Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

We view Guangzhou R&F (GRF) as “High Risk” on the LARA scale. The company has a weak financial profile due to aggressive debt-funded growth in the past. Its liquidity is poor, and depends heavily on continued access to the debt capital markets. Positively, the company has a long operating history and diversified geographical coverage. GRF targets the mid-range to high-end residential markets. It has amassed a large and well-distributed land reserve, thanks to an aggressive land-banking strategy. In addition, the company has a sizeable portfolio of hotels and other investment properties, which contributes recurring income.   Our fundamental Credit Bias on GRF is “Negative”, owing to its: [1] persistent high leverage; [2] margin decline; and [3] substantial near-term debt maturities. Moreover, the sizeable hotel business has been severely affected by COVID-19. Positively, the company is likely to focus on deleveraging through asset sales, scaling down land acquisitions and increasing inventory destocking. We view GRF as "Weak" on the LAGA scale. The company is controlled by founders Li Sze Lim (Chairman) and Zhang Li (Co-Chairman and CEO), who together own 56% of GRF. Two NEDs are family members of the founders. Mr Li and Mr Zhang do not appear to have any family connections, with one being from Hong Kong and the other from Guangzhou.

  We view Guangzhou R&F (GRF) as “High Risk” on the LARA scale. The company has a weak financial profile due to aggressive debt-funded growth in the past. Its liquidity is poor, and depends heavily on continued access to the debt capital markets. Positively, the company has a long operating history and diversified geographical coverage. GRF targets the mid-range to high-end residential markets. It has amassed a large and well-distributed land reserve, thanks to an aggressive land-banking strategy. In addition, the company has a sizeable portfolio of hotels and other investment properties, which contributes recurring income.     Our fundamental Credit Bias on GRF is “Negative”, owing to its: [1] persistent high leverage; [2] margin decline; and [3] substantial near-term debt maturities. Moreover, the sizeable hotel business has been severely affected by COVID-19. Positively, the company is likely to focus on deleveraging through asset sales, scaling down land acquisitions and increasing inventory destocking.   We view GRF as "Weak" on the LAGA scale. The company is controlled by founders Li Sze Lim (Chairman) and Zhang Li (Co-Chairman and CEO), who together own 56% of GRF. Two NEDs are family members of the founders. Mr Li and Mr Zhang do not appear to have any family connections, with one being from Hong Kong and the other from Guangzhou. 

Guangzhou R&F - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-2312'>Alam Sutera Realty</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-13022'>Anton Oilfield</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-6159'>China SCE</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-227'>Guangzhou R&F Properties</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18561'>JSW Steel Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20844'>Medco Energi</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-28672'>Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8898'>Sino Ocean Land</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-22202'>Vedanta Resources</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-5519'>Suzhou Boamax Tech Group</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Alam Sutera RealtyAnton OilfieldChina SCEGuangzhou R&F PropertiesJSW Steel LtdMedco EnergiPowerlong Commercial Management HoldingsSino Ocean LandVedanta ResourcesSuzhou Boamax Tech Group

Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, Anton Oilfield, China SCE, Guangzhou R&F Properties

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After 3 months of consistent decline, our China Property Sentiment Indicator is showing notable signs of recovery</li>
<li>News attribution suggests this is primarily driven by decreasing negative coverage as the Evergrande liquidity crisis was averted limiting broader contagion; continued momentum on developer spin-offs of property management subsidiaries; and strong Golden Week consumption metrics related to home furnishings &amp; building products (a secondary parameter in our indicator)</li>
<li>Our text mining already incorporates recent negative news on shrinking land premiums, as well as coverage on (expectedly) heavy discounting during Golden Week sales; but the overall tone of coverage remains "less negative" in the month-to-date</li>
<li>The TMI China Property Sentiment Indicator has been 58% correlated with Chinese real estate equities (via CHIR ETF), 40%-54% with Chinese HY (via KCCB ETF), and 65% with copper prices (on a T24M basis)</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


After 3 months of consistent decline, our China Property Sentiment Indicator is showing notable signs of recovery
News attribution suggests this is primarily driven by decreasing negative coverage as the Evergrande liquidity crisis was averted limiting broader contagion; continued momentum on developer spin-offs of property management subsidiaries; and strong Golden Week consumption metrics related to home furnishings &amp; building products (a secondary parameter in our indicator)
Our text mining already incorporates recent negative news on shrinking land premiums, as well as coverage on (expectedly) heavy discounting during Golden Week sales; but the overall tone of coverage remains "less negative" in the month-to-date
The TMI China Property Sentiment Indicator has been 58% correlated with Chinese real estate equities (via CHIR ETF), 40%-54% with Chinese HY (via KCCB ETF), and 65% with copper prices (on a T24M basis)
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots: China Property Sentiment Indicators Recover Post "Three Red Lines" & Evergrande Drama

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we consider China’s new Three Red Lines leverage guidelines for developers, which have been rolled out on a limited basis. We also look at the context for the policy’s introduction and its implications on credit access for industry players at large.  The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we consider China’s new Three Red Lines leverage guidelines for developers, which have been rolled out on a limited basis. We also look at the context for the policy’s introduction and its implications on credit access for industry players at large.    The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - China's Three Red Lines - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - September 2020 - Lucror Analytics

China

Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd. operates real estate businesses. The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, property management, and other services. Guangzhou R&F Properties also operates hotel management.

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Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777 HK)

Guangzhou R&F - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

We view Guangzhou R&F (GRF) as “High Risk” on the LARA scale. The company has a weak financial profile due to aggressive debt-funded growth...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, Anton Oilfield, China SCE, Guangzhou R&F Properties

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

TMI Snapshots: China Property Sentiment Indicators Recover Post "Three Red Lines" & Evergrande Drama

After 3 months of consistent slowdown and a dip into outright negative territory, our China Property Indicator is showing signs of recovery News...

Elan Gore

Asia HY Monthly - China's Three Red Lines - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we consider China’s new Three Red Lines leverage guidelines for developers, which have been rolled out on a...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - September 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report...

Lucror Analytics

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