Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our index shows April pricing momentum remained positive in deep-sea trades</li>
<li>Evergreen Marine posted strong revenue and earnings growth in Q124</li>
<li>Container carriers have performed well YTD in 2024; we expect convergence</li>
</ul>


Our index shows April pricing momentum remained positive in deep-sea trades
Evergreen Marine posted strong revenue and earnings growth in Q124
Container carriers have performed well YTD in 2024; we expect convergence


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Share Prices Converging | (May 2024)

<ul>
<li>Our analysis suggests container rate momentum remained +ive in March</li>
<li>Despite higher fuel expense, core container margins likely rose Y/Y in Q124</li>
<li>Our L/S pair trade? It's worked, a little, but Evergreen shares have stayed firm</li>
</ul>


Our analysis suggests container rate momentum remained +ive in March
Despite higher fuel expense, core container margins likely rose Y/Y in Q124
Our L/S pair trade? It's worked, a little, but Evergreen shares have stayed firm


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Volumes Strong | Q1 Margins Likely Up Y/Y (April 2024)

<ul>
<li>Strong uptick in price momentum in February reflects booming spot market</li>
<li>February container throughput growth in key regions also firm, up 7.4% Y/Y</li>
<li>We suggest Short Evergreen vs Long Maersk (or ZIM) pair trade idea</li>
</ul>


Strong uptick in price momentum in February reflects booming spot market
February container throughput growth in key regions also firm, up 7.4% Y/Y
We suggest Short Evergreen vs Long Maersk (or ZIM) pair trade idea


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | February Spot Rates Strong | Volume Firm, Too | (March 2024)

<ul>
<li>Since October, Evergreen shares have performed well on rising spot rates</li>
<li>Over the same period, Maersk and ZIM shares fell on longer-term concerns</li>
<li>Pair trade idea: SHORT Evergreen vs LONG Maersk / ZIM position</li>
</ul>


Since October, Evergreen shares have performed well on rising spot rates
Over the same period, Maersk and ZIM shares fell on longer-term concerns
Pair trade idea: SHORT Evergreen vs LONG Maersk / ZIM position


Pair Trade Idea: Short Evergreen Against Long Maersk / ZIM

<ul>
<li>January pricing momentum improved, helped by more operating days &amp; re-routes</li>
<li>Throughput growth remained strong last month, including +18% into WC ports</li>
<li>Near term reality far rosier than downbeat view from industry giant Maersk</li>
</ul>


January pricing momentum improved, helped by more operating days &amp; re-routes
Throughput growth remained strong last month, including +18% into WC ports
Near term reality far rosier than downbeat view from industry giant Maersk


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | LNY Timing, Red Sea Re-Routes Boosted Revenue | (February 2024)

Germany

Hapag-Lloyd AG operates as a container shipping line company. The Company offers transportation of goods by sea, road, rail, and inland waterway vessels. Hapag-Lloyd serves customers worldwide.

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Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Volumes Strong | Q1 Margins Likely Up Y/Y (April 2024)

Container rate momentum remained +ive in March, & we believe carriers' margins probably improved Y/Y in Q124 (despite higher fuel expenses). Our L...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | February Spot Rates Strong | Volume Firm, Too | (March 2024)

February price momentum improved dramatically, to levels not seen since Q322. Spot rates have lifted some carriers' shares YTD, but we expect share...

Tracking Traffic

Pair Trade Idea: Short Evergreen Against Long Maersk / ZIM

The divergent performances of container carriers Evergreen, Maersk, and ZIM since Q4 last year suggest a LONG Maersk/ZIM against SHORT Evergreen...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | LNY Timing, Red Sea Re-Routes Boosted Revenue | (February 2024)

Container shipping price momentum in January jumped on Red Sea re-routes and a Y/Y increase in operating days. We highlight a growing gap between...

Tracking Traffic

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Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Share Prices Converging | (May 2024)

Average deep-sea rates and traffic remained firm in April. The L/S pair trades we suggested back in mid-March? One of them has worked out quite well.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Volumes Strong | Q1 Margins Likely Up Y/Y (April 2024)

Container rate momentum remained +ive in March, & we believe carriers' margins probably improved Y/Y in Q124 (despite higher fuel expenses). Our L...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | February Spot Rates Strong | Volume Firm, Too | (March 2024)

February price momentum improved dramatically, to levels not seen since Q322. Spot rates have lifted some carriers' shares YTD, but we expect share...

Tracking Traffic

Pair Trade Idea: Short Evergreen Against Long Maersk / ZIM

The divergent performances of container carriers Evergreen, Maersk, and ZIM since Q4 last year suggest a LONG Maersk/ZIM against SHORT Evergreen...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | LNY Timing, Red Sea Re-Routes Boosted Revenue | (February 2024)

Container shipping price momentum in January jumped on Red Sea re-routes and a Y/Y increase in operating days. We highlight a growing gap between...

Tracking Traffic