Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Fundamentals at Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) [SCBHK] have improved over the past several years. However, SCBHK has aggressively pulled on various non-core, low quality sources of revenue in order to buoy Standard Chartered’s (2888.HK/STAN.LN) profits  - making them look better than they otherwise would have.* There is some strain on SCBHK’s capital position. Our burn-down analysis suggests that SCBHK is already close to the 2019 Basel III floor level for Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital. As such, on top of concerns over IFRS 9, Basel III/IV, and regulatory penalties - Standard Chartered may need to worry about capital at risk in its Hong Kong franchise prior to re-instituting a dividend.

* Fundamentals at Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) [SCBHK] have improved over the past several years. However, SCBHK has aggressively pulled on various non-core, low quality sources of revenue in order to buoy Standard Chartered’s (2888.HK/STAN.LN) profits  - making them look better than they otherwise would have.* There is some strain on SCBHK’s capital position. Our burn-down analysis suggests that SCBHK is already close to the 2019 Basel III floor level for Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital. As such, on top of concerns over IFRS 9, Basel III/IV, and regulatory penalties - Standard Chartered may need to worry about capital at risk in its Hong Kong franchise prior to re-instituting a dividend.  

Standard Chartered (Hong Kong) – A Messy Flagship

* Problems at Group Lease (GL.TB) became more apparent with Ernst &amp; Young’s scathing 2016 audit report which questioned the integrity of inter-company loans, more liberal accounting policies, and the 30% purchase of a Sri Lankan company from a related party at a 120% market premium.* Among other items, an independent research report further alleged that Group Lease purposely misled investors, Ernst &amp; Young, and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Our own research suggests that each…

* Problems at Group Lease (GL.TB) became more apparent with Ernst &amp; Young’s scathing 2016 audit report which questioned the integrity of inter-company loans, more liberal accounting policies, and the 30% purchase of a Sri Lankan company from a related party at a 120% market premium.* Among other items, an independent research report further alleged that Group Lease purposely misled investors, Ernst &amp; Young, and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Our own research suggests that each…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Hong Kong’s banks have exposure to China. Some more than others. There are signs of worsening credit conditions in China from some of Hong Kong banks’ financials. We believe this may be as good as any indicator for China credit risk, even where non-performing loan (NPL) ratios appear static in the Mainland. At the same time, some banks in Hong Kong are seeing high rates of growth in domestic impaired loans, provision costs or overdue loans. With less support from China, it is no wonder that…

Hong Kong’s banks have exposure to China. Some more than others. There are signs of worsening credit conditions in China from some of Hong Kong banks’ financials. We believe this may be as good as any indicator for China credit risk, even where non-performing loan (NPL) ratios appear static in the Mainland. At the same time, some banks in Hong Kong are seeing high rates of growth in domestic impaired loans, provision costs or overdue loans. With less support from China, it is no wonder that…

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index / Technical Analysis

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is breaking out from a two-year base. Relative strength (vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US) depicts a similar pattern; after lagging since mid-2015, its RS trend has slowly rounded higher, resulting in the recent breakout. Combined, this warrants an overweight.Today’s report is a country by country review of leadership and actionable themes within the region, including stock recommendations.

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is breaking out from a two-year base. Relative strength (vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US) depicts a similar pattern; after lagging since mid-2015, its RS trend has slowly rounded higher, resulting in the recent breakout. Combined, this warrants an overweight.Today’s report is a country by country review of leadership and actionable themes within the region, including stock recommendations.

Head of Research at Fusion Wealth Management Ltd

Michael McGaughy

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

Hong Kong

Hang Seng Bank Limited and its subsidiaries provide banking and related financial services.

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Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)

Standard Chartered (Hong Kong) – A Messy Flagship

* Fundamentals at Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) [SCBHK] have improved over the past several years. However, SCBHK has aggressively pulled on...

Thomas J. Monaco

Group Lease - Lessons from Icharus

* Problems at Group Lease (GL.TB) became more apparent with Ernst & Young’s scathing 2016 audit report which questioned the integrity of...

Thomas J. Monaco

HK Banks - Domestic Decay, And China Too

Hong Kong’s banks have exposure to China. Some more than others. There are signs of worsening credit conditions in China from some of Hong Kong...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia: Developing Leadership

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is...

Vermilion Research

Bitcoin - The View From Lagos

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value. I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality...

Michael McGaughy

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