Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pure iron ore plays outperforming diversified producers, for now...</li>
<li>America wakes up to REE embargo threat, LYC critical for future supply plans</li>
<li>Nickel supply (primary and secondary) in structural deficit, fifth year in a row</li>
<li>LME Nickel stocks declining rapidly</li>
<li>Graphite Sector a SELL (both explorers and producers)</li>
<li>Reiterate BUY on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>
</li>
<li>Current Offer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azumah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1" rel="noopener">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a> likely to fail</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton (BHP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/syrah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1978:1" rel="noopener">Syrah Resources (SYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walkabout-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16753:1" rel="noopener">Walkabout Resources (WKT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pensana-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2106:1" rel="noopener">Pensana Metals (PM8 AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peel-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1" rel="noopener">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azumah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1" rel="noopener">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-george-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18642:1" rel="noopener">St George Mining (SGQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-consolidated-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10021:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Consolidated (AOP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chesser-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1365:1" rel="noopener">Chesser Resources (CHZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/musgrave-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2564:1" rel="noopener">Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stavely-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20213:1" rel="noopener">Stavely Minerals (SVY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/classic-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18945:1" rel="noopener">Classic Minerals (CLZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frontier-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3173:1" rel="noopener">Frontier Resources (FNT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/venus-metals-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10142:1" rel="noopener">Venus Metals Corp (VMC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poseidon-nickel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12760:1" rel="noopener">Poseidon Nickel (POS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rox-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18355:1" rel="noopener">Rox Resources (RXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bellevue-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2297:1" rel="noopener">Bellevue Gold (BGL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/calidus-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16023:1" rel="noopener">Calidus Resources (CAI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bowen-coking-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17492:1" rel="noopener">Bowen Coking Coal (BCB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hot-chili-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11138:1" rel="noopener">Hot Chili Ltd (HCH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ora-banda-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2970:1" rel="noopener">Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28181:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone Minerals Ltd (BSX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spectrum-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2237:1" rel="noopener">Spectrum Metals (SPX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alt-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28297:1" rel="noopener">ALT Resources Ltd (ARS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources Nl (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-western-exploration-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19901:1" rel="noopener">Great Western Exploration (GTE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exore-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16357:1" rel="noopener">Exore Resources (ERX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cora-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27988:1" rel="noopener">Cora Gold Ltd (CORA LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zyl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2971:1" rel="noopener">Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bardoc-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4833:1" rel="noopener">Bardoc Gold (BDC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-consolidated-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10021:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Consolidated (AOP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carnaby-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4197:1" rel="noopener">Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hammer-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15503:1" rel="noopener">Hammer Metals (HMX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atrum-coal-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9553:1" rel="noopener">Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azumah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
</ul>


Pure iron ore plays outperforming diversified producers, for now...
America wakes up to REE embargo threat, LYC critical for future supply plans
Nickel supply (primary and secondary) in structural deficit, fifth year in a row
LME Nickel stocks declining rapidly
Graphite Sector a SELL (both explorers and producers)
Reiterate BUY on Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)

Current Offer on Azumah Resources (AZM AU) likely to fail

Bhp Billiton (BHP AU), Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), Syrah Resources (SYR AU), Walkabout Resources (WKT AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Pensana Metals (PM8 AU), Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), St George Mining (SGQ AU), Apollo Consolidated (AOP AU), Chesser Resources (CHZ AU), Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU), Stavely Minerals (SVY AU), Classic Minerals (CLZ AU), Frontier Resources (FNT AU), Venus Metals Corp (VMC AU), Poseidon Nickel (POS AU), Alkane Resources (ALK AU), Rox Resources (RXL AU), Bellevue Gold (BGL AU), Calidus Resources (CAI AU), Bowen Coking Coal (BCB AU), Hot Chili Ltd (HCH AU), Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU), Blackstone Minerals Ltd (BSX AU), Spectrum Metals (SPX AU), ALT Resources Ltd (ARS AU), Mincor Resources Nl (MCR AU), Great Western Exploration (GTE AU), Exore Resources (ERX AU), Cora Gold Ltd (CORA LN), Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU), Bardoc Gold (BDC AU), Apollo Consolidated (AOP AU), Carnaby Resources (CNB AU), Hammer Metals (HMX AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU) 



New J. Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 04/10/19)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/echo-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14476:1" rel="noopener">Echo Resources (EAR AU)</a> announced today it has entered a bid implementation agreement in which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> has offered to acquire all shares it does not own in Echo at $0.33/share in cash, a 39.4% premium to last close.
The Offer is conditional on NST holding at least 90% of shares out. NST currently owns 21.7% of shares. The directors of Echo, with 1.7%, have confirmed, in the absence of a superior offer, they will accept the Offer.
Echo is focused on the Yandal gold project comprising 1,600 square kilometers in Western Australia’s Yandal greenstone belt, which is approximately 400km north of Kalgoorlie. A June resource <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190625/pdf/4462wbg118ng67.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">update</a> provided mineral resources of 28.6mn tonnes @ two grams for 1.8mn ounces of gold. 
An April <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190430/pdf/444p7h7cbf89r6.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">quarterly activities report</a> highlighted pre-tax project free cashflow of A$225mn, at an annual gold production rate of 95k ounces, on a pre-production capital of $42mn. Gold was trading around US$1,300/ounce at the time of that report and is now $1,528 - or up around 17% - indicating projected cashflows should be higher. 
The acquisition will allow NST to consolidate the Yandal Gold Project for further evaluation for both exploration and development; plus provide NST with the ability to process gold at Echo's Bronzewing processing plant.
This appears a clean, recommended Offer. The Offer is expected to be open for acceptance on the 25 September, with possible payment late October, early November.
Details below the fold.
<hr>
For more details about Australian M&amp;A rules, practices, guidelines, and things to watch out for, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-australia-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30118" rel="noopener">Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019</a>. For other Quiddity M&amp;A guides, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/search?q=quiddity%20M%26A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (you may have to scroll down).

Echo Resources (EAR AU) announced today it has entered a bid implementation agreement in which Northern Star Resources (NST AU) has offered to acquire all shares it does not own in Echo at $0.33/share in cash, a 39.4% premium to last close.
The Offer is conditional on NST holding at least 90% of shares out. NST currently owns 21.7% of shares. The directors of Echo, with 1.7%, have confirmed, in the absence of a superior offer, they will accept the Offer.
Echo is focused on the Yandal gold project comprising 1,600 square kilometers in Western Australia’s Yandal greenstone belt, which is approximately 400km north of Kalgoorlie. A June resource update provided mineral resources of 28.6mn tonnes @ two grams for 1.8mn ounces of gold. 
An April quarterly activities report highlighted pre-tax project free cashflow of A$225mn, at an annual gold production rate of 95k ounces, on a pre-production capital of $42mn. Gold was trading around US$1,300/ounce at the time of that report and is now $1,528 - or up around 17% - indicating projected cashflows should be higher. 
The acquisition will allow NST to consolidate the Yandal Gold Project for further evaluation for both exploration and development; plus provide NST with the ability to process gold at Echo's Bronzewing processing plant.
This appears a clean, recommended Offer. The Offer is expected to be open for acceptance on the 25 September, with possible payment late October, early November.
Details below the fold.

For more details about Australian M&amp;A rules, practices, guidelines, and things to watch out for, please see Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019. For other Quiddity M&amp;A guides, please see here (you may have to scroll down).

Northern Star's Recommended Offer For Echo

Australia

Hammer Metals Ltd. is a West Australian based exploration and development company with gold projects in the Goldfields region of WA and exploring for copper, gold and uranium in the Paterson Province in the East Pilbara district of Western Australia.

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Hammer Metals (HMX AU)

New J. Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 04/10/19)

Pure iron ore plays outperforming diversified producers, for now... America wakes up to REE embargo threat, LYC critical for future supply...

Gaius King

Northern Star's Recommended Offer For Echo

Echo Resources (EAR AU) announced today it has entered a bid implementation agreement in which Northern Star Resources (NST AU) has offered to...

David Blennerhassett

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