Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We mapped the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies and compared it against the current Israel-Hamas war. The trends are uncannily similar </li>
<li>Downside pressure lasts for two weeks, followed by a recovery. This suggests good short-term trading opportunities  </li>
<li>Stocks that exhibits deep value are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/us-global-jets-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32756:1" rel="noopener">US Global Jets ETF (JETS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-aeroportuario-cen-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28565:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr (OMAB US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-aeroport-del-sureste-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27377:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Aeroport Del Sureste-B (ASURB MM), and Aeroportua Del Pacifica (GAPB MM)</a>
</li>
</ul>


We mapped the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies and compared it against the current Israel-Hamas war. The trends are uncannily similar 
Downside pressure lasts for two weeks, followed by a recovery. This suggests good short-term trading opportunities  
Stocks that exhibits deep value are US Global Jets ETF (JETS US), Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr (OMAB US), Grupo Aeroport Del Sureste-B (ASURB MM), and Aeroportua Del Pacifica (GAPB MM)



The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

China Galaxy Securities (H) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.</li>
<li>The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.
The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

Mexico

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. (OMA) operates international airports in the northern and central regions of Mexico. The airports serve Monterrey, Acapulco, Mazatlan, Zihuatanejo and several other regional centers and border cities.

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Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr (OMAB US)

The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

Comparing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies to the current Israel-Hamas war reveals similar trends, suggesting trading...

Mohshin Aziz

WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

There are 364 adds/325 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index. One-way turnover is 45% resulting in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

​Comparing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies to the current Israel-Hamas war reveals similar trends, suggesting trading...

Mohshin Aziz

WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

There are 364 adds/325 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index. One-way turnover is 45% resulting in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Comparing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies to the current Israel-Hamas war reveals similar trends, suggesting trading...