Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>First, we can take on some risk and build up a short position using SSFs from now, aiming for an aggressively low price (likely Day 1) during the rights trading. </li>
<li>If this approach seems somewhat risky, the second is to wait until the rights trading and, although accepting some sacrifice in the spread, build positions relatively risk-free. </li>
<li>We can also actively build up a long position in the significantly backwardated SSFs from now and, instead, set up an aggressive short on the underlying shares.</li>
</ul>


First, we can take on some risk and build up a short position using SSFs from now, aiming for an aggressively low price (likely Day 1) during the rights trading. 
If this approach seems somewhat risky, the second is to wait until the rights trading and, although accepting some sacrifice in the spread, build positions relatively risk-free. 
We can also actively build up a long position in the significantly backwardated SSFs from now and, instead, set up an aggressive short on the underlying shares.


Trading Angles Using Severely Backwardated Hanwha Ocean's SSFs Ahead of the Rights Trading

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The heightened political conflict between Russia and Ukraine which could lead to a more deadly military conflict has been impacting many defense related stocks in Korea this year.</li>
<li>A big concern is that this conflict could result in greater political outbursts around the world including between Taiwan &amp; China and South Korea &amp; North Korea.</li>
<li>The continued political conflict between Russia and Ukraine which could lead to further military conflict could lead to further outperformance of Korean defense stocks in the coming weeks. </li>
</ul>


The heightened political conflict between Russia and Ukraine which could lead to a more deadly military conflict has been impacting many defense related stocks in Korea this year.
A big concern is that this conflict could result in greater political outbursts around the world including between Taiwan &amp; China and South Korea &amp; North Korea.
The continued political conflict between Russia and Ukraine which could lead to further military conflict could lead to further outperformance of Korean defense stocks in the coming weeks. 


Korean Defense Plays Outperforming the Market in Light of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 23 August, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) confirmed that it will conduct a massive rights offering of 2 trillion won.</li>
<li>The expected rights offering price is 22,350 won, which is 36% discount to current price. </li>
<li>We believe this rights offering is likely to dilute the existing shareholders and negatively impact Hanwha Ocean's share price.</li>
</ul>


After the market close on 23 August, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) confirmed that it will conduct a massive rights offering of 2 trillion won.
The expected rights offering price is 22,350 won, which is 36% discount to current price. 
We believe this rights offering is likely to dilute the existing shareholders and negatively impact Hanwha Ocean's share price.


Hanwha Ocean: Big Shares Dilution from Rights Offering of 2 Trillion Won

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.</li>
<li>We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 7 new adds to MidCap, and 17 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.
We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 7 new adds to MidCap, and 17 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.


KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Migrations to Attract Active Flows

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.</li>
<li>We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 6 new adds to MidCap, and 16 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.
We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 6 new adds to MidCap, and 16 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.


KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Overlap With Other Index Flows

South Korea

Hanwha Systems Co., Ltd. designs, develops, and distributes high-tech systems for the defense industry. The Company manufactures tactical communication systems, radar systems, naval combat systems, electro-optics, and fire control systems. Hanwha Systems markets its products throughout South Korea.

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Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS)

Trading Angles Using Severely Backwardated Hanwha Ocean's SSFs Ahead of the Rights Trading

Considering the significantly high spread based on the 2nd-round pricing while the trading deadline for Hanwha Ocean subscription rights is just a...

Sanghyun Park

Korean Defense Plays Outperforming the Market in Light of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Amid the outbreak of a new war in Israel, there is likely to be increased capital inflow into global military/aerospace stocks. This insight...

Douglas Kim

Hanwha Ocean: Big Shares Dilution from Rights Offering of 2 Trillion Won

Hanwha Ocean confirmed that it will conduct a rights offering of 2 trillion won. We believe this rights offering is likely to dilute the existing...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Migrations to Attract Active Flows

We currently forecast 53 migrations for the KOSPI Size Indices. There are stocks that are potential KOSPI200 adds in December and others that will...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Overlap With Other Index Flows

We currently forecast 52 changes for the KOSPI Size Indices. While there are few passive assets tracking these indices, they are used by active...

Brian Freitas

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