Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div>In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a position where there are gains and the price ratio is near a turning point.</div><div>These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.</div><div>
These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.
Over the last couple of months, our pair trades have returned 2.54% on average.
</div>

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a position where there are gains and the price ratio is near a turning point.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.
These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.
Over the last couple of months, our pair trades have returned 2.54% on average.


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Edelweiss Financial Services / Equity Bottom-Up

*Negative Operating Performance: Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL.IN) [Edelweiss] reported yet another consolidated loss of INR 630.0 mn (post minority interest) for FY 3Q21 – declining INR 69.0 mn (12.3%) linked quarter. Excluding the gain on sale of securities, Edelweiss’ core operating results were actually frightening at a loss of INR 4.9 bn – down a further INR 106 mn (2.2%) over the same period. Nothing appears to be going right for Edelweiss, with management now beginning to discuss liquidity metrics; and *Wheels Falling Off The Bus: We are significantly troubled by the enormity of the breakdown in credit, as net new NPLs, by our calculation, increased INR 2.7 bn linked quarter for an annualized rate of growth of 106% - far and away the worst showing of any Indian financial under our coverage. Given the net new NPL increase, we find that loss reserves are light to tune of INR 15.7 bn or 2.3x stated equity of INR 6.9 bn at FY 3Q21.  Negative operating losses coupled with potentially challenged liquidity, and the poor credit cushion could invite regulatory intervention.

*Negative Operating Performance: Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL.IN) [Edelweiss] reported yet another consolidated loss of INR 630.0 mn (post minority interest) for FY 3Q21 – declining INR 69.0 mn (12.3%) linked quarter. Excluding the gain on sale of securities, Edelweiss’ core operating results were actually frightening at a loss of INR 4.9 bn – down a further INR 106 mn (2.2%) over the same period. Nothing appears to be going right for Edelweiss, with management now beginning to discuss liquidity metrics; and *Wheels Falling Off The Bus: We are significantly troubled by the enormity of the breakdown in credit, as net new NPLs, by our calculation, increased INR 2.7 bn linked quarter for an annualized rate of growth of 106% - far and away the worst showing of any Indian financial under our coverage. Given the net new NPL increase, we find that loss reserves are light to tune of INR 15.7 bn or 2.3x stated equity of INR 6.9 bn at FY 3Q21.  Negative operating losses coupled with potentially challenged liquidity, and the poor credit cushion could invite regulatory intervention. 

Edelweiss Financial Services – The Whole Package

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

In a significant event, Deepak Parekh, the non-executive chairman of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a>, agreed to <a href="https://www.sebi.gov.in/enforcement/orders/feb-2021/summary-settlement-order-in-respect-of-mr-deepak-parekh-the-matter-of-non-compliance-with-the-erstwhile-listing-agreement_49028.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">settle</a> with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) in connection with the latter’s investigation of non-compliance with the erstwhile Listing Agreement.  Parekh settled the issue by paying Rs 937,500 (US$ 12,727) to SEBI “without admitting or denying the findings of fact and conclusions of law…” As per SEBI’s settlement order, the capital market regulator had conducted an investigation into an inter-corporate deposit (ICD) of Rs 7.5 bn extended by HDFC to Gliders Buildcon Realtors, a group company of Piramal Realty, in FY2012. Sometime in FY2015, at the request of Gliders Buildcon, HDFC converted the ICD into a term loan. Parekh was chairman of HDFC, and was on the committee which approved the loan. At the same time, he also belonged to the Advisory Board of the Piramal Group, including Piramal Realty, for which he received advisory fees for the calendar years 2011 to 2015 and for the FY2017 and FY2018. The order stated, “HDFC has adopted a Code of Conduct for all its Directors and Senior Management Personnel in terms of Clause 49 (I) (D) of the erstwhile listing agreement. However, the applicant failed to comply with the Code of Conduct of HDFC Ltd., resulting in the violation of Clause 49 (I) (D) (ii) of the erstwhile listing agreement.”What is surprising is that an individual of Parekh’s stature and experience, in a company which is a favourite of foreign investors and professes to maintain high standards of corporate governance and transparency, could have committed such a violation. Normally, board directors disclose their interests and recuse themselves from discussions where there may be even perceived conflicts of interest. In this particular case, Parekh was on the HDFC committee which approved the conversion of an ICD into a term loan for Gliders Buildcon, while also accepting advisory fees from the Piramal group. SEBI’s settlement order throws a spotlight on Parekh’s advisory role to companies (especially in real estate), from which he earns fees, while simultaneously being on the important loan committee of HDFC, which extends loans to corporates, many of whom are engaged in real estate. It is also disheartening that HDFC has neither publicly clarified this issue nor provided any explanation for the conduct of their non-executive chairman.The business media, apart from summarising the SEBI settlement order, has completely ignored the event, by neither analysing the implications nor providing additional information. Given the iconic stature of Parekh in India’s financial system and the prominence of HDFC, one expected the media and the sell-side to further investigate and comment on this important development. Sadly, the state of business journalism and sell-side research is such that when it comes to prominent companies and iconic business leaders, critical reporting and analysis are eschewed. The critical issue before HDFC from a corporate governance perspective is how the board of directors will view the payment by its chairman in settlement of an investigation by the capital markets regulator. Although the settlement order clearly states that the monetary payment does not imply admission of guilt or wrong doing, HDFC’s <a href="https://www.hdfc.com/allpolicies/Policy_on_Fit_and_Proper_Criteria_HDFC.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fit and Proper Criteria</a>  for its directors, has a section on whether its directors “have come to the adverse notice of regulators such as SEBI…” As HDFC accepts deposits from the public, has a foreign shareholding of 72% and is the parent of prominent companies in the financial system such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)</a> and HDFC Ergo General Insurance, the conduct of its board directors, and especially its chairman, must be pristine. The role of HDFC’s independent directors and its Nominations and Remuneration Committee (NRC) in responding to Parekh’s payment settlement with SEBI and his eligibility to continue as a director will be closely watched by the capital market, and it may also set an example of how boards should respond when faced with such a situation. It is worth recalling that, even though there was no conclusive evidence of his wife’s wrongdoing, Caesar declared that “Caesar’s wife must be above suspicion”, and divorced her.

In a significant event, Deepak Parekh, the non-executive chairman of HDFC Limited (HDFC IN), agreed to settle with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) in connection with the latter’s investigation of non-compliance with the erstwhile Listing Agreement.  Parekh settled the issue by paying Rs 937,500 (US$ 12,727) to SEBI “without admitting or denying the findings of fact and conclusions of law…” As per SEBI’s settlement order, the capital market regulator had conducted an investigation into an inter-corporate deposit (ICD) of Rs 7.5 bn extended by HDFC to Gliders Buildcon Realtors, a group company of Piramal Realty, in FY2012. Sometime in FY2015, at the request of Gliders Buildcon, HDFC converted the ICD into a term loan. Parekh was chairman of HDFC, and was on the committee which approved the loan. At the same time, he also belonged to the Advisory Board of the Piramal Group, including Piramal Realty, for which he received advisory fees for the calendar years 2011 to 2015 and for the FY2017 and FY2018. The order stated, “HDFC has adopted a Code of Conduct for all its Directors and Senior Management Personnel in terms of Clause 49 (I) (D) of the erstwhile listing agreement. However, the applicant failed to comply with the Code of Conduct of HDFC Ltd., resulting in the violation of Clause 49 (I) (D) (ii) of the erstwhile listing agreement.”What is surprising is that an individual of Parekh’s stature and experience, in a company which is a favourite of foreign investors and professes to maintain high standards of corporate governance and transparency, could have committed such a violation. Normally, board directors disclose their interests and recuse themselves from discussions where there may be even perceived conflicts of interest. In this particular case, Parekh was on the HDFC committee which approved the conversion of an ICD into a term loan for Gliders Buildcon, while also accepting advisory fees from the Piramal group. SEBI’s settlement order throws a spotlight on Parekh’s advisory role to companies (especially in real estate), from which he earns fees, while simultaneously being on the important loan committee of HDFC, which extends loans to corporates, many of whom are engaged in real estate. It is also disheartening that HDFC has neither publicly clarified this issue nor provided any explanation for the conduct of their non-executive chairman.The business media, apart from summarising the SEBI settlement order, has completely ignored the event, by neither analysing the implications nor providing additional information. Given the iconic stature of Parekh in India’s financial system and the prominence of HDFC, one expected the media and the sell-side to further investigate and comment on this important development. Sadly, the state of business journalism and sell-side research is such that when it comes to prominent companies and iconic business leaders, critical reporting and analysis are eschewed. The critical issue before HDFC from a corporate governance perspective is how the board of directors will view the payment by its chairman in settlement of an investigation by the capital markets regulator. Although the settlement order clearly states that the monetary payment does not imply admission of guilt or wrong doing, HDFC’s Fit and Proper Criteria  for its directors, has a section on whether its directors “have come to the adverse notice of regulators such as SEBI…” As HDFC accepts deposits from the public, has a foreign shareholding of 72% and is the parent of prominent companies in the financial system such as HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN), HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN), HDFC Standard Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN) and HDFC Ergo General Insurance, the conduct of its board directors, and especially its chairman, must be pristine. The role of HDFC’s independent directors and its Nominations and Remuneration Committee (NRC) in responding to Parekh’s payment settlement with SEBI and his eligibility to continue as a director will be closely watched by the capital market, and it may also set an example of how boards should respond when faced with such a situation. It is worth recalling that, even though there was no conclusive evidence of his wife’s wrongdoing, Caesar declared that “Caesar’s wife must be above suspicion”, and divorced her. 

The Significance of Caesar’s Wife for the HDFC Board

Event-Driven

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.The June review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 November to 30 April to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.At the current time, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> being included in the index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN)</a> being deleted.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> could be included in the index at the expense of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> if it jumps one rank - it has around two and a half months to do that, though each passing day will require a bigger outperformance to make that possible.

The S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.The June review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 November to 30 April to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.At the current time, we see Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) being included in the index and Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN) being deleted.Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) could be included in the index at the expense of Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) if it jumps one rank - it has around two and a half months to do that, though each passing day will require a bigger outperformance to make that possible.

Sensex June21 Index Rebalance Preview: Deletion Almost Certain; Addition a Wild Card for Now

* It Just Keeps Getting Worse: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) [PNB] reported net income of INR 5.1 bn, declining INR 1.1 bn (18.5%) linked quarter. Three factors drove the poor result: a) net interest income declined INR 627 mn (0.8%) despite loan growth of 1.2%, as the NIM declined 9 bp to 2.93%; b) a loss provision increase of INR 5.8 bn (14.0%). Despite the increase, provisioins still fell short given the acerating level of credit risk; and c) a 10.6% linked quarter increase in PNB’s tax rate to 47.2%, which detracted INR 1.0 bn from the bottom-line; and*Credit Risk Leads to Capital Shortfall: Inclusive of the INR 9.6 bn NCO, we find that PNB’s level of net new NPLs actually increased INR 82.6 bn or 33.3% on an annualized basis. While we have very little confidence in PNB’s reporting of problem assets at this stage, we take their word for current NPLs and find that at a minimum loss reserves are light by at least INR 730 mn  - or approximately 100% of stated book value. This is without accounting for the delayed or backlog provisions associated fraud accounts and ageing provisions to be complete in FY 1H21.

* It Just Keeps Getting Worse: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) [PNB] reported net income of INR 5.1 bn, declining INR 1.1 bn (18.5%) linked quarter. Three factors drove the poor result: a) net interest income declined INR 627 mn (0.8%) despite loan growth of 1.2%, as the NIM declined 9 bp to 2.93%; b) a loss provision increase of INR 5.8 bn (14.0%). Despite the increase, provisioins still fell short given the acerating level of credit risk; and c) a 10.6% linked quarter increase in PNB’s tax rate to 47.2%, which detracted INR 1.0 bn from the bottom-line; and*Credit Risk Leads to Capital Shortfall: Inclusive of the INR 9.6 bn NCO, we find that PNB’s level of net new NPLs actually increased INR 82.6 bn or 33.3% on an annualized basis. While we have very little confidence in PNB’s reporting of problem assets at this stage, we take their word for current NPLs and find that at a minimum loss reserves are light by at least INR 730 mn  - or approximately 100% of stated book value. This is without accounting for the delayed or backlog provisions associated fraud accounts and ageing provisions to be complete in FY 1H21.  

India

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Limited is a life insurance firm. The Company offers protection, pension, savings and investment, and children's and women's plans to individuals. HDFC Standard Life Insurance serves customers in India and United Arab Emirates.

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HDFC Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)

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Punjab National Bank – Match Is Lit

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Thomas J. Monaco

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