Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ)</a> is looking to raise up to US$868m in its Indonesian IPO. </li>
<li>Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ) is looking to raise up to US$868m in its Indonesian IPO. 
Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.


Amman Mineral International IPO - Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.</li>
<li>EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.
At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.
EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.


Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

iShares Global Healthcare ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.</li>
<li>MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
<li>This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe</li>
</ul>


As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.
MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).
This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe


Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

South Africa

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is a gold-mining and exploration company which produces gold from its operations in South Africa and Papua New Guinea.

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Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ)

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

Amman Mineral International IPO - Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ) is looking to raise up to US$868m in its Indonesian IPO. In this note, we undertake a quick peer...

Ethan Aw

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

We have recommended shifting to defensives throughout Feb/March due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on $ACWI. We highlight buys within...

Vermilion Research

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