Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

In our previous report, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-reality-check-for-money-forward-3994-jp-key-takeaways-from-our-recent-visit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28861" rel="noopener">A Reality Check for Money Forward (3994 JP): Key Takeaways from Our Recent Visit</a>, we suggested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> (MF)’s FY11/19E revenue guidance (+55%-65% YoY growth) and medium-term profit targets (positive EBITDA by FY11/21E) are slightly aggressive and needs to be toned down. MF’s share price, which was trading at around ¥4,400 at that time (March 2019), has fallen to around ¥3,500, reinforcing our bearish view.MF reported its 1H FY11/19E financial results last week. MF’s revenue was up 53% YoY in 1H FY11/19, slightly below the bottom end of the guidance, and EBITDA worsened to ¥1,466m in 1H FY11/19 compared to ¥160m in 1H FY11/19.This was the company’s first financial results briefing after deploying a new price plan for its cloud-based enterprise SaaS business, MF Cloud, in May 2019. In this note, we take a closer look at the new price plan and what it means for MF going forward.

In our previous report, A Reality Check for Money Forward (3994 JP): Key Takeaways from Our Recent Visit, we suggested that Money Forward (3994 JP) (MF)’s FY11/19E revenue guidance (+55%-65% YoY growth) and medium-term profit targets (positive EBITDA by FY11/21E) are slightly aggressive and needs to be toned down. MF’s share price, which was trading at around ¥4,400 at that time (March 2019), has fallen to around ¥3,500, reinforcing our bearish view.MF reported its 1H FY11/19E financial results last week. MF’s revenue was up 53% YoY in 1H FY11/19, slightly below the bottom end of the guidance, and EBITDA worsened to ¥1,466m in 1H FY11/19 compared to ¥160m in 1H FY11/19.This was the company’s first financial results briefing after deploying a new price plan for its cloud-based enterprise SaaS business, MF Cloud, in May 2019. In this note, we take a closer look at the new price plan and what it means for MF going forward.

Money Forward’s New Pricing Plan Could Be Its First Step in the Path to Profitability

China

Hangzhou Sunyard System Engineering Co., Ltd. develops application software for financial institutions and sells related hardware products.  The Company's products include electronic file image systems, customer service center systems, electronic banking systems, and information security products.

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Hangzhou Sunyard System A (600571 CH)

Money Forward’s New Pricing Plan Could Be Its First Step in the Path to Profitability

In our previous report, A Reality Check for Money Forward (3994 JP): Key Takeaways from Our Recent Visit, we suggested that Money Forward (3994 JP)...

Supun Walpola

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