HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Transcenta Holding / Equity Capital Markets

Recently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transcenta-holding-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33523:1" rel="noopener">Transcenta Holding (THL HK)</a> has passed the listing hearing of the HKEX and is expected to be listed on the main board in the near future. Transcenta is a clinical stage global biopharmaceutical company that integrates the capacities of discovery, research, development, manufacturing and business development, with nine product candidates in the pipeline, eight of which are oncology drug candidates. This insight mainly analyzed the important product candidates (such as MSB2311, TST001, TST005 and MSB0254) in the pipeline and related concerns.

Recently, Transcenta Holding (THL HK) has passed the listing hearing of the HKEX and is expected to be listed on the main board in the near future. Transcenta is a clinical stage global biopharmaceutical company that integrates the capacities of discovery, research, development, manufacturing and business development, with nine product candidates in the pipeline, eight of which are oncology drug candidates. This insight mainly analyzed the important product candidates (such as MSB2311, TST001, TST005 and MSB0254) in the pipeline and related concerns. 

Pre-IPO Transcenta Holding - Insights on Pipeline and the Concerns

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Equity Bottom-Up

During the first week of 2019, we visited <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23679" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1">Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc (2269 HK)</a> headquarters in Shanghai, as well as spend time touring the lab. Historically and still now we hold a long-term positive view of the stock as a vehicle to invest in the global biotech/biopharma sector – especially in China - without taking single drug risk.  After our team spent hundreds of hours researching the biologics CDMO (contract development and manufacturing organization) market, the company’s pipelines (187 projects) and customer distribution, we believe that the stock valuation is excessive to own at this price.  The business model of WuXi Biologics’ CDMO is return-on-asset (ROA) in nature, not return-on-IP as in the case of biotech/biopharma, as the management claims. Manufacturing business by definition is cyclical, as demand and supply mismatch often times.  We fear that as massive capacity comes to the market – as detailed later in the note - all players will be forced to compromise on price.  We have changed our stock recommendation from POSITIVE to NEUTRAL, with a price target of ~45 HKD.

During the first week of 2019, we visited Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc (2269 HK) headquarters in Shanghai, as well as spend time touring the lab. Historically and still now we hold a long-term positive view of the stock as a vehicle to invest in the global biotech/biopharma sector – especially in China - without taking single drug risk.  After our team spent hundreds of hours researching the biologics CDMO (contract development and manufacturing organization) market, the company’s pipelines (187 projects) and customer distribution, we believe that the stock valuation is excessive to own at this price.  The business model of WuXi Biologics’ CDMO is return-on-asset (ROA) in nature, not return-on-IP as in the case of biotech/biopharma, as the management claims. Manufacturing business by definition is cyclical, as demand and supply mismatch often times.  We fear that as massive capacity comes to the market – as detailed later in the note - all players will be forced to compromise on price.  We have changed our stock recommendation from POSITIVE to NEUTRAL, with a price target of ~45 HKD. 

WuXi Biologics – The Foxconn or Qualcomm of Global CDMO?

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>From a demand perspective, Asia’s population is growing as is longevity. On the supply side, Asia’s number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and medical equipment diverge across the region, and still trail the per capita averages of the 34 OECD member countries. </li><li>For a shorter-term perspective, over the past five weeks, four Healthcare stocks (Cordlife Group, iX Biopharma, UG Healthcare Corporation &amp; Health Management International) have released Annual Reports whilst a secondary listing (Techcomp Holdings) has released an Interim Report.</li><li>Within these reports, there are examples of how the Healthcare Sector is adapting to Asia Pacific demographics, maintaining an ongoing focus on Research &amp; Development, monitoring pharmaceutical &amp; food regulation trends, collaborating with communities to build business channels, expansion of production lines and pursuing value chain management in manufacturing and distribution. </li></ul>

From a demand perspective, Asia’s population is growing as is longevity. On the supply side, Asia’s number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and medical equipment diverge across the region, and still trail the per capita averages of the 34 OECD member countries. For a shorter-term perspective, over the past five weeks, four Healthcare stocks (Cordlife Group, iX Biopharma, UG Healthcare Corporation &amp; Health Management International) have released Annual Reports whilst a secondary listing (Techcomp Holdings) has released an Interim Report.Within these reports, there are examples of how the Healthcare Sector is adapting to Asia Pacific demographics, maintaining an ongoing focus on Research &amp; Development, monitoring pharmaceutical &amp; food regulation trends, collaborating with communities to build business channels, expansion of production lines and pursuing value chain management in manufacturing and distribution. 

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

By allowing couples to have up to two children China hopes to reverse its likely population decline. But falling fertility and the pressures of urban living mean that existing policies are unlikely to deliver a baby boom.

By allowing couples to have up to two children China hopes to reverse its likely population decline. But falling fertility and the pressures of urban living mean that existing policies are unlikely to deliver a baby boom.

Falling Fertility Adds to China's Population Woes

Faced with dramatically falling birth rates, Iran has introduced a wide range of pro-natalist policies. In contrast, China has been half-hearted in the policies it has introduced and continues to boast about its family planning services.

Faced with dramatically falling birth rates, Iran has introduced a wide range of pro-natalist policies. In contrast, China has been half-hearted in the policies it has introduced and continues to boast about its family planning services.

Iran Shows China the Way on Population Expansion

China

Harbin Gloria Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals.  The Company's products are small water needle, freeze-dried powder injection, capsules, tablets, suppositories, powder for injection points installation and oncology medicines etc.

Harbin Gloria Pharmaceuticals Co, Ltd. (002437 CH)

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Harbin Gloria Pharmaceuticals Co, Ltd. (002437 CH)

Pre-IPO Transcenta Holding - Insights on Pipeline and the Concerns

The article mainly analyzed Transcenta Holding in terms of its important product candidates MSB2311, TST001, TST005 and MSB0254,including the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

WuXi Biologics – The Foxconn or Qualcomm of Global CDMO?

During the first week of 2019, we visited Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc (2269 HK) headquarters in Shanghai, as well as spend time touring the lab....

JL Warren Capital

Key Drivers of Asia's Healthcare Sector

From a demand perspective, Asia’s population is growing as is longevity. On the supply side, Asia’s number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Falling Fertility Adds to China's Population Woes

By allowing couples to have up to two children China hopes to reverse its likely population decline. But falling fertility and the pressures of...

Bixmoor

Iran Shows China the Way on Population Expansion

Faced with dramatically falling birth rates, Iran has introduced a wide range of pro-natalist policies. In contrast, China has been half-hearted in...

Bixmoor

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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