarter was an INR 8.2 bn (19.3%) increase in operating expenses, led by a compensation increase of 18.9% and an other opex increase of 19.6%; and *Poor Provisions: Without accounting for the linked quarter increase in restructured loans, we find that Axis’ net new NPL growth is extremely elevated at 84.5% - which is troubling even for an Indian bank. We would like to see Axis add INR 321 bn or 146% to loss reserves. Instead of overstating profit figures, Axis needs to begin taking the requisite losses in order to buttress reserves. Axis reserve shortfall, in our view, represents over five years of PBT and 25% plus of stated equity.

 *Bottom-line Worse Than It Looks: Axis Bank (AXSB.IN) [Axis] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 11.2 bn, declining INR 5.7 bn (33.8%) on a linked quarter basis. Given the hefty increase in net new NPLs, results would appear to be incredibly overstated. The largest delta during the quarter was an INR 8.2 bn (19.3%) increase in operating expenses, led by a compensation increase of 18.9% and an other opex increase of 19.6%; and *Poor Provisions: Without accounting for the linked quarter increase in restructured loans, we find that Axis’ net new NPL growth is extremely elevated at 84.5% - which is troubling even for an Indian bank. We would like to see Axis add INR 321 bn or 146% to loss reserves. Instead of overstating profit figures, Axis needs to begin taking the requisite losses in order to buttress reserves. Axis reserve shortfall, in our view, represents over five years of PBT and 25% plus of stated equity.  

*Weakened Results: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB.IN) [KMB] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 18.5 bn, declining INR 3.3 bn (15.2%) linked quarter. Results were challenged by two factors: a) an INR 2.3 bn (62.5%) increase in loss provisions which still appears light given the continued and accelerated breakdown in credit quality; and b) an INR 1.9 bn (9.2%) increase in costs led by a 14.0% increase in other operating expenses; and*Credit Risks Substantially Increasing: While KMB’s metrics were not nearly as ugly as Yes Bank’s (YES.IN), KMB’s credit break is tracking the financial sector - which is not exhibiting any sign of recovery. By our calculation, we find that both net new NPLs and impaired loans increased excessively with annualized growth rates of 122.8% and 143.2%, respectively. Given the worsening of KMB’s credit metrics and current weak reserve cover, we find that reserves at FY 3Q21 fall short by INR 78 bn - about three quarter of stated PBT.

*Weakened Results: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB.IN) [KMB] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 18.5 bn, declining INR 3.3 bn (15.2%) linked quarter. Results were challenged by two factors: a) an INR 2.3 bn (62.5%) increase in loss provisions which still appears light given the continued and accelerated breakdown in credit quality; and b) an INR 1.9 bn (9.2%) increase in costs led by a 14.0% increase in other operating expenses; and*Credit Risks Substantially Increasing: While KMB’s metrics were not nearly as ugly as Yes Bank’s (YES.IN), KMB’s credit break is tracking the financial sector - which is not exhibiting any sign of recovery. By our calculation, we find that both net new NPLs and impaired loans increased excessively with annualized growth rates of 122.8% and 143.2%, respectively. Given the worsening of KMB’s credit metrics and current weak reserve cover, we find that reserves at FY 3Q21 fall short by INR 78 bn - about three quarter of stated PBT.

Kotak Mahindra Bank – Credit Falling Off Of A Cliff

*Absolutely No Reason To Report Profitability With This Balance Sheet: State Bank of India’s (SBIN.IN) [SBI] 30%-owned Yes Bank (YES.IN) [Yes] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 1.6 bn, increasing INR 213 mn (16.5%) linked quarter.  However, when we exclude Yes’ interest recovery  of INR 5.4 bn during the period, core operating results amounted to a loss of INR 3.8 mn; and*Time To Sound The Alarm:  Even at such an elevated level of bad loans, Yes’ net new problem loan and net new NPL growth amounts to INR 115.1 bn and INR 22.8 bn, respectively, for annualized growth rates of 99.5% and 26%.By our calculation, reserves need to be buttressed  INR 863 bn or 234% of FY 3Q21 stated capital levels – or nearly 100 quarters of PBT based on the current period.   Yes’ Board approval to raise INR 100 bn in new equity seems futile given current capital needs. It’s probably fair to say that Yes is in more trouble today than it was when SBI stepped in for the rescue.

*Absolutely No Reason To Report Profitability With This Balance Sheet: State Bank of India’s (SBIN.IN) [SBI] 30%-owned Yes Bank (YES.IN) [Yes] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 1.6 bn, increasing INR 213 mn (16.5%) linked quarter.  However, when we exclude Yes’ interest recovery  of INR 5.4 bn during the period, core operating results amounted to a loss of INR 3.8 mn; and*Time To Sound The Alarm:  Even at such an elevated level of bad loans, Yes’ net new problem loan and net new NPL growth amounts to INR 115.1 bn and INR 22.8 bn, respectively, for annualized growth rates of 99.5% and 26%.By our calculation, reserves need to be buttressed  INR 863 bn or 234% of FY 3Q21 stated capital levels – or nearly 100 quarters of PBT based on the current period.   Yes’ Board approval to raise INR 100 bn in new equity seems futile given current capital needs. It’s probably fair to say that Yes is in more trouble today than it was when SBI stepped in for the rescue. 

*Provision Unnecessarily Lowered: Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] posted FY 3Q21 results of INR 11.5 bn, improving INR 1.8 bn (18.8%) linked quarter.  FY 3Q21 results were driven primarily by an INR 4.0 bn (20.5%) drop in the loss provision, despite a 123.4% linked quarter increase in gross NPLs;  and*Credit Challenges Far From Over With: The day of reckoning is coming for Bajaj as net new NPLs amounted to INR 23.0 bn at FY 3Q21 – increasing at 520% on an annualized basis. By our calculation, reserves need to increase INR 177 bn or nearly 8x  - representing nearly three years of PBT and over 50% of shareholder’s equity. Bajaj has actually lowered its loss provision guidance to between INR 59.25-59.75 bn for FY 2021 versus INR 60-63 bn earlier.

*Provision Unnecessarily Lowered: Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] posted FY 3Q21 results of INR 11.5 bn, improving INR 1.8 bn (18.8%) linked quarter.  FY 3Q21 results were driven primarily by an INR 4.0 bn (20.5%) drop in the loss provision, despite a 123.4% linked quarter increase in gross NPLs;  and*Credit Challenges Far From Over With: The day of reckoning is coming for Bajaj as net new NPLs amounted to INR 23.0 bn at FY 3Q21 – increasing at 520% on an annualized basis. By our calculation, reserves need to increase INR 177 bn or nearly 8x  - representing nearly three years of PBT and over 50% of shareholder’s equity. Bajaj has actually lowered its loss provision guidance to between INR 59.25-59.75 bn for FY 2021 versus INR 60-63 bn earlier.

India

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Limited is a life insurance firm. The Company offers protection, pension, savings and investment, and children's and women's plans to individuals. HDFC Standard Life Insurance serves customers in India and United Arab Emirates.

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HDFC Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)

LIC Housing Finance – This Is How It Should Be Done

LIC HOUSING FINANCE: We applaud for LIC for properly managing its balance sheet. FY 3Q21 results declined 8.7% linked quarter but expect bottom...

Thomas J. Monaco

Axis Bank – Evil Result

AXIS BANK: Axis reported a 33.8% decline in linked quarter FY 3Q21 results. Given the hefty increase in net new NPLs, results make little sense....

Thomas J. Monaco

Kotak Mahindra Bank – Credit Falling Off Of A Cliff

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK: KMB reported FY 3Q21 linked quarter results decline of 15.2%, driven primarily by a 62.5% increase in provisions which still...

Thomas J. Monaco

State Bank of India – On The Hook

STATE BANK OF INDIA: Yes Bank reported FY 3Q21 core operating losses INR 3.8 mn. Net new problem loan annualized growth rate of 99.5% and reserve...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bajaj Finance – Credit Disaster

BAJAJ FINANCE: BAF FY 3Q21 results increased 18.8% linked quarter, driven by a 20.5% drop in provisions despite a 123.4% increase in NPLs. We...

Thomas J. Monaco

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