Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Russia and India have looked the riskiest EM banking sectors, the former having seen a huge bailout of Otkritie and B&amp;N while India’s state banks have been in suspended animation since 2015.</li>
<li>China has a structural surplus of savings and India a shortage (partly because of the cultural gold obsession), driving a weak credit multiplier, underinvestment and requiring high real rates.</li>
<li>The convoluted recapitalization plan aims to boost credit growth standing at just over 6% y/y (down 4.7ppts in a year)…</li>
</ul>


Russia and India have looked the riskiest EM banking sectors, the former having seen a huge bailout of Otkritie and B&amp;N while India’s state banks have been in suspended animation since 2015.
China has a structural surplus of savings and India a shortage (partly because of the cultural gold obsession), driving a weak credit multiplier, underinvestment and requiring high real rates.
The convoluted recapitalization plan aims to boost credit growth standing at just over 6% y/y (down 4.7ppts in a year)…


India Props Up State Banks Yet Again, Korean Chaebol Moment of Truth

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recapitalization plan is fundamentally flawed. It is not large enough. It does not address processes, systems. It does not address inherent weakness in the corporate sector. Recent results for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10669" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10669:1">IDBI Bank Ltd (IDBI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/544" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:544:1">Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN)</a> show all too clearly how any new monies provided to government owned banks, is immediately at risk of loss. This recap plan would essentially be the first of several, not an end all.What stands out with IDBI and…

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recapitalization plan is fundamentally flawed. It is not large enough. It does not address processes, systems. It does not address inherent weakness in the corporate sector. Recent results for IDBI Bank Ltd (IDBI IN) and Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN) show all too clearly how any new monies provided to government owned banks, is immediately at risk of loss. This recap plan would essentially be the first of several, not an end all.What stands out with IDBI and…

Senior investment analyst

Pallavi Deshpande

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Results</h2>ICICI Bank's 2Q18 net profit was 19% below consensus expectations due to a decline in treasury income (excluding the stake sale in a subsidiary). Core operating performance was in line with expectations with net interest income growth of 8.7% YoY and NIM at 3.3% (flat QoQ, +2 bps YoY) and benign operating cost growth of 4.6% YoY. Loan growth was muted at 6% YoY as it continues to trim its international book. Slippages declined QoQ, with retail slippages surprising positively with a…

ResultsICICI Bank's 2Q18 net profit was 19% below consensus expectations due to a decline in treasury income (excluding the stake sale in a subsidiary). Core operating performance was in line with expectations with net interest income growth of 8.7% YoY and NIM at 3.3% (flat QoQ, +2 bps YoY) and benign operating cost growth of 4.6% YoY. Loan growth was muted at 6% YoY as it continues to trim its international book. Slippages declined QoQ, with retail slippages surprising positively with a…

ICICI Bank 2Q18: Rising Risk of NPL Divergence with RBI

The headlines completely mislead, appearing warm, fuzzy on quarterly earnings. The reality is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/768" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> saw its unconsolidated provision expenses rise 34%, in 2Q18 (ending September 2017). Part of this will be due more proper loan classification, in line with central bank guidelines. But the reality remains, that Axis is now reporting 5.9% gross bad loans and where ‘slippages’ continue, suggesting deteriorating underlying credit metrics. At the same time, we are not sure that…

The headlines completely mislead, appearing warm, fuzzy on quarterly earnings. The reality is that Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) saw its unconsolidated provision expenses rise 34%, in 2Q18 (ending September 2017). Part of this will be due more proper loan classification, in line with central bank guidelines. But the reality remains, that Axis is now reporting 5.9% gross bad loans and where ‘slippages’ continue, suggesting deteriorating underlying credit metrics. At the same time, we are not sure that…

India’s real GDP growth continues to trend lower. We are doubtful that this is news or that people are unfamiliar with the chart of its regression.  What may be more interesting in the first instance is putting the country’s benign loan growth in perspective, and secondly long-term credit metrics of one the most aggressive lenders into this sustained downturn: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/558" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1">HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN)</a>.  Domestic credit growth is running at 8% in India as at August 2017, year on year. This is half the average…

India’s real GDP growth continues to trend lower. We are doubtful that this is news or that people are unfamiliar with the chart of its regression.  What may be more interesting in the first instance is putting the country’s benign loan growth in perspective, and secondly long-term credit metrics of one the most aggressive lenders into this sustained downturn: HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN).  Domestic credit growth is running at 8% in India as at August 2017, year on year. This is half the average…

A Long-Term Perspective on HDFC Bank Is Worthwhile as India's Slowdown Continues

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

India Props Up State Banks Yet Again, Korean Chaebol Moment of Truth

Russia and India have looked the riskiest EM banking sectors, the former having seen a huge bailout of Otkritie and B&N while India’s state...

Sean Maher

More Losses at India State Banks

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recapitalization plan is fundamentally flawed. It is not large enough. It does not address processes, systems. It...

Daniel Tabbush

ICICI Bank 2Q18: Rising Risk of NPL Divergence with RBI

ResultsICICI Bank's 2Q18 net profit was 19% below consensus expectations due to a decline in treasury income (excluding the stake sale in a...

Pallavi Deshpande

Dramatic Deterioration At Axis Bank

The headlines completely mislead, appearing warm, fuzzy on quarterly earnings. The reality is that Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) saw its unconsolidated...

Daniel Tabbush

A Long-Term Perspective on HDFC Bank Is Worthwhile as India's Slowdown Continues

India’s real GDP growth continues to trend lower. We are doubtful that this is news or that people are unfamiliar with the chart of its...

Daniel Tabbush

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