Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Y/Y improvement for LCD panel, 8"/12" raw wafer, CMOS sensor, GaAs RF, cooling system, design service, and semi equipment and material vendors but y/y deterioration for PC/server and gaming vendors. </li>
<li>After 9 vendors beating consensus, we might see smartphone IC and RF, semi equipment OEM, and design service vendors in US to report a better than expected 4Q23 sales/earnings.    </li>
<li>After 6 vendors missing consensus, we might see PC/general server IC and niche memory vendors in US to report a worse than expected 4Q23 sales and earnings.</li>
</ul>


Y/Y improvement for LCD panel, 8"/12" raw wafer, CMOS sensor, GaAs RF, cooling system, design service, and semi equipment and material vendors but y/y deterioration for PC/server and gaming vendors. 
After 9 vendors beating consensus, we might see smartphone IC and RF, semi equipment OEM, and design service vendors in US to report a better than expected 4Q23 sales/earnings.    
After 6 vendors missing consensus, we might see PC/general server IC and niche memory vendors in US to report a worse than expected 4Q23 sales and earnings.


Stories Behind the Reported Dec/4Q23 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

<ul>
<li>With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. </li>
<li>SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. </li>
<li>New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. </li>
</ul>


With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. 
SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. 
New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. 


A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Summary</h2><p><em>Despite much in line 2H17 comparing to consensus estimates, we believe analysts are looking TSMC beyond 2H17 for Qualcomm's 7nm orders back from Samsung to mitigate seasonal slow 1H18, new drivers in high-performance computing HPC/AI/IOT/automotive/CoWoS, and likely cash dividends raising. Rich valuation (comparing to the past) might concern some analysts (17 Buys and 15 Holds) but we see the secular trend intact with a relatively reasonable valuation of 18x P/E by comparing over US</em>…</p>

SummaryDespite much in line 2H17 comparing to consensus estimates, we believe analysts are looking TSMC beyond 2H17 for Qualcomm's 7nm orders back from Samsung to mitigate seasonal slow 1H18, new drivers in high-performance computing HPC/AI/IOT/automotive/CoWoS, and likely cash dividends raising. Rich valuation (comparing to the past) might concern some analysts (17 Buys and 15 Holds) but we see the secular trend intact with a relatively reasonable valuation of 18x P/E by comparing over US…

TSMC: Strong 2H but Most in Line; Hiking Capex and Pulling in 7nm for Qualcomm?

Taiwan

Grand Plastic Technology Corp.  specializes in equipment for back end semiconductor manufacturing.  The Company's equipment is used for bumping in the semiconductor packaging and assembly step.

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Grand Plastic Technology (3131 TT)

Stories Behind the Reported Dec/4Q23 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Stories Behind the Reported Dec/4Q23 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; Y/Y improvement for LCD panel, 8"/12" raw wafer, CMOS sensor, GaAs RF, cooling system,...

Andrew Lu

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

TSMC: Strong 2H but Most in Line; Hiking Capex and Pulling in 7nm for Qualcomm?

SummaryDespite much in line 2H17 comparing to consensus estimates, we believe analysts are looking TSMC beyond 2H17 for Qualcomm's 7nm orders back...

Andrew Lu

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