Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It is easy to understand why there has been and remains so much hope regarding the profitability of China’s banks. The simple answer is penetration. Here we are referring to how accessible banking is to the population, and we measure this by population/bank branches. Where banking is less accessible and limited, there is less competition and a greater ability for banks to charge high prices.This should be reflected in the variance of net interest margins by country. But it is not this simple…

It is easy to understand why there has been and remains so much hope regarding the profitability of China’s banks. The simple answer is penetration. Here we are referring to how accessible banking is to the population, and we measure this by population/bank branches. Where banking is less accessible and limited, there is less competition and a greater ability for banks to charge high prices.This should be reflected in the variance of net interest margins by country. But it is not this simple…

Asia-Pacific: Branch Banking and Profitability

While we tend to focus on impaired loans, a look at credit-risk assets can be revealing.This is especially the case with respect to the rate of change and compared with underlying assets. For instance, if a bank is reporting a sharp rise in its credit risk assets but only a slight rise in loans, this can suggest worsening credit metrics.In practice, this would likely mean deterioration in the probability of default (PD) or loss given default (LGD) of its loans.HSBC’s data is telling, where for…

While we tend to focus on impaired loans, a look at credit-risk assets can be revealing.This is especially the case with respect to the rate of change and compared with underlying assets. For instance, if a bank is reporting a sharp rise in its credit risk assets but only a slight rise in loans, this can suggest worsening credit metrics.In practice, this would likely mean deterioration in the probability of default (PD) or loss given default (LGD) of its loans.HSBC’s data is telling, where for…

A Look at Credit Risk Assets Can Be Revealing

Freelance Research Analyst

Tay Hock Meng

The latest 1Q2016 industrial prices and rents released by JTC Corporation showed declines of 2.5% and 2.7% respectively compared to 4Q2015. On a yearly basis, both industrial property prices and rents fell by around 5% as compared to 1Q2015. The yearly decline in industrial property prices were led by single-user factories which fell by 6.2% as compared to previous year, while the multiple-user industrial rents fell the most by 7% on a yearly basis. This led to an overall 5.1% yearly decline in industrial rentals in 1Q2016.

The latest 1Q2016 industrial prices and rents released by JTC Corporation showed declines of 2.5% and 2.7% respectively compared to 4Q2015. On a yearly basis, both industrial property prices and rents fell by around 5% as compared to 1Q2015. The yearly decline in industrial property prices were led by single-user factories which fell by 6.2% as compared to previous year, while the multiple-user industrial rents fell the most by 7% on a yearly basis. This led to an overall 5.1% yearly decline in industrial rentals in 1Q2016.

A Continuing Glut of Industrial Land Supply in Singapore

Asia's Leading Online Property Group, PropertyGuru

Bjorn Sprengers

Asia's Leading Online Property Group

PropertyGuru

PropertyGuru Pte Ltd owns and operates a real estate property information website. The Company offers facilities to search for condominiums, apartments, Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats, serviced apartments, houses, and commercial properties to rent and buy in Singapore.

Executive condominiums are a unique hybrid property class, and are popular due to the lifestyle they offer at more affordable prices. The market has been struggling over a number of quarters, but there are signs of optimism on the horizon ahead. We give you our Guru View: <ul><li>The EC market stagnated in previous years due to oversupply, compounded by a slowing property market</li><li>With the tapering of land sales for this property class, and more conservative bids by developers, we are seeing signs of optimism entering the market</li><li>For HDB upgraders especially, it is a good time to enter the market</li><li>ECs continue to see sound capital appreciation in the long term </li></ul>

Executive condominiums are a unique hybrid property class, and are popular due to the lifestyle they offer at more affordable prices. The market has been struggling over a number of quarters, but there are signs of optimism on the horizon ahead. We give you our Guru View: The EC market stagnated in previous years due to oversupply, compounded by a slowing property marketWith the tapering of land sales for this property class, and more conservative bids by developers, we are seeing signs of optimism entering the marketFor HDB upgraders especially, it is a good time to enter the marketECs continue to see sound capital appreciation in the long term 

Executive Condominiums: Light at the End of the Tunnel?

<ul><li>In China bad loan coverage ratios are falling fast, and there is talk that regulators will even lower minimum requirements. No good can come of this.</li><li>OCBC’s recent disclosure is interesting in two respects, where we believe there has been little focus.</li><li>While headline profit growth at HDFC Bank may be wonderful, we are doubtful that the market is aware underlying bad loan growth.</li></ul>

In China bad loan coverage ratios are falling fast, and there is talk that regulators will even lower minimum requirements. No good can come of this.OCBC’s recent disclosure is interesting in two respects, where we believe there has been little focus.While headline profit growth at HDFC Bank may be wonderful, we are doubtful that the market is aware underlying bad loan growth. 

Singapore

United Overseas Insurance Limited and its subsidiary, UOB Insurance (H.K.) Limited, underwrite general insurance and reinsurance. General insurance covers fire, marine, motor, engineering, general accident and liability businesses.

Singapore Exchange Limited owns and operates Singapore's Securities and derivatives exchange and their related clearing houses.  The Company also provides ancillary securities processing and information technology services to participants in the financial sector.

UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Limited is an investment holding company whose subsidiaries provide management services.  The Company provides stock broking, futures broking, investment trading, nominee services, margin financing, and research activities.

Yangzijiang Financial Holding Ltd operates as an investment holding company. The Company serves customers in Singapore.

Hong Leong Finance Limited provides depository and financing services to its clients.  The Company's services include hire purchase, leasing, factoring, mortgages, and other secured loans in the commercial, industrial, and consumer sectors.

Pacific Century Regional Developments Limited operates in the holding of investments and development of infrastructure and properties.

Pacific Century Regional Developments (PAC SP)

Valuemax Group Ltd. operates pawnshops. The Company provides the valuation of products for pawning, selling and buying through its outlet stores..

G. K. Goh Holdings Limited is a diversified investment holding company with significant exposure to the aged care industry, corporate and business services, property development and fibre networks.

Sing Investments & Finance Limited provides loans and credit services to individuals and businesses.  The Company also offers deposit, hire purchase financing, mortgage lending, stock and share financing, trade and inventory financing, equipment leasing, and nominee services.

Maxi-Cash Financial Services Corp Ltd. offers financial services. The Company offers its services in the form of pawnbroking and the retail and trading of pre-owned jewellery and watches through pawnshops and retail outlets in locations throughout Singapore.

Maxi Cash Financial Services Corp (MCFS SP)

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers auto, fire, marine, casualty, health, leisure, and retirement products and services. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

Japan Post Insurance Co. Ltd. operates life insurance business. The Company offers whole life insurance, education endowment, ordinary endowment, medical insurance, and special endowment insurance. Japan Post Insurance provides services for individuals and businesses throughout Japan.

Globe Life Inc. operates as an insurance company. The Company offers term, whole, and children's life insurance, as well as accidental benefits, mortgage protection, and medicare supplement plans. Globe Life operates in the State of Texas.

Unum Group provides group disability and special risk insurance.  The Company provides disability insurance, group life insurance, and payroll-deducted voluntary benefits offered to employees at their worksites.

T&D Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Taiyo Life Insurance, Daido Life Insurance, and T&D Financial Life Insurance. The Company manages life insurance operations for its subsidiaries.

Assurant, Inc. provides specialized insurance and insurance-related products. The Company offers individual and small employer group health insurance, group dental insurance, pre-funded funeral insurance, group disability and life insurance, creditor-placed homeowners insurance, manufactured housing homeowners insurance, debt protection administration, credit insurance, and warranties.

Primerica Inc. distributes financial products to middle income households in North America. The Company products include term life insurance, mutual funds, variable annuities and other financial products, which are distribute primarily on behalf of third parties.

American Financial Group, Inc. provides multi-line property and casualty insurance.  The Company also sells tax-deferred annuities and certain life and supplemental health insurance products.  American Financial operates in the United States.

Old Republic International Corporation is an insurance holding company whose subsidiaries market, underwrite, and provide risk management services.  The Company provides services for a variety of coverages in the property and liability, mortgage guaranty, title, and life and health insurance fields.

AEGON N.V. offers life and health insurance, and related pension, savings, and investment products in Europe and North America.  The Company also offers property and casualty insurance in the Netherlands, Spain, and Hungary, and financial services including banking, equipment lease financing, and mortgage lending.

Great Eastern Holdings Limited operates in the life insurance business. The Company provides fund management services including retirement plans and endowments as well as life and health insurance, personal accident insurance, and general insurance

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Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)

Asia-Pacific: Branch Banking and Profitability

It is easy to understand why there has been and remains so much hope regarding the profitability of China’s banks. The simple answer is...

Daniel Tabbush

A Look at Credit Risk Assets Can Be Revealing

While we tend to focus on impaired loans, a look at credit-risk assets can be revealing.This is especially the case with respect to the rate of...

Daniel Tabbush

A Continuing Glut of Industrial Land Supply in Singapore

The latest 1Q2016 industrial prices and rents released by JTC Corporation showed declines of 2.5% and 2.7% respectively compared to 4Q2015. On a...

Tay Hock Meng

Executive Condominiums: Light at the End of the Tunnel?

Executive condominiums are a unique hybrid property class, and are popular due to the lifestyle they offer at more affordable prices. The market...

PropertyGuru

Asian Banks – Ruminations

In China bad loan coverage ratios are falling fast, and there is talk that regulators will even lower minimum requirements. No good can come of...

Daniel Tabbush

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