Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections. Additionally, 10-year yields in the US and Germany are breaking down below key support. These deteriorating market dynamics raise concerns of a deeper pullback, however other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market. Actionable themes highlighted in today's report include Health Care and Real Estate.

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections. Additionally, 10-year yields in the US and Germany are breaking down below key support. These deteriorating market dynamics raise concerns of a deeper pullback, however other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market. Actionable themes highlighted in today's report include Health Care and Real Estate.

Global Equity Strategy: Mixed Market Environment Continues As Yields Break Down

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
GSK has issued their response to Elliot’s letter, released 1st July 2021. The content of the response in our view reveals a lack of commitment, and a rather overly defensive stance suggesting GSK have been caught off guard by the letter. </li>
<li>
We discuss what investors (and GSK) should prepare for next. We sense whilst support is being named by GSK certain lines that have been laid out by investors, shareholders, and activists. These lines are set to be tested in the coming months. We discuss the key points and areas where named support may be at risk. We specifically, detail what investors and "long-standing" shareholders might wish to prepare for next from both GSK and Elliot. </li>
<li>The Silver Lining to all this: The one thing which is positive from this response is that GSK has confirmed that potential conditions are now present to achieve a higher share price in the coming months.</li>
</ul>



GSK has issued their response to Elliot’s letter, released 1st July 2021. The content of the response in our view reveals a lack of commitment, and a rather overly defensive stance suggesting GSK have been caught off guard by the letter. 

We discuss what investors (and GSK) should prepare for next. We sense whilst support is being named by GSK certain lines that have been laid out by investors, shareholders, and activists. These lines are set to be tested in the coming months. We discuss the key points and areas where named support may be at risk. We specifically, detail what investors and "long-standing" shareholders might wish to prepare for next from both GSK and Elliot. 
The Silver Lining to all this: The one thing which is positive from this response is that GSK has confirmed that potential conditions are now present to achieve a higher share price in the coming months.


GSK (GSK.L/​​GSK.N) Fails to Impress, in Their Response to Elliot

<ul>
<li>
Elliot's 17-page “open letter” to GSK signals the start of a public campaign, which is expected to see remuneration and proxy-led campaign increase in velocity. </li>
<li>
Elliot Advisors' frustrations have been unleashed following the 23rd June 2021 briefing, via this letter. We examine the facts presented and how these may be interpreted. </li>
<li>
Elliot's investment case outlined in the letter further supports our view around the embedded value within GSK, as well as the likelihood of increased activism.</li>
<li>We discuss the next steps for GSK and investors and why we support Elliot's view to &gt;45%: It is now up to GSK and investors to firm up their positions, as well as for fellow activists to decide if they wish to join the public campaign. We detail why we fully expect further activist funds to join the campaign. </li>
</ul>



Elliot's 17-page “open letter” to GSK signals the start of a public campaign, which is expected to see remuneration and proxy-led campaign increase in velocity. 

Elliot Advisors' frustrations have been unleashed following the 23rd June 2021 briefing, via this letter. We examine the facts presented and how these may be interpreted. 

Elliot's investment case outlined in the letter further supports our view around the embedded value within GSK, as well as the likelihood of increased activism.
We discuss the next steps for GSK and investors and why we support Elliot's view to &gt;45%: It is now up to GSK and investors to firm up their positions, as well as for fellow activists to decide if they wish to join the public campaign. We detail why we fully expect further activist funds to join the campaign. 


GSK (GSK.L/​GSK.N) Elliot Goes Public with Campaign Demands

<ul>
<li>
Elliot Advisor's activist campaign has put some pressure on GSK. The "New GSK" Investor Day on 23rd June was the first public event since the campaign broke in the mainstream media. </li>
<li>
The Investor Day was always expected to form a key defence forum for management to justify the board's and management’s strategy. As expected, the CEO and loyal lieutenants came out swinging.</li>
<li>
While some good data points were presented at the briefing around the embedded value behind the stock and the progress of the Vaccine and Speciality Business, management made some strategic missteps in the briefing.  </li>
<li>
Look for three items to benefit GSK's share price in the coming quarters. Firstly, a greater focus from the market on the value which exists within. Secondly, a strong likelihood that Elliot Advisors won't be the last activist making demands on GSK. Thirdly, good potential for an acceleration of fundamentals.</li>
<li>
We walk through the good, bad, and the ugly from the briefing, and highlight why Activist presence is but one key reason why GSK is set to break out of a long term trading range and upside to a fair value of GBP21.25/share or US$59.00/ADR is increasingly likely. </li>
<li>Our note builds off the Investment thesis and review of Elliot's campaign in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gsk-gsk-l-why-activism-might-be-the-right-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53323" rel="noopener">GSK (GSK.L) Why Activism Might Be the Right Medicine.</a>
</li>
</ul>



Elliot Advisor's activist campaign has put some pressure on GSK. The "New GSK" Investor Day on 23rd June was the first public event since the campaign broke in the mainstream media. 

The Investor Day was always expected to form a key defence forum for management to justify the board's and management’s strategy. As expected, the CEO and loyal lieutenants came out swinging.

While some good data points were presented at the briefing around the embedded value behind the stock and the progress of the Vaccine and Speciality Business, management made some strategic missteps in the briefing.  

Look for three items to benefit GSK's share price in the coming quarters. Firstly, a greater focus from the market on the value which exists within. Secondly, a strong likelihood that Elliot Advisors won't be the last activist making demands on GSK. Thirdly, good potential for an acceleration of fundamentals.

We walk through the good, bad, and the ugly from the briefing, and highlight why Activist presence is but one key reason why GSK is set to break out of a long term trading range and upside to a fair value of GBP21.25/share or US$59.00/ADR is increasingly likely. 
Our note builds off the Investment thesis and review of Elliot's campaign in GSK (GSK.L) Why Activism Might Be the Right Medicine.



GSK (GSK.L/GSK.N) Activists Likely to Question the Spin-Off

<ul>
<li>
We see a fair value of GBP21.25/share, without significant value uplift from the Consumer Healthcare spinoff. Reviewing the Consumer Healthcare stub trade suggests GSK trades at 30-40% discount to its Pharma peers.</li>
<li>
We identify six fundamental reasons supporting a breakout from GSK's 10-year trading range.</li>
<li>GSK being subject to an Activist (Elliot Advisors) on its register is just one of our reasons for a share price re-rating. We see this as providing the CEO with a stronger mandate for change. </li>
<li>
Management providing News flow and clarity around growth plans and the Consumer Healthcare Spinoff on 23rd June 2021 should create visibility on the embedded value to be unlocked.</li>
</ul>



We see a fair value of GBP21.25/share, without significant value uplift from the Consumer Healthcare spinoff. Reviewing the Consumer Healthcare stub trade suggests GSK trades at 30-40% discount to its Pharma peers.

We identify six fundamental reasons supporting a breakout from GSK's 10-year trading range.
GSK being subject to an Activist (Elliot Advisors) on its register is just one of our reasons for a share price re-rating. We see this as providing the CEO with a stronger mandate for change. 

Management providing News flow and clarity around growth plans and the Consumer Healthcare Spinoff on 23rd June 2021 should create visibility on the embedded value to be unlocked.


GSK (GSK.L) Why Activism Might Be the Right Medicine.

United States

GSK PLC operates as a research-based pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets vaccines, prescription, and over-the-counter medicines, as well as health-related consumer products. GSK provides products for infections, depression, skin conditions, asthma, heart and circulatory disease, and cancer.

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GSK (GSK US)

Global Equity Strategy: Mixed Market Environment Continues As Yields Break Down

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections and 10-year yields in the US and Germany are...

Vermilion Research

GSK (GSK.L/GSK.N) Fails to Impress, in Their Response to Elliot

@GSK response to the @elliot letter highlights defensive stance suggesting GSK caught off guard. Our latest commentary covers the response, why...

David Lepper

GSK (GSK.L/GSK.N) Elliot Goes Public with Campaign Demands

Elliot's @GSK “open letter” signals the start of a remuneration & proxy campaign. GSK's response is key to neutralising campaign & maintaining...

David Lepper

GSK (GSK.L/GSK.N) Activists Likely to Question the Spin-Off

Good data points were presented at the #GSK briefing around the embedded value, but strategic missteps by management may question the spin-off...

David Lepper

GSK (GSK.L) Why Activism Might Be the Right Medicine.

GSK share price at the lower level of a 10-year trading range. An activist & an 23rd June briefing from the CEO on an asset spin-off and future...

David Lepper

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Equity Strategy: Mixed Market Environment Continues As Yields Break Down

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections and 10-year yields in the US and Germany are...

Vermilion Research

GSK (GSK.L/​​GSK.N) Fails to Impress, in Their Response to Elliot

@GSK response to the @elliot letter highlights defensive stance suggesting GSK caught off guard. Our latest commentary covers the response, why...

David Lepper

GSK (GSK.L/​GSK.N) Elliot Goes Public with Campaign Demands

Elliot's @GSK “open letter” signals the start of a remuneration & proxy campaign. GSK's response is key to neutralising campaign & maintaining...

David Lepper

GSK (GSK.L/GSK.N) Activists Likely to Question the Spin-Off

Good data points were presented at the #GSK briefing around the embedded value, but strategic missteps by management may question the spin-off...

David Lepper

GSK (GSK.L) Why Activism Might Be the Right Medicine.

GSK share price at the lower level of a 10-year trading range. An activist & an 23rd June briefing from the CEO on an asset spin-off and future...

David Lepper

GSK (GSK.L/GSK.N) Fails to Impress, in Their Response to Elliot

GSK (GSK.L/GSK.N) Elliot Goes Public with Campaign Demands