Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - August 2019 - Lucror Analytics

In our view, Guangzhou R&F's H1/19 results were weak. The company reported revenue growth of 3%, but margins were lower. Gross profit and EBITDA declined 1% and 6%, respectively. While revenue recognition could pick up in H2, we expect margins to remain under pressure, in line with the soft ASP. The company may miss its full-year sales target, having achieved only 44% of the CNY 160 bn target in the first seven months of 2019. This could prompt it to further sacrifice ASP and margins in order to boost volumes. Leverage deteriorated and the financial profile remains weak. In H1, the company reduced land acquisition spending by 15%, which helps to shore up cash and may signal a shift in strategy towards deleveraging, given tighter funding conditions. The company’s land bank is sizeable and sufficient for 4-5 years of development, supporting a slower pace of acquisitions. Guangzhou R&F has yet to carry out a material equity issuance, despite having floated plans to issue additional H-shares and to list A-shares onshore.

   In our view, Guangzhou R&F's H1/19 results were weak. The company reported revenue growth of 3%, but margins were lower. Gross profit and EBITDA declined 1% and 6%, respectively. While revenue recognition could pick up in H2, we expect margins to remain under pressure, in line with the soft ASP. The company may miss its full-year sales target, having achieved only 44% of the CNY 160 bn target in the first seven months of 2019. This could prompt it to further sacrifice ASP and margins in order to boost volumes.    Leverage deteriorated and the financial profile remains weak. In H1, the company reduced land acquisition spending by 15%, which helps to shore up cash and may signal a shift in strategy towards deleveraging, given tighter funding conditions. The company’s land bank is sizeable and sufficient for 4-5 years of development, supporting a slower pace of acquisitions. Guangzhou R&F has yet to carry out a material equity issuance, despite having floated plans to issue additional H-shares and to list A-shares onshore. 

Guangzhou R&F - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 23 Aug 2019

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 05 Aug 2019

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the background of the last cycle, sales trends, regulatory actions and expectations. We also comment broadly on the FY 2018 and Q1/19 results of real estate companies under our coverage.

   In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the background of the last cycle, sales trends, regulatory actions and expectations. We also comment broadly on the FY 2018 and Q1/19 results of real estate companies under our coverage. 

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Property Update (2019) - Lucror Analytics

China

Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd. operates real estate businesses. The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, property management, and other services. Guangzhou R&F Properties also operates hotel management.

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Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777 HK)

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - August 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

Guangzhou R&F - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

In our view, Guangzhou R&F's H1/19 results were weak. The company reported revenue growth of 3%, but margins were lower. Gross profit and...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 23 Aug 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 05 Aug 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Property Update (2019) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the background of the last cycle, sales...

Lucror Analytics

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