Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 16th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$850.0 million, led by financials, industrials, and offset by information technology, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Ping An Insurance, Shaanxi Coal, CMB and CATL.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 16th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$850.0 million, led by financials, industrials, and offset by information technology, energy.
We highlight flows for Ping An Insurance, Shaanxi Coal, CMB and CATL.


Northbound Flows (Sep 16th): Ping An Insurance, Shaanxi Coal, CMB and CATL

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

China Tourism Group Duty Free / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) raised around US$2.4bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong, after pricing its IPO at HKD158/share.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) raised around US$2.4bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong, after pricing its IPO at HKD158/share.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.
In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and the trading dynamics.


China Tourism Group A/H Trading - Decent Support from Long-Only but Minimal Retail Participation

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) is gearing up to launch Hong Kong’s largest listing so far this year, with a reported deal size of around US$2-3bn.</li>
<li>Prior to the deal launch, we’ve had a quick look at the A/H premium, subscription and past performance of some of the earlier A/H listings.</li>
<li>Overall, most of the recent A/H listings haven’t done much over the first month.</li>
</ul>


China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) is gearing up to launch Hong Kong’s largest listing so far this year, with a reported deal size of around US$2-3bn.
Prior to the deal launch, we’ve had a quick look at the A/H premium, subscription and past performance of some of the earlier A/H listings.
Overall, most of the recent A/H listings haven’t done much over the first month.


Past A/H Listings Performance - Most of the Deals Haven’t Done Much

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China biotech companies are “being squeezed” between the negative domestic policies and the dilemma of internationalization. The investment logic of biotech has broken and the valuation forecasts are ineffective.</li>
<li>For CXO, the uncertainties outweigh the certainties.Investors need to be prepared for the possibility of CXO not to return to its peak, because its best time may have been over.</li>
<li>We’re in a very complicated environment. A lot of things come together. Survive first. Seize rebounds after plunge rather than go bottom fishing. You don't know when the bottom is. </li>
</ul>


China biotech companies are “being squeezed” between the negative domestic policies and the dilemma of internationalization. The investment logic of biotech has broken and the valuation forecasts are ineffective.
For CXO, the uncertainties outweigh the certainties.Investors need to be prepared for the possibility of CXO not to return to its peak, because its best time may have been over.
We’re in a very complicated environment. A lot of things come together. Survive first. Seize rebounds after plunge rather than go bottom fishing. You don't know when the bottom is. 


Re-Examine the Outlook and Investment Strategy for China Biotech and CXO

Equity Bottom-Up

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite solid growth in 2021, if seen from prior years, the revenue YoY growth rate and net profit YoY growth rate showed a state of divergence, which is “interesting”.</li>
<li>Since half of Tigermed’s net profits were from investment income,it’s not logical to apply the valuation methods of traditional CXO to Tigermed. Its CRO and investment should be valued separately.</li>
<li>The poor IPO sentiment, risk of recession and the domestic healthcare rational return would make investors reconsider if Tigermed’s “CRO + PE/VC business model” would be a safe play.</li>
</ul>


Despite solid growth in 2021, if seen from prior years, the revenue YoY growth rate and net profit YoY growth rate showed a state of divergence, which is “interesting”.
Since half of Tigermed’s net profits were from investment income,it’s not logical to apply the valuation methods of traditional CXO to Tigermed. Its CRO and investment should be valued separately.
The poor IPO sentiment, risk of recession and the domestic healthcare rational return would make investors reconsider if Tigermed’s “CRO + PE/VC business model” would be a safe play.


Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347.HK/300347.CH) - The Business Model May Not Be a Safe Play

China

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Company Limited provides professional clinical research services for domestic and foreign pharmaceutical and health-related research and development. The Company's main services include clinical trial technology services, data management, and statistical analysis.

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (A) (300347 CH)

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Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (A) (300347 CH)

Northbound Flows (Sep 16th): Ping An Insurance, Shaanxi Coal, CMB and CATL

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Ping An Insurance, Shaanxi Coal, CMB, CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Tourism Group A/H Trading - Decent Support from Long-Only but Minimal Retail Participation

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) raised around US$2.4bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong, after pricing its IPO at HKD158...

Sumeet Singh

Past A/H Listings Performance - Most of the Deals Haven’t Done Much

China Tourism is gearing up to launch Hong Kong’s largest listing so far this year, with a reported deal size of around US$2-3bn. Ahead of its...

Sumeet Singh

Re-Examine the Outlook and Investment Strategy for China Biotech and CXO

The investment logic of China biotech has broken due to dilemma of domestic policy and internationalization risk.CXO couldn't sustain high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347.HK/300347.CH) - The Business Model May Not Be a Safe Play

Tigermed’s high growth and high valuation are inseparable from continuous M&As and investment. However, uncertain macro environment and risk of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)