Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are three major reasons why we believe Korean casinos are likely to continue to outperform the market this year.</li>
<li>Three main reasons include hedge against rising inflation, Korea and other major countries are opening up for travel, and continued decline in gambling revenues in Macau.</li>
<li>Finally, among the four major Korean casino stocks, we have Positive views on GKL, Paradise, and Kangwon Land. We have Negative view on Lotte Tour Development due to valuation.</li>
</ul>


There are three major reasons why we believe Korean casinos are likely to continue to outperform the market this year.
Three main reasons include hedge against rising inflation, Korea and other major countries are opening up for travel, and continued decline in gambling revenues in Macau.
Finally, among the four major Korean casino stocks, we have Positive views on GKL, Paradise, and Kangwon Land. We have Negative view on Lotte Tour Development due to valuation.


Three Major Reasons Why Korean Casinos Are Likely to Outperform the Market This Year

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There were 128k visitors to South Korea in April, up 32% MoM which was the biggest jump in MoM change in visitors to South Korea in the past year.</li>
<li>There were 215k outbound people from South Korea in April 2022, up 48% MoM and up 202% YoY.</li>
<li>Among the 21 major reopening plays in Korea, we prefer certain sectors including casino related plays (GKL, Paradise, and Kangwon Land) as well as F&amp;B related (Hitejinro and CJ Cheiljedang).</li>
</ul>


There were 128k visitors to South Korea in April, up 32% MoM which was the biggest jump in MoM change in visitors to South Korea in the past year.
There were 215k outbound people from South Korea in April 2022, up 48% MoM and up 202% YoY.
Among the 21 major reopening plays in Korea, we prefer certain sectors including casino related plays (GKL, Paradise, and Kangwon Land) as well as F&amp;B related (Hitejinro and CJ Cheiljedang).


Significant MoM Increase in Inbound & Outbound Visitors in Korea in April 2022

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance ended on Friday. The changes will be announced in around 3 weeks and will be effective after the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>We see 7 changes for the index with most of them being high probability. The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletions, but have given up some gains in April.</li>
<li>Short interest on some of the potential deletions has risen sharply over the last month and now almost equals the estimated passive selling.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance ended on Friday. The changes will be announced in around 3 weeks and will be effective after the close on 9 June.
We see 7 changes for the index with most of them being high probability. The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletions, but have given up some gains in April.
Short interest on some of the potential deletions has risen sharply over the last month and now almost equals the estimated passive selling.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Review Period Ends as Reversion Kicks In

<ul>
<li>Over 3/4th of the way through the review period for the June rebalance, we see 7 potential changes to the KOSPI200 Index. Most are high probability changes.</li>
<li>Potential inclusions: F&amp;F (383220 KS), SD Biosensor (137310 KS), Meritz Fire &amp; Marine (000060 KS), Iljin Hysolus (271940 KS), K Car (381970 KS), Hanil Cement (300720 KS), Hana Tour (039130).</li>
<li>Potential deletions: Cuckoo Holdings (192400 KS), S&amp;T Motiv (064960 KS), Nexen Tire (002350 KS), Hyundai Home Shopping (057050 KS), Cuckoo Homesys (284740 KS), Sk Discovery (006120), Grand Korea Leisure (114090).</li>
</ul>


Over 3/4th of the way through the review period for the June rebalance, we see 7 potential changes to the KOSPI200 Index. Most are high probability changes.
Potential inclusions: F&amp;F (383220 KS), SD Biosensor (137310 KS), Meritz Fire &amp; Marine (000060 KS), Iljin Hysolus (271940 KS), K Car (381970 KS), Hanil Cement (300720 KS), Hana Tour (039130).
Potential deletions: Cuckoo Holdings (192400 KS), S&amp;T Motiv (064960 KS), Nexen Tire (002350 KS), Hyundai Home Shopping (057050 KS), Cuckoo Homesys (284740 KS), Sk Discovery (006120), Grand Korea Leisure (114090).


KOSPI200 June Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>WISE Tour is another fast-growing theme index in Korea with an AUM of ₩0.23T. The next rebalancing will be on April 15. So, the rebalancing trading is on April 14.</li>
<li>Although the flow size of this ETF rebalancing is not substantial, it seems clear that the flow/price (direction) correlation is at a level we should pay attention to.</li>
<li>Those expected to receive a meaningful flow impact at this point are: (LONG) Hana Tour, GKL, &amp; Yong Pyong Resort / (SHORT) Hanjin KAL, Ananti, &amp; SK Rent A Car</li>
</ul>


WISE Tour is another fast-growing theme index in Korea with an AUM of ₩0.23T. The next rebalancing will be on April 15. So, the rebalancing trading is on April 14.
Although the flow size of this ETF rebalancing is not substantial, it seems clear that the flow/price (direction) correlation is at a level we should pay attention to.
Those expected to receive a meaningful flow impact at this point are: (LONG) Hana Tour, GKL, &amp; Yong Pyong Resort / (SHORT) Hanjin KAL, Ananti, &amp; SK Rent A Car


WISE Tour Leisure (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Preview

South Korea

Grand Korea Leisure Co., Ltd. operates casino business.

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Grand Korea Leisure (114090 KS)

Three Major Reasons Why Korean Casinos Are Likely to Outperform the Market This Year

We discuss three main reasons why we believe Korean casinos are likely to continue to outperform the market this year including a hedge against...

Douglas Kim

Significant MoM Increase in Inbound & Outbound Visitors in Korea in April 2022

There were 128k visitors to South Korea in April, up 32% MoM. There were 215k outbound people from South Korea in April 2022, up 48% MoM.

Douglas Kim

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Review Period Ends as Reversion Kicks In

With the review period complete, we see 7 potential changes to the index in June. The inclusions have underperformed the deletions in April and...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI200 June Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

With just over a month to go in the review period, we see 7 potential changes to the KOSPI200 Index. Most changes are high probability and the...

Brian Freitas

WISE Tour Leisure (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Preview

This post previews the upcoming rebalancing of the WISE Tour Leisure (TIGER ETF), effective April 15. The screening at this point delivers 3 LONG...

Sanghyun Park

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