IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (NYK HK)</a> is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC. It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports.</p></div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-initiation-a-new-leaf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48532" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf</a>, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-drinking-habits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52873" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits</a>, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play. In this note, we take the first look at Nayuki's potential valuation. </p></div>
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Nayuki Holdings (NYK HK) is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC. It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports.
In Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market.
In Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play. In this note, we take the first look at Nayuki's potential valuation. 


Nayuki Holdings IPO: Valuation First-Look

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>We are no longer recommending an overweight to China (<strong>MSCI China</strong>) due to recent RS deterioration. Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (<strong>TAIEX</strong>) and India (<strong>SENSEX</strong>), while Brazil (<strong>Bovespa</strong>) and South Korea (<strong>KOSPI</strong>) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure. MSCI EM <strong>Technology </strong>and <strong>Materials </strong>are our top two Sector overweights. Additionally, the EM <strong>Health Care</strong> Sector shows bullish price and RS inflections, making it a timely Sector to add exposure to at current levels.</p>

We are no longer recommending an overweight to China (MSCI China) due to recent RS deterioration. Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure. MSCI EM Technology and Materials are our top two Sector overweights. Additionally, the EM Health Care Sector shows bullish price and RS inflections, making it a timely Sector to add exposure to at current levels.

Overweight EM Vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiumaojiu-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28293:1" rel="noopener">Jiumaojiu (9922 HK)</a> is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will commence trading on Wednesday, 15 January. Jiumaojiu priced its IPO at HK$6.60 per share (at the top-end of the range). </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jiumaojiu-international-ipo-valuation-reasonable-for-the-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our valuation note</a>, we stated that the IPO price range is attractive in the context of Jiumaojiu's earnings growth potential. Our DCF analysis supports this view and our DCF-based scenario analysis suggests that the IPO price is undemanding.</p></div></div></div>

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will commence trading on Wednesday, 15 January. Jiumaojiu priced its IPO at HK$6.60 per share (at the top-end of the range). In our valuation note, we stated that the IPO price range is attractive in the context of Jiumaojiu's earnings growth potential. Our DCF analysis supports this view and our DCF-based scenario analysis suggests that the IPO price is undemanding.

Jiumaojiu: Trading Debut, Valuation Scenario Analysis

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiumaojiu-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28293:1" rel="noopener">Jiumaojiu (9922 HK)</a> is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will raise net proceeds of HK$1,910.6 million ($245 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range. </p><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jiumaojiu-international-ipo-initiation-eat-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that Jiumaojiu’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives and could prove attractive at the right valuation. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive in the context of Jiumaojiu's earnings growth potential.</p></div></div></div>

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will raise net proceeds of HK$1,910.6 million ($245 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range. In our initiation note, we stated that Jiumaojiu’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives and could prove attractive at the right valuation. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive in the context of Jiumaojiu's earnings growth potential.

Jiumaojiu International IPO: Valuation Reasonable for the Growth

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiumaojiu-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28293:1" rel="noopener">Jiumaojiu (9922 HK)</a> is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiu Mao Jiu has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,734.5-2,086.6 million ($223-268 million).</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Jiumaojiu is a play on the attractive growth of the Chinese cuisine market, which is underpinned by the increasing urbanisation rate, the growing importance of catering in shopping malls and prevalent dining out lifestyle in China. Overall, we believe that Jiumaojiu’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives.</p></div>

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiu Mao Jiu has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,734.5-2,086.6 million ($223-268 million).Jiumaojiu is a play on the attractive growth of the Chinese cuisine market, which is underpinned by the increasing urbanisation rate, the growing importance of catering in shopping malls and prevalent dining out lifestyle in China. Overall, we believe that Jiumaojiu’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives.

Jiumaojiu International IPO Initiation: Eat Up

Taiwan

Gourmet Master Co Ltd operates coffee and bakery cafes in Taiwan, China and Hong Kong.

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Gourmet Master (2723 TT)

Nayuki Holdings IPO: Valuation First-Look

Nayuki is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. In this note, we take the first look at Nayuki's...

Arun George

Overweight EM Vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues

Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS...

Vermilion Research

Jiumaojiu: Trading Debut, Valuation Scenario Analysis

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will commence trading...

Arun George

Jiumaojiu International IPO: Valuation Reasonable for the Growth

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiumaojiu will raise net proceeds...

Arun George

Jiumaojiu International IPO Initiation: Eat Up

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is a Chinese restaurant chain operator which operates 328 outlets in China under five brands. Jiu Mao Jiu has launched a Hong...

Arun George

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