Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 31 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 14 June.</li>
<li>We forecast 10 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few months and that could continue as we head to the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 31 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 14 June.
We forecast 10 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX). 
Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few months and that could continue as we head to the end of the review period.


STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes as Potential Adds Outperform

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ended 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.</li>
<li>There are 10 stocks in inclusion zone and 11 in deletion zone. There should be 10 changes since that is the cap for the maximum changes at a single rebalance.</li>
<li>The potential adds and deletes are down between 37-47% over the last 6 months and a long/short trade could provide superior risk-adjusted returns.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ended 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.
There are 10 stocks in inclusion zone and 11 in deletion zone. There should be 10 changes since that is the cap for the maximum changes at a single rebalance.
The potential adds and deletes are down between 37-47% over the last 6 months and a long/short trade could provide superior risk-adjusted returns.


STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup

<ul>
<li>The big price moves for China stocks in the last month have resulted in quite a few changes to the potential index inclusions and deletions in December.</li>
<li>We now forecast no changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index in December.</li>
<li>There will be big selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31062:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) (688981 CH)</a> due to capping and that results in buying in the other <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> constituents.</li>
</ul>


The big price moves for China stocks in the last month have resulted in quite a few changes to the potential index inclusions and deletions in December.
We now forecast no changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index in December.
There will be big selling in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) (688981 CH) due to capping and that results in buying in the other SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) constituents.


STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes for STAR50; 5 for STAR100; US$2bn Trade

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>STAR 50 index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
</ul>


STAR 50 index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the December 2024 index rebal event.


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Dec 24: Shocking Changes to Expectations After Wild Market Swings

Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co Ltd / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>90% of the way through the review period, there could be 1 change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index.</li>
<li>We estimate turnover of 1% for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and 5.5% for the STAR100 Index. The net round-trip trade is CNY 3.2bn (US$453m).</li>
<li>The forecast add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> has massively outperformed the forecast deletion from the index over the last two months.</li>
</ul>


90% of the way through the review period, there could be 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index.
We estimate turnover of 1% for the STAR50 INDEX and 5.5% for the STAR100 Index. The net round-trip trade is CNY 3.2bn (US$453m).
The forecast add to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) has massively outperformed the forecast deletion from the index over the last two months.


STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Massive Outperformance in Last Two Months; Time to Unwind?

China

Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes electrical components. The Company develops, produces, and markets dry type transformers and reactors, medium and low voltage switchgears, power electronic equipment, and other related products. Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology markets its products worldwide.

Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology (688676 CH)

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Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology (688676 CH)

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes as Potential Adds Outperform

Excluding the migrations to/from the STAR50 Index, there has been strong outperformance over the recent past and that could continue for the next...

Brian Freitas

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup

There could be 10 changes for the STAR50 Index in March. The potential adds and deletes have over 2x ADV to trade on average and given the...

Brian Freitas

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes for STAR50; 5 for STAR100; US$2bn Trade

We forecast no changes for the STAR50 and 5 changes for the STAR100. Capping will result in passives selling SMIC. The forecast adds to the STAR100...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Dec 24: Shocking Changes to Expectations After Wild Market Swings

We previously had one expected ADD/DEL for STAR 50 but we do not expect that change to take place now. We also had 6 expected ADDs/DELs for STAR...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Massive Outperformance in Last Two Months; Time to Unwind?

We forecast 1 change for the STAR50 and 5 changes for the STAR100. There is over 9x ADV to trade on the STAR50 changes. The net round-trip trade is...

Brian Freitas

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