Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Couple of weeks from the start of the review period for the December rebalance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a>, we see four potential index changes.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that are close to the inclusion zone and there could be a reordering among the non-constituents as stock prices move around.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the year with most of the outperformance coming over the last 6 weeks.</li>
</ul>


Couple of weeks from the start of the review period for the December rebalance of SET 50 Index, we see four potential index changes.
There are a few stocks that are close to the inclusion zone and there could be a reordering among the non-constituents as stock prices move around.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the year with most of the outperformance coming over the last 6 weeks.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes & A Few Close Names

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<ul>
<li>The EA 248A bond meeting on 9-August produced a consent from bondholders to extend the maturity as per the company’s request.</li>
<li>EA’s CFO announced that the company has secured 3-year credit facilities from 9 financial institutions and Asset Plus Securities Fund Management.</li>
<li>Barring any further negative news , we believe the maturity extension and the long-term bank credit facilities could lead TRIS to at least reverse EA’s credit rating outlook.</li>
</ul>


The EA 248A bond meeting on 9-August produced a consent from bondholders to extend the maturity as per the company’s request.
EA’s CFO announced that the company has secured 3-year credit facilities from 9 financial institutions and Asset Plus Securities Fund Management.
Barring any further negative news , we believe the maturity extension and the long-term bank credit facilities could lead TRIS to at least reverse EA’s credit rating outlook.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

<ul>
<li>Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA)’s negative headlines have gradually emerged since the beginning of the year.</li>
<li>The most negative news came on 12-July when Thailand’s Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Mr. Ahunai together with his deputy CEO and his business partner of committing fraud during 2013-2015.</li>
<li>Our liquidity analysis of EA’s latest financial statements ending in March tells us EA does not necessarily have to resort to bankruptcy.</li>
</ul>


Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA)’s negative headlines have gradually emerged since the beginning of the year.
The most negative news came on 12-July when Thailand’s Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Mr. Ahunai together with his deputy CEO and his business partner of committing fraud during 2013-2015.
Our liquidity analysis of EA’s latest financial statements ending in March tells us EA does not necessarily have to resort to bankruptcy.


Energy Absolute: Absolutely Negative Energy

Thailand

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces and sells electricity and steam. The Company manages a portfolio of gas-fired and renewable power projects, as well as supplies steam and chilled water. Gulf Energy Development serves customers in Thailand.

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Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes & A Few Close Names

There are 4 potential changes for the SET50 in Dec. There are some other stocks that could make the cut. The adds have outperformed the deletes....

Brian Freitas

Energy Absolute: Band Aid Secured

We believe EA's near-term liquidity crunch is nearly over. Barring further negative news, the maturity extension and the bank credit facilities...

Bondcritic

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Energy Absolute: Absolutely Negative Energy

Our liquidity analysis tells us EA does not have to resort to bankruptcy. Without a reliable bid-offer, we cannot assign our recommendation though...

Bondcritic

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