External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GGRM’s 6-8% price adjustment YTD may support FY24F margins, but we expect volume may continue to be under pressure.</li><li>We trim our FY24-25F NP by 42-47% due to lower volume assumptions (-8/-13% yoy from -5/0% prev.) and yoy margin pressure.</li><li>We downgrade our rating to Hold with a lower TP of Rp17,500 as we see less rosy NP outlook.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

GGRM’s 6-8% price adjustment YTD may support FY24F margins, but we expect volume may continue to be under pressure.We trim our FY24-25F NP by 42-47% due to lower volume assumptions (-8/-13% yoy from -5/0% prev.) and yoy margin pressure.We downgrade our rating to Hold with a lower TP of Rp17,500 as we see less rosy NP outlook.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gudang Garam - A Still Challenging Outlook Limits Re-Rating Potential

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nusantara-sejahtera-raya" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39908:1" rel="noopener">Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ)</a> aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.</li>
<li>Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.
Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO - The Negatives - Private Placement, Not a Primary Raising

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Multi Bintang Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a> showed a weak print, with sales down 10% YoY and profitability flat for Q1 FY24. Consumption was weak locally despite strong Bali tourism. </li>
<li>On the positive side, the company improved its net cash position to substantially to 900 bn Rph ( or 6% of Mkt Cap) and expanded margins by 400 bps YoY. </li>
<li>Trading at 13x FY23 PE (with a 7% dividend yield assuming a 100% payout), there is great value in this market leader (60% Mkt share) of beer consumption in Indonesia.</li>
</ul>



Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) showed a weak print, with sales down 10% YoY and profitability flat for Q1 FY24. Consumption was weak locally despite strong Bali tourism. 
On the positive side, the company improved its net cash position to substantially to 900 bn Rph ( or 6% of Mkt Cap) and expanded margins by 400 bps YoY. 
Trading at 13x FY23 PE (with a 7% dividend yield assuming a 100% payout), there is great value in this market leader (60% Mkt share) of beer consumption in Indonesia.


Multibintang Q1 FY24: Soft Start, Down to 13x PE and a >7% Dividend Yield

<ul>
<li>In Feb 2024,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/british-american-tobacco-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21828:1" rel="noopener">BAT's</a> management stated that they were reviewing their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a>.  The news of a possible selldown by BAT was leaked again earlier today.</li>
<li>BAT has owned its stake in ITC for over a century and remains its largest shareholder.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


In Feb 2024,  BAT's management stated that they were reviewing their stake in ITC Ltd (ITC IN).  The news of a possible selldown by BAT was leaked again earlier today.
BAT has owned its stake in ITC for over a century and remains its largest shareholder.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


ITC $2bn Placement - Very Well Flagged but Still Won’t Be an Easy One to Digest, Won’t Do an Indigo

Indonesia

PT Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk is a manufacturer of of premium brand cigarettes.

PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry and Trading Company Tbk operates in the food and beverage industry. The Company produces aseptic drinks such as liquid milk, fruit juices and health drinks. Ultrajaya Milk also produces butter, powder milk and sweet condensed milk.

PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk manufactures animal feed, breeds and processes chickens, and operates aquaculture farms.  The Company trades its products domestically and internationally.

PT Siantar Top Tbk manufactures a variety of snack food products.  The Company produces snack noodles, crackers, and candies under the brand names Fuji Mie, Mie Goreng, Olala, Tamiku, Twistko, Tic-Tic, Twistball, Fuji Chips, Tovie Candy, Balico-Kelapa, and XUXU.

PT Multi Bintang Indonesia Tbk manufactures beer. The Company's main products include beer and stout.

PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk and its subsidiaries manufacture instant noodles, wheat flour, baby food, food seasonings, coffee, cooking oil, and snacks.

Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk PT and its subsidiaries develops oil palm and tea plantations.  The Company produces and trades crude palm oil, palm kernel oil, tea, and refined palm products such as cooking oil and margarine.  Sinar Mas also manufactures packaging products such as bottles and caps as well as provides management services.

Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk PT (SMAR IJ)

Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk PT

PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk operates rubber plantations and manufactures cooking oil. Through its subsidiaries,  the Company also operates a variety of other plantations such as palm oil, tea, and cocoa plantations.

PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk operates in the agriculture industry. The Company trades in palm oil.

PT Mayora Indah Tbk manufactures candies and cookies.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures food, coffee powder, instant coffee, and cocoa beans.

Vector Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes in the United States.  The Company is also involved in the real estate business through its subsidiary.

Godfrey Phillips India Limited manufactures and distributes cigarettes, smoking tobacco and cigars.  The Group's brands include Black & White Kingsize Filter, Four Square Kingsize Filter, Cavanders Navy Cut Regular, Red & White, Anand and Leader.  The Company also manufactures Virgin Gold and Philip's Gold cigarette tobacco.

British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited manufactures and sells cigarettes in Bangladesh. The company offers its products under the Benson & Hedges, John Player Gold Leaf, Pall Mall, Capstan, Star, Pilot, Hollywood, Derby, and Bristol brands. It also exports tobacco leafs. The company was formerly known as Bangladesh Tobacco Company Limited and changed its name to British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited in 1998. British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Dhaka, Bangladesh. British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited is a subsidiary of Raleigh Investment Co. Ltd.

British American Tobacco Bangl (BATBC BD)

Eastern Tobacco produces cigarettes, cigars, pipe tobacco, cigarette rolling tobacco and water pipe tobacco.  The Company also produces related products including filter rods, tobacco flakes, paper packets  and printed materials.

Universal Corporation is an independent leaf tobacco merchant.  The Company has additional operations in agri-products and the distribution of lumber and building products.  Universal sells primarily flue-cured and burley tobaccos to manufacturers located throughout the world.

VST Industries Ltd. manufactures and distributes cigarettes and tobacco products. The Company's cigarette brands include "Charminar Specials," "Shah-IDeccan," "Charms Virginia Filter Kings," "Vazir," "Qila" and "Ambassador." VST Industries sells its products in India and abroad.

Ceylon Tobacco Company PLC manufactures and markets cigarettes and smoking tobacco products.

Turning Point Brands, Inc. provides tobacco products. The Company offers a wide range of products, including moist snuff, loose leaf chewing tobacco, cigarette papers, make-your-own cigar wraps and cigar smoking tobacco, cigars, and liquid and tobacco vapor products.

British American Tobacco Malaysia Berhad manufactures, imports, and sells cigarettes, pipe tobaccos, cigars, and luxury consumer products.  The Company also provides travel and advertising and promotional services.

Thai Union Group Public Company Limited produces and exports frozen and canned seafood products including frozen tuna loin, shrimp and cephalopod. The Company also produces canned pet foods from by products of its seafood process.  Additionally, the Company produces fish snack and canned tuna which are marketed locally.

PT Gudang Garam Tbk manufactures and distributes cigarettes and operates activities related to the cigarette industry. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the paper-related activities.

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Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ)

Gudang Garam - A Still Challenging Outlook Limits Re-Rating Potential

GGRM’s 6-8% price adjustment YTD may support FY24F margins, but we expect volume may continue to be under pressure. We trim our FY24-25F NP by 42-47%

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO - The Negatives - Private Placement, Not a Primary Raising

Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Multibintang Q1 FY24: Soft Start, Down to 13x PE and a >7% Dividend Yield

We summarize the earnings of Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ), the market leader in Indonesia for beer consumption, which trades at 13x FY23 PE and >7%...

Sameer Taneja

ITC $2bn Placement - Very Well Flagged but Still Won’t Be an Easy One to Digest, Won’t Do an Indigo

BAT aims to raise around US$2bn via selling 3.5% of ITC. The deal is a very well flagged one but its also relatively a very large deal.

Sumeet Singh

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