'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/227/original/2020-02-11_05-05-13.png?1581376613" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117227"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>10TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - 189 results and 93 revision announcements had little impact on our aggregate Scores, although decliners still outweighed improvers by a factor of two times. Amongst larger caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-estate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:566:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP)</a> produced the best quarter-on-quarter change in Score, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sundrug-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12615:1" rel="noopener">Sundrug (9989 JP)</a> being one of the worst. Today is a public holiday (kenkoku kinen no hi), and so the next roundup will appear on Wednesday morning. <hr>• SECTOR TIMELINE •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/228/original/2020-02-11_05-08-14.png?1581377317" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117228"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - Monday's main moves were upwards for Real Estate and Media (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo DY (2433 JP)</a>) and downwards (again) for Other Commercial Products (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hamamatsu-photonics-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14074:1" rel="noopener">Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP)</a>) and Building Materials (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nichias-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14674:1" rel="noopener">Nichias (5393 JP)</a>).

Source • Japan Analytics10TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - 189 results and 93 revision announcements had little impact on our aggregate Scores, although decliners still outweighed improvers by a factor of two times. Amongst larger caps, Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP) produced the best quarter-on-quarter change in Score, with Sundrug (9989 JP) being one of the worst. Today is a public holiday (kenkoku kinen no hi), and so the next roundup will appear on Wednesday morning. • SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - Monday's main moves were upwards for Real Estate and Media (Hakuhodo DY (2433 JP)) and downwards (again) for Other Commercial Products (Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP)) and Building Materials (Nichias (5393 JP)). 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 10th February ▲7003 8802 2433 ▼6965 9989 6324

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported its FY09/19 full-year financial results last week. Consolidated revenue and OP were ¥454 (+8.1% YoY) and ¥31bn (+2.2% YoY) respectively for FY09/19.  Cyberagent's OP beat consensus by 3.7%, mainly due to a surprise reduction in losses from AbemaTV and lower advertisement spend in the Game business, but revenue fell below consensus by 0.6%. Both revenue and OP were on par with our estimates (see our previous note: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cyberagent-revises-the-op-guidance-upwards-by-5-share-price-up-14" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31374" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Revises the OP Guidance Upwards by 5%; Share Price Up 14%</a>). </li>
<li>The market reaction for the results was mostly negative as Cyberagent's share price was down 14% last week (closing at ¥3,455 on Friday) since the release of the results. We believe this negative reaction would have been sparked by rather mediocre results of Internet Advertisement and Game businesses coupled with scepticism over whether AbemaTV could deliver its promised results. However, despite these concerns, we still remain bullish on the stock.</li>
</ul>



Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP) reported its FY09/19 full-year financial results last week. Consolidated revenue and OP were ¥454 (+8.1% YoY) and ¥31bn (+2.2% YoY) respectively for FY09/19.  Cyberagent's OP beat consensus by 3.7%, mainly due to a surprise reduction in losses from AbemaTV and lower advertisement spend in the Game business, but revenue fell below consensus by 0.6%. Both revenue and OP were on par with our estimates (see our previous note: CyberAgent Revises the OP Guidance Upwards by 5%; Share Price Up 14%). 
The market reaction for the results was mostly negative as Cyberagent's share price was down 14% last week (closing at ¥3,455 on Friday) since the release of the results. We believe this negative reaction would have been sparked by rather mediocre results of Internet Advertisement and Game businesses coupled with scepticism over whether AbemaTV could deliver its promised results. However, despite these concerns, we still remain bullish on the stock.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Recruit Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

Recruit Holdings announced a USD 3.8 bn globlal follow-on offering on August 28th, selling up to 121.5 million shares. In our previous insight (link <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/recruit-holdings-placement-first-major-sell-down-since-2016" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), we briefly covered the details of the deal, rationale of the sell down, the selling shareholders, comparison to previous deals. 
In this insight, we will cover the company's recent performance, SOTP based valuation, past Japan placement with a deal size of more than USD 1 billion, index event, future sell-down, and score the deal in our ECM framework.
We have previously covered some of the past offerings:
<ul>
<li class="">USD 2.3 billion raising in September 2016 (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/recruit-holdings-time-to-hire-more-long-term-shareholders" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>)</li>
<li class="">USD 263 million raising in January 2019 (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/recruit-holdings-placement-a-tiny-long-overdue-sell-down" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>)</li>
</ul>

Recruit Holdings announced a USD 3.8 bn globlal follow-on offering on August 28th, selling up to 121.5 million shares. In our previous insight (link here), we briefly covered the details of the deal, rationale of the sell down, the selling shareholders, comparison to previous deals. 
In this insight, we will cover the company's recent performance, SOTP based valuation, past Japan placement with a deal size of more than USD 1 billion, index event, future sell-down, and score the deal in our ECM framework.
We have previously covered some of the past offerings:

USD 2.3 billion raising in September 2016 (link)
USD 263 million raising in January 2019 (link)


Recruit Holding Placement: Thoughts on Valuation, Past Placements, and Index Event

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported 3Q FY09/19 financial results last week (on Wednesday, 24th July 2019). CyberAgent reported revenue of ¥113.6bn (+8.8% YoY) and OP of ¥9.4bn (+38.3% YoY) for 3Q FY09/19. Both revenue and OP beat consensus by 1.3% and 53.9% respectively. CyberAgent revised its full-year OP guidance upwards by ¥9bn (+4.5%) from ¥20bn to ¥29bn. CyberAgent's share price reacted positively for this, closing at ¥4,565 on Monday (29th July), up by 14% from last Tuesday's (23rd July) close.

Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP) reported 3Q FY09/19 financial results last week (on Wednesday, 24th July 2019). CyberAgent reported revenue of ¥113.6bn (+8.8% YoY) and OP of ¥9.4bn (+38.3% YoY) for 3Q FY09/19. Both revenue and OP beat consensus by 1.3% and 53.9% respectively. CyberAgent revised its full-year OP guidance upwards by ¥9bn (+4.5%) from ¥20bn to ¥29bn. CyberAgent's share price reacted positively for this, closing at ¥4,565 on Monday (29th July), up by 14% from last Tuesday's (23rd July) close.

CyberAgent Revises the OP Guidance Upwards by 5%; Share Price Up 14%

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1">Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported 2Q FY09/19 financial results on Wednesday (24th April). CyberAgent reported revenue of ¥117.3bn (+7% YoY) and OP of ¥8.6bn (-25% YoY) for 2Q FY09/19. Both Revenue and OP were above consensus estimates of ¥113.6bn and ¥7.0bn respectively.
The slowdown in the Internet Advertisement business continues, as segment’s revenue was up by only 10.8% YoY in 2QFY09/19, compared to the average growth of around 20% YoY seen in the last two years. The Game business also remains sluggish, down 1% YoY, as the new hit game title, Dragalia Lost, failed to impress for the second consecutive quarter.
In the meantime, Media business revenue was up by 29% YoY, with growth seems to be coming mainly from the AbemaTV front; the number of AbemaTV premium subscribers was up 12% QoQ (an increase of around 43K in absolute terms).
We have revised our FY09/19E revenue expectation upwards for AbemaTV by around JPY4bn (which is around a 30% increase from our previous forecast of ¥12bn) to reflect robust growth in the number of subscribers and advertisement revenue. Our revenue and OP forecasts for the Internet Advertisement and Game businesses remain unchanged.
Our revised SOTP valuation for CyberAgent gives a FY1 target price of ¥4,750, which implies an upside of 10% from Wednesday’s close, with potential for further upside in the medium term.

Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP) reported 2Q FY09/19 financial results on Wednesday (24th April). CyberAgent reported revenue of ¥117.3bn (+7% YoY) and OP of ¥8.6bn (-25% YoY) for 2Q FY09/19. Both Revenue and OP were above consensus estimates of ¥113.6bn and ¥7.0bn respectively.
The slowdown in the Internet Advertisement business continues, as segment’s revenue was up by only 10.8% YoY in 2QFY09/19, compared to the average growth of around 20% YoY seen in the last two years. The Game business also remains sluggish, down 1% YoY, as the new hit game title, Dragalia Lost, failed to impress for the second consecutive quarter.
In the meantime, Media business revenue was up by 29% YoY, with growth seems to be coming mainly from the AbemaTV front; the number of AbemaTV premium subscribers was up 12% QoQ (an increase of around 43K in absolute terms).
We have revised our FY09/19E revenue expectation upwards for AbemaTV by around JPY4bn (which is around a 30% increase from our previous forecast of ¥12bn) to reflect robust growth in the number of subscribers and advertisement revenue. Our revenue and OP forecasts for the Internet Advertisement and Game businesses remain unchanged.
Our revised SOTP valuation for CyberAgent gives a FY1 target price of ¥4,750, which implies an upside of 10% from Wednesday’s close, with potential for further upside in the medium term.

CyberAgent (4751 JP) 2Q Earnings Update: AbemaTV Continues to Impress

Japan

HAKUHODO DY HOLDINGS INCORPORATED is a holding company established through the merger of Hakuhodo Inc., Daiko Advertising Inc., and Yomiko Advertising Inc. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides comprehensive advertising services.

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Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 10th February ▲7003 8802 2433 ▼6965 9989 6324

10TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - 189 results and 93 revision announcements had little impact on our aggregate Scores, although decliners still outweighed...

Campbell Gunn

CyberAgent (4751 JP): Buy the Dip?

Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP) reported its FY09/19 full-year financial results last week. Consolidated revenue and OP were ¥454 (+8.1% YoY) and ¥31bn...

Supun Walpola

Recruit Holding Placement: Thoughts on Valuation, Past Placements, and Index Event

Recruit Holdings announced a USD 3.8 bn globlal follow-on offering on August 28th, selling up to 121.5 million shares. In our previous insight...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CyberAgent (4751 JP) 2Q Earnings Update: AbemaTV Continues to Impress

Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP) reported 2Q FY09/19 financial results on Wednesday (24th April). CyberAgent reported revenue of ¥117.3bn (+7% YoY) and OP...

Supun Walpola

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 10th February ▲7003 8802 2433 ▼6965 9989 6324

10TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - 189 results and 93 revision announcements had little impact on our aggregate Scores, although decliners still outweighed...

Campbell Gunn

CyberAgent (4751 JP): Buy the Dip?

Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP) reported its FY09/19 full-year financial results last week. Consolidated revenue and OP were ¥454 (+8.1% YoY) and ¥31bn...

Supun Walpola

Recruit Holding Placement: Thoughts on Valuation, Past Placements, and Index Event

Recruit Holdings announced a USD 3.8 bn globlal follow-on offering on August 28th, selling up to 121.5 million shares. In our previous insight...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CyberAgent Revises the OP Guidance Upwards by 5%; Share Price Up 14%

Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP) reported 3Q FY09/19 financial results last week (on Wednesday, 24th July 2019). CyberAgent reported revenue of ¥113.6bn...

Supun Walpola

CyberAgent (4751 JP) 2Q Earnings Update: AbemaTV Continues to Impress

Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP) reported 2Q FY09/19 financial results on Wednesday (24th April). CyberAgent reported revenue of ¥117.3bn (+7% YoY) and OP...

Supun Walpola