Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FWIW, as the unfortunate wildfires in Australia rage on with weather conditions set to worsen, Insurance Australia Group (IAG.AU) provided an update on its expected natural peril cost.</li>
<li>We have little confidence in IAG’s risk assessment given both that there is no light at the end of the tunnel for this catastrophe and that by all measures California has yet to finalize the cost on their own deadly and yet less horrific fires. </li>
<li> IAG estimates that natural perils costs will be approximately AUD 400 mn post quota share, compared to a perils allowance of AUD 320 mn for 1H20 (FY 2020 allowance of AUD 641 mn).</li>
</ul>


FWIW, as the unfortunate wildfires in Australia rage on with weather conditions set to worsen, Insurance Australia Group (IAG.AU) provided an update on its expected natural peril cost.
We have little confidence in IAG’s risk assessment given both that there is no light at the end of the tunnel for this catastrophe and that by all measures California has yet to finalize the cost on their own deadly and yet less horrific fires. 
 IAG estimates that natural perils costs will be approximately AUD 400 mn post quota share, compared to a perils allowance of AUD 320 mn for 1H20 (FY 2020 allowance of AUD 641 mn).


Insurance Australia Group – The CAT Is Out of the Bag

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&amp;P 500 and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week’s Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Gold, and Large-Cap and Small-Cap Property &amp; Casualty Insurance.

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&amp;P 500 and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week’s Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Gold, and Large-Cap and Small-Cap Property &amp; Casualty Insurance.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Technical Indications Mixed; Outlook Remains Cautious

Technicals continue to endorse a bullish outlook. And with the S&amp;P 500 breaking out to new highs yesterday, and insurance stocks recovering from last week, we are benefitting from renewed clarity following the muddled, past two months.In today’s report we highlight actionable ideas in the following Groups:<ul><li>Semis... see page 14-20</li><li>Insurers... see page 8-13</li></ul>

Technicals continue to endorse a bullish outlook. And with the S&amp;P 500 breaking out to new highs yesterday, and insurance stocks recovering from last week, we are benefitting from renewed clarity following the muddled, past two months.In today’s report we highlight actionable ideas in the following Groups:Semis... see page 14-20Insurers... see page 8-13

U.S. Equity Uptrend Resumes; Outlook Remains Bullish

United States

Hanover Insurance Group Inc operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers property and casualty insurance products including personal lines, commercial lines and other property casualty through independent agents.

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Hanover Insurance Group (THG US)

Insurance Australia Group – The CAT Is Out of the Bag

FWIW, as the unfortunate wildfires in Australia rage on with weather conditions set to worsen, Insurance Australia Group (IAG.AU) provided an...

Thomas J. Monaco

U.S. Equity Strategy: Technical Indications Mixed; Outlook Remains Cautious

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&P 500 and equal-weighted S&P 500) have failed to hold, something we...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Uptrend Resumes; Outlook Remains Bullish

Technicals continue to endorse a bullish outlook. And with the S&P 500 breaking out to new highs yesterday, and insurance stocks recovering...

Vermilion Research

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