China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

Despite the seeming aura of calm that had descended on the RMB and PBOC foreign exchange reserves the past few months, this was a deceptive peace.  The stabilization of PBOC FX reserves was driven almost exclusively by back to back months where either the EUR or the JPY each fell by more than 5% against the USD in one month.  During this same time period, outflows continued to grow rapidly as foreign inflows dropped almost 40%.In the past days, the CNY/CNH spread has drifted apart brought back…

Despite the seeming aura of calm that had descended on the RMB and PBOC foreign exchange reserves the past few months, this was a deceptive peace.  The stabilization of PBOC FX reserves was driven almost exclusively by back to back months where either the EUR or the JPY each fell by more than 5% against the USD in one month.  During this same time period, outflows continued to grow rapidly as foreign inflows dropped almost 40%.In the past days, the CNY/CNH spread has drifted apart brought back…

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As the debate about the sustainability about the increase in Chinese credit has grown, a number of points have been raised about why China simply cannot have some type of financial crisis or even needs more debt.  Though I believe a near term financial crisis is an extremely low but rising probability event, it is clear that the optimism about Chinese debt levels or growth ranges from misguided to uninformed.  Let us elucidate some of these.Myth #1: China has high savings rates.  This is…

As the debate about the sustainability about the increase in Chinese credit has grown, a number of points have been raised about why China simply cannot have some type of financial crisis or even needs more debt.  Though I believe a near term financial crisis is an extremely low but rising probability event, it is clear that the optimism about Chinese debt levels or growth ranges from misguided to uninformed.  Let us elucidate some of these.Myth #1: China has high savings rates.  This is…

As PBOC FX reserves have stabilized, due primarily to revaluation of EUR and JPY holdings, the story has started to circulate that capital outflows from China have declined.  There is little understanding for the channels via which this is happening.  The primary channel for capital outflows from China was overpayment of goods imports and not official portfolio or direct investment.Since March 1, the noted discrepancy between bank payment for imports and the Customs reported value of imports has…

As PBOC FX reserves have stabilized, due primarily to revaluation of EUR and JPY holdings, the story has started to circulate that capital outflows from China have declined.  There is little understanding for the channels via which this is happening.  The primary channel for capital outflows from China was overpayment of goods imports and not official portfolio or direct investment.Since March 1, the noted discrepancy between bank payment for imports and the Customs reported value of imports has…

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Progressively weaker data from China is likely to increase expectations of further depreciation of the RMB, while a continued decline in FX reserves and resulting lower liquidity in the system will add to further stress in the economy.China’s data releases of late have broadly continued to trend lower, with slower growth not just seen in industrial production, but also in loan growth as well as fixed asset investment. It is the renewed slowdown in these two data releases after a period of…

Progressively weaker data from China is likely to increase expectations of further depreciation of the RMB, while a continued decline in FX reserves and resulting lower liquidity in the system will add to further stress in the economy.China’s data releases of late have broadly continued to trend lower, with slower growth not just seen in industrial production, but also in loan growth as well as fixed asset investment. It is the renewed slowdown in these two data releases after a period of…

China: Renewed Concerns About Extent of Slowdown

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

For the most part we focus on loans and other assets in terms of risk. But contingent liabilities should not be forgotten. These can prove to be a surprising source of bad loans, as in the initial stages these facilities are not even on the balance sheet. They are classified as contingent liabilities, and they are contained off-balance sheet. These include credit commitments, letters of credit, loan guarantees and acceptances. Companies pay a fee for these facilities, and there is generally no…

For the most part we focus on loans and other assets in terms of risk. But contingent liabilities should not be forgotten. These can prove to be a surprising source of bad loans, as in the initial stages these facilities are not even on the balance sheet. They are classified as contingent liabilities, and they are contained off-balance sheet. These include credit commitments, letters of credit, loan guarantees and acceptances. Companies pay a fee for these facilities, and there is generally no…

China

Guotai Junan Securities Co.,Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Junan Securities Company serves clients throughout China.

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Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)

RMB Focus: It Was Too Good to Last

Despite the seeming aura of calm that had descended on the RMB and PBOC foreign exchange reserves the past few months, this was a deceptive peace. ...

Christopher Balding

Why China Debt Bulls Are Mostly Wrong

As the debate about the sustainability about the increase in Chinese credit has grown, a number of points have been raised about why China simply...

Christopher Balding

Changing Composition of RMB Outflows

As PBOC FX reserves have stabilized, due primarily to revaluation of EUR and JPY holdings, the story has started to circulate that capital outflows...

Christopher Balding

China: Renewed Concerns About Extent of Slowdown

Progressively weaker data from China is likely to increase expectations of further depreciation of the RMB, while a continued decline in FX...

Rajan Govil

China: Contingent Liabilities

For the most part we focus on loans and other assets in terms of risk. But contingent liabilities should not be forgotten. These can prove to be a...

Daniel Tabbush

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