Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.</li><li>While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.</li><li>Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.</li></ul>

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> announced in-specie dividends of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> (US$15bn+) in 2021 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> (US$20bn) in 2022.</li>
<li>With the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> Board meeting on 15 November to approve Q3 results and considering the payment of a dividend, the pattern could repeat this year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> owns stakes of US$1bn+ in 10 listed companies. We take a look at the stocks that could be next in line to be paid as in-specie dividends.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) announced in-specie dividends of JD.com (9618 HK) (US$15bn+) in 2021 and Meituan (3690 HK) (US$20bn) in 2022.
With the Tencent (700 HK) Board meeting on 15 November to approve Q3 results and considering the payment of a dividend, the pattern could repeat this year.

Tencent (700 HK) owns stakes of US$1bn+ in 10 listed companies. We take a look at the stocks that could be next in line to be paid as in-specie dividends.


Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates

<ul><li>Key Points: The recent UST rally may offer relief to risk assets, and the market appears well-positioned for a bear market rally.</li><li>Our perspective remains unchanged: we believe the underlying economy is weaker than what current market sentiment reflects.</li><li>Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains unresolved.</li></ul>

Key Points: The recent UST rally may offer relief to risk assets, and the market appears well-positioned for a bear market rally.Our perspective remains unchanged: we believe the underlying economy is weaker than what current market sentiment reflects.Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains unresolved.

EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight

<ul><li>Conclusions upfront: The Chinese stimulus package is too small and the composition underlines the domestic issues in China.</li><li>If Chinese consumers remain conservative, the efforts could be undermined.</li><li>We won’t be surprised to see more policy easing in 2024.</li></ul>

Conclusions upfront: The Chinese stimulus package is too small and the composition underlines the domestic issues in China.If Chinese consumers remain conservative, the efforts could be undermined.We won’t be surprised to see more policy easing in 2024.

EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> stops trading this week and should be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs in the ASX indices.</li>
<li>Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)/ Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1. While this divergence is gradually...

Steno Research

Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates

Tencent could make it a hat-trick of special in-specie dividend distributions. After JD.com and Meituan, Kuaishou could be next. Or it could be...

Brian Freitas

EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight

Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains...

Steno Research

EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun

The Chinese stimulus package is too small and the composition underlines the domestic issues in China. If Chinese consumers remain conservative,...

Steno Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas