Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A shares were down on the week, but rallied Thursday and Friday.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK8.5bn after $57bn the two weeks before. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive net daily buy streak Monday, then started buying again.</li>
<li>The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week. Again.</li>
</ul>


A shares were down on the week, but rallied Thursday and Friday.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK8.5bn after $57bn the two weeks before. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive net daily buy streak Monday, then started buying again.
The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week. Again.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> has despatched the offer document, and the H Share HK$7.50 offer is open. The H Shareholders class vote is on 18 April.  </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>The de-rating of peers and ongoing US investigation favours meeting the 90% threshold. However, the dire minority AGM/EGM participation rates suggest that retail apathy may derail the offer. </li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) has despatched the offer document, and the H Share HK$7.50 offer is open. The H Shareholders class vote is on 18 April.  
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
The de-rating of peers and ongoing US investigation favours meeting the 90% threshold. However, the dire minority AGM/EGM participation rates suggest that retail apathy may derail the offer. 


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Vote on 18 April as Uncertainty Lingers on the 90% Acceptance Threshold

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND a net buyer <em>every day</em> since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.</li>
<li>For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.
For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Overseas traveling revenue recovered strongly in China during the Chinese New Year.</li>
<li>Great Wall Motor’s vehicle deliveries increased by 69% in January 2024.</li>
<li>JD.com plans to raise the salaries for customer service employees by 30% in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Overseas traveling revenue recovered strongly in China during the Chinese New Year.
Great Wall Motor’s vehicle deliveries increased by 69% in January 2024.
JD.com plans to raise the salaries for customer service employees by 30% in 2024.


China Consumption Weekly (19 Feb 2024): Ant Group, Great Wall Motor, JD.com, Baidu, Autohome

<ul>
<li>A bad week for HK and Chinese shares. National Team buying seems lighter into the waning days of the Year of the Rabbit.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.0bn in the shortened pre-holiday week.</li>
<li>Remarkable this past week, again, was the tendency to net sell names which were down hard, and net buy names which have been performing well.</li>
</ul>


A bad week for HK and Chinese shares. National Team buying seems lighter into the waning days of the Year of the Rabbit.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.0bn in the shortened pre-holiday week.
Remarkable this past week, again, was the tendency to net sell names which were down hard, and net buy names which have been performing well.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

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Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect was a net buyer again this week, but the streak of consecutive buying since Chinese New Year was broken on Monday. SOEs and...

Travis Lundy

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Vote on 18 April as Uncertainty Lingers on the 90% Acceptance Threshold

The 90% minimum acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer and poor minority AGM/EGM participation rates. Risk/reward...

Arun George

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

AH Premia narrowed more on liquid narrow premia than on less liquid and wide premia. This is a new development. Energy and Utilities saw Hs rebound...

Travis Lundy

China Consumption Weekly (19 Feb 2024): Ant Group, Great Wall Motor, JD.com, Baidu, Autohome

Overseas traveling recovered strongly during the Chinese New Year. Great Wall Motor’s vehicle deliveries increased by 69% in Jan 2024. JD.com plans...

Ming Lu

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL

SOUTHBOUND saw net buying on this shortened week pre-CNY as stocks rebounded from the previous week's dramatic selloff. High Div SOEs were bought...

Travis Lundy

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