Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Unique in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/558" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1">HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN)</a>'s newly released annual report for fiscal year 2018, is its table on asset classification 'divergence.'  It is not only testimony to a stricter Reserve Bank of India (RBI) but that this haloed-bank is not immune from credit risk or the perennial under-reporting of bad loans as with peer banks. The tables that always draw ire from analysts are those on restructured loans, as they are prepared in landscape format, unlike the rest of the report. The data is…

Unique in HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN)'s newly released annual report for fiscal year 2018, is its table on asset classification 'divergence.'  It is not only testimony to a stricter Reserve Bank of India (RBI) but that this haloed-bank is not immune from credit risk or the perennial under-reporting of bad loans as with peer banks. The tables that always draw ire from analysts are those on restructured loans, as they are prepared in landscape format, unlike the rest of the report. The data is…

HDFC Bank – Newly Released Annual Report Holds Troves of Granular Data, Not All of Which Is Positive

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22832" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22832:1">INR (USDINR CURNCY)</a> reached a new low at INR69.1 to the USD. This is despite the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) rate rise several weeks ago.  Raising rates further, to protect the currency is typically a poor solution, as we have seen in many countries in the past. This is all the more so while in the throes of a banking crisis.  But what many may have missed is the surge in USD borrowings over the latest available data, in the month of December 2017. In that month, growth was 12.6% YoY…

The INR (USDINR CURNCY) reached a new low at INR69.1 to the USD. This is despite the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) rate rise several weeks ago.  Raising rates further, to protect the currency is typically a poor solution, as we have seen in many countries in the past. This is all the more so while in the throes of a banking crisis.  But what many may have missed is the surge in USD borrowings over the latest available data, in the month of December 2017. In that month, growth was 12.6% YoY…

India – Higher USD Debt with Weakening FX Rate Is Not a Good Combination

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* New COO, essentially replaces current CEO - who is under investigation; and * As discussed in our May 9, 2018 note, this bank is an absolute mess which in all likelihood should fail . We wish COO Bakshi all the best. However, this bank would be a challenge to even the best turnaround artists. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>ICICI Bank (ICICI.IN/ICN.US) announced the appointment of Mr. Sandeep Bakhshi – an ICICI veteran – as a full-time director and Chief Operating Officer (COO). subject to regulatory…

* New COO, essentially replaces current CEO - who is under investigation; and * As discussed in our May 9, 2018 note, this bank is an absolute mess which in all likelihood should fail . We wish COO Bakshi all the best. However, this bank would be a challenge to even the best turnaround artists. Investment SummaryICICI Bank (ICICI.IN/ICN.US) announced the appointment of Mr. Sandeep Bakhshi – an ICICI veteran – as a full-time director and Chief Operating Officer (COO). subject to regulatory…

ICICI Bank - New COO Cannot Turn The Titanic Around

* Solid Franchise Buttressed By Strong Three Year Plan;* NBFC is the Cherry On Top; and * SOE Bank Headaches Suggests Much Low Hanging Fruit. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>HDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN/HDB.US) continues to post strong net profit growth underpinned by strong lending growth (19% YoY in F18) with market share gains both in retail and wholesale. HDFC Bank, unlike its competitors, also has de miminis balance sheet stress, while its cost of funds is the lowest among all Indian banks. More importantly, HDFC…

* Solid Franchise Buttressed By Strong Three Year Plan;* NBFC is the Cherry On Top; and * SOE Bank Headaches Suggests Much Low Hanging Fruit. Investment SummaryHDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN/HDB.US) continues to post strong net profit growth underpinned by strong lending growth (19% YoY in F18) with market share gains both in retail and wholesale. HDFC Bank, unlike its competitors, also has de miminis balance sheet stress, while its cost of funds is the lowest among all Indian banks. More importantly, HDFC…

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised interest rates by 25bps in early June.  While one could argue that the inflationary pressures from oil prices have more to do with supply than demand, this is none the less the driver of the rate rise. If micro data is a better reflection of the true health of corporate India, with poor financial metrics and high, worsening bank non-performing loans (NPLs), then raised interest rates can be a net negative. While not particularly large in absolute terms…

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised interest rates by 25bps in early June.  While one could argue that the inflationary pressures from oil prices have more to do with supply than demand, this is none the less the driver of the rate rise. If micro data is a better reflection of the true health of corporate India, with poor financial metrics and high, worsening bank non-performing loans (NPLs), then raised interest rates can be a net negative. While not particularly large in absolute terms…

India Banks – Rising Rates Can Drive Marginal NPLs

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

HDFC Bank – Newly Released Annual Report Holds Troves of Granular Data, Not All of Which Is Positive

Unique in HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN)'s newly released annual report for fiscal year 2018, is its table on asset classification 'divergence.' It...

Daniel Tabbush

India – Higher USD Debt with Weakening FX Rate Is Not a Good Combination

The INR (USDINR CURNCY) reached a new low at INR69.1 to the USD. This is despite the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) rate rise several weeks ago. ...

Daniel Tabbush

ICICI Bank - New COO Cannot Turn The Titanic Around

* New COO, essentially replaces current CEO - who is under investigation; and * As discussed in our May 9, 2018 note, this bank is an absolute mess...

Thomas J. Monaco

HDFC Bank – Rocking and Rolling

* Solid Franchise Buttressed By Strong Three Year Plan;* NBFC is the Cherry On Top; and * SOE Bank Headaches Suggests Much Low Hanging Fruit....

Thomas J. Monaco

India Banks – Rising Rates Can Drive Marginal NPLs

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised interest rates by 25bps in early June. While one could argue that the inflationary pressures from oil...

Daniel Tabbush

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