Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to the ongoing earnings season, for the next two weeks, we will temporarily deviate from our regular format and instead focus on reported earnings.</li>
<li>We focus on reported earnings, performance against expectations, and the top three highlights that we believe are important from earnings calls for each company that is usually under coverage.</li>
<li>Besides the Bullish/Bearish names, we draw attention to the ones that are highlighted as interesting and would be pleased to engage in discussions about any of them.</li>
</ul>


Due to the ongoing earnings season, for the next two weeks, we will temporarily deviate from our regular format and instead focus on reported earnings.
We focus on reported earnings, performance against expectations, and the top three highlights that we believe are important from earnings calls for each company that is usually under coverage.
Besides the Bullish/Bearish names, we draw attention to the ones that are highlighted as interesting and would be pleased to engage in discussions about any of them.


[Week 8] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Part I

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Loan mix is improving, away from non-INR loans, asset mix is improving with less RIDF bonds, and bank is seeing an expanding LDR.  </li>
<li>Loss loans and doubtful loans are in major decline, they are less important to total NPLs, and still credit costs were high in 1Q24, likely overly conservative.</li>
<li>Credit growth is now at 22.6% YoY from 14.9% YoY one year ago, with consistent acceleration. With just 6% loan share, growth can remain high. </li>
</ul>


Loan mix is improving, away from non-INR loans, asset mix is improving with less RIDF bonds, and bank is seeing an expanding LDR.  
Loss loans and doubtful loans are in major decline, they are less important to total NPLs, and still credit costs were high in 1Q24, likely overly conservative.
Credit growth is now at 22.6% YoY from 14.9% YoY one year ago, with consistent acceleration. With just 6% loan share, growth can remain high. 


Axis Bank - Loan Mix Improving Dramatically | Strong ALM | Credit Costs Likely to Narrow Sharply

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> launched its US$500m HK IPO earlier in the week, with more than half of the Offer Shares going to its pre-IPO shareholders.</li>
<li>It was a busy week for placements as well, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>'s stealing the spotlight with its equity/debt raising, after Albemarle withdrew its acquisition bid. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) launched its US$500m HK IPO earlier in the week, with more than half of the Offer Shares going to its pre-IPO shareholders.
It was a busy week for placements as well, with Liontown Resources (LTR AU)'s stealing the spotlight with its equity/debt raising, after Albemarle withdrew its acquisition bid. 


ECM Weekly (22nd Oct 2023) - J&T, Cuscal, Liontown, Cainiao, ZJLD, Taiwan Cement, Zomato, Hana Micro

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Foreign investors sold ~5.7m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> from July to September. That selling has pushed foreign room above the key 15% threshold.</li>
<li>With foreign room crossing 15%, passive trackers will need to buy a chunk of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> stock at the end of November.</li>
<li>There will be positioning on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> though it appears some of that was taken off in the last couple of days.</li>
</ul>


Foreign investors sold ~5.7m shares of Indusind Bank (IIB IN) from July to September. That selling has pushed foreign room above the key 15% threshold.
With foreign room crossing 15%, passive trackers will need to buy a chunk of Indusind Bank (IIB IN) stock at the end of November.
There will be positioning on Indusind Bank (IIB IN) though it appears some of that was taken off in the last couple of days.


IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Passive Buying Coming Up as Foreign Room Crosses Key Threshold

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asirvad-micro-finance-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40211:1" rel="noopener">Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (1053198D IN)</a> is looking to raise around US$183m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial, Kotak, Nomura, SBI Caps.</li>
<li>Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (Asirvad) is a non-banking finance company (NBFC), and a microfinance institution (MFI) offering small loans to low-income women in India.</li>
<li>As per the CRISIL report, Asirvad was the largest MFI in India in terms of geographical coverage and third largest MFI in India in terms of AUM, in FY23.</li>
</ul>



Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (1053198D IN) is looking to raise around US$183m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial, Kotak, Nomura, SBI Caps.
Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (Asirvad) is a non-banking finance company (NBFC), and a microfinance institution (MFI) offering small loans to low-income women in India.
As per the CRISIL report, Asirvad was the largest MFI in India in terms of geographical coverage and third largest MFI in India in terms of AUM, in FY23.


Asirvad Micro Finance Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

[Week 8] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Part I

Deviating from our usual format due to earnings season, this is a long but must-read for anyone who is keen to track the earnings of Indian...

Pranav Bhavsar

Axis Bank - Loan Mix Improving Dramatically | Strong ALM | Credit Costs Likely to Narrow Sharply

LDR is improving dramatically, loan mix is better, less low-yield bonds supports NIM. Loss and doubtful loans are less important, so credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

ECM Weekly (22nd Oct 2023) - J&T, Cuscal, Liontown, Cainiao, ZJLD, Taiwan Cement, Zomato, Hana Micro

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Clarence Chu

IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Passive Buying Coming Up as Foreign Room Crosses Key Threshold

Foreign investors sold IndusInd Bank from July to Sep. With foreign room crossing 15%, passive trackers will need to buy IndusInd in Nov. There is...

Brian Freitas

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (1053198D IN) is looking to raise around US$183m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial,...

Clarence Chu

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