Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> are potential deletions while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> are potential adds.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$950m. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 3 September.</li>
<li>There will be 1-2x ADV to buy on the adds and over 2x ADV to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics</a>. The impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime</a> is lower given the recent surge in volume.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) are potential deletions while PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK) and New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) are potential adds.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$950m. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 3 September.
There will be 1-2x ADV to buy on the adds and over 2x ADV to sell in JD Logistics. The impact on SenseTime is lower given the recent surge in volume.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

<ul>
<li>The June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$32bn (US$4.1bn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics</a> are the largest buys while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings</a> are the largest sells.</li>
</ul>


The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.
The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$32bn (US$4.1bn).

Li Auto, Alibaba, NetEase, Zijin Mining, SenseTime and BYD Electronics are the largest buys while Tencent, Meituan, JD.com, Kuaishou Technology, Xiaomi and HSBC Holdings are the largest sells.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)

<ul>
<li>As expected, there are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June. However, there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$19.2bn (US$2.46bn). There is over 3x ADV to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Short interest is quite elevated on a lot of stocks both in terms of days of ADV and in terms of free float.</li>
</ul>


As expected, there are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$19.2bn (US$2.46bn). There is over 3x ADV to buy in Li Auto (2015 HK). 
Short interest is quite elevated on a lot of stocks both in terms of days of ADV and in terms of free float.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Result in 8% Turnover & US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> after market close on 7 June while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.9% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$8.46bn (US$1.08bn) with over 1x ADV to trade in the add and delete.</li>
<li>We remain at 82 index constituents and the road to 100 index members looks to be a long and winding one.</li>
</ul>



BYD Electronics (285 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) after market close on 7 June while Country Garden Services (6098 HK) will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.9% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$8.46bn (US$1.08bn) with over 1x ADV to trade in the add and delete.
We remain at 82 index constituents and the road to 100 index members looks to be a long and winding one.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: BYD Electronics Added; Country Garden Services Deleted

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> after the close on 7 June.</li>
<li>An increase in the FAF for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> results in the stock avoiding deletion at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$3.8bn with over 1x ADV to trade on the add and delete.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) will replace Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) after the close on 7 June.
An increase in the FAF for SenseTime Group (20 HK) results in the stock avoiding deletion at the June rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$3.8bn with over 1x ADV to trade on the add and delete.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Zijin Mining In; Xinyi Solar Out; SenseTime Survives (For Now)

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

We forecast two changes in September with a 1-way turnover of 1.8% resulting in a 1-way trade of HK$950m. There will be 1-2 days of ADV to trade on...

Brian Freitas

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the four...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Result in 8% Turnover & US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

Float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 8% and in a round-trip trade of HK$19.2bn (US$2.46bn). Li Auto is the largest passive...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: BYD Electronics Added; Country Garden Services Deleted

BYD Electronics is an add and CG Services is a delete. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.9% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$8.46bn...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Zijin Mining In; Xinyi Solar Out; SenseTime Survives (For Now)

Zijin Mining will replace Xinyi Glass in the HSCEI at the close on 7 June. Zijin Mining has jumped over the last few months but still trades...

Brian Freitas