Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/558" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1">HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN)</a> reports substandard loans at INR57.2 billion in 3Q18. The increase QoQ is substantial at nearly INR5 billion. With total non-performing loans (NPLs) at INR91 billion, the risk of worsening loan migration has negative implications for future credit costs. We believe we are also seeing this in recent figures within the three categories of Doubtful loans. With stricter accounting for bad loans from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and also with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ifrs-9-drives-50-higher-provisions" target="_blank">IFRS 9</a>, even haloed HDFC…

HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN) reports substandard loans at INR57.2 billion in 3Q18. The increase QoQ is substantial at nearly INR5 billion. With total non-performing loans (NPLs) at INR91 billion, the risk of worsening loan migration has negative implications for future credit costs. We believe we are also seeing this in recent figures within the three categories of Doubtful loans. With stricter accounting for bad loans from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and also with IFRS 9, even haloed HDFC…

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha, ANTYA Investments

ANTYA Investments

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha

Investing That Empowers You

ANTYA Investments Inc., regulated by the Ontario Securities Commission, is registered to provide wealth management services in Canada. ANTYA manages institutional, and high net-worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis. Our investment philosophy embraces a Core-Satellite approach.  The core of the portfolio is chosen from a group of fifteen asset classes. A few stock specific asymmetrical investment opportunities comprise the satellite segment. ANTYA invests only in global, large capitalization, and investment grade companies.  

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Reserve Bank of India upheld the status-quo by maintaining the liquidity adjustment facility rate at 6%. However, the vote was not unanimous, with one member on the committee voting for an increase to 6.25%. The tone of the monetary policy statement is cautious, and given tightening global credit conditions, if rates stay put the INR will depreciate putting additional pressure on already heightened inflation expectations. If rates rise it could dampen economic growth. Given that the central bank's primary job is inflation targeting first and the rest later, we advise erring on the side of caution.

The Reserve Bank of India upheld the status-quo by maintaining the liquidity adjustment facility rate at 6%. However, the vote was not unanimous, with one member on the committee voting for an increase to 6.25%. The tone of the monetary policy statement is cautious, and given tightening global credit conditions, if rates stay put the INR will depreciate putting additional pressure on already heightened inflation expectations. If rates rise it could dampen economic growth. Given that the central bank's primary job is inflation targeting first and the rest later, we advise erring on the side of caution.

The Reserve Bank of India–Between a Rock and a Hard Place, Higher Yields & Higher NPAs Forthcoming?

While the market may have liked the HDFC Bank numbers, to us the figures show that there is indeed inherent weakness coming through. The third largest bank in India just reported staggering growth in its total impairment costs. While net profit numbers were only slightly dented by the surge in impairment costs, there are increasingly signs that this overly-adored-bank may not be super-bank at all.HDFC Bank – Unconsolidated total impairment costs (INRm)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/024/781/original/daniel%20tab1.png?1492948217" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="24781"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: SNL Financial</div>HDFC Bank saw its total…

While the market may have liked the HDFC Bank numbers, to us the figures show that there is indeed inherent weakness coming through. The third largest bank in India just reported staggering growth in its total impairment costs. While net profit numbers were only slightly dented by the surge in impairment costs, there are increasingly signs that this overly-adored-bank may not be super-bank at all.HDFC Bank – Unconsolidated total impairment costs (INRm)Source: SNL FinancialHDFC Bank saw its total…

Head of Research at Fusion Wealth Management Ltd

Michael McGaughy

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US)

HDFC Bank – Granular NPL Data Worries

HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN) reports substandard loans at INR57.2 billion in 3Q18. The increase QoQ is substantial at nearly INR5 billion. With...

Daniel Tabbush

The Reserve Bank of India–Between a Rock and a Hard Place, Higher Yields & Higher NPAs Forthcoming?

The Reserve Bank of India upheld the status-quo by maintaining the liquidity adjustment facility rate at 6%. However, the vote was not unanimous,...

ANTYA Investments

HDFC Bank: 138% Higher Provision Costs

While the market may have liked the HDFC Bank numbers, to us the figures show that there is indeed inherent weakness coming through. The third...

Daniel Tabbush

Bitcoin - The View From Lagos

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value. I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality...

Michael McGaughy

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the...

Hemindra Hazari

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