Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Softbank Group’s share price has been supported by the share buyback programme since late September, but 2Q FY2022 results are likely act as a negative catalyst for Softbank shares</li>
<li>Alibaba and its core listed holdings in the Vision Funds have seen market values go lower in recent months; see the diverging market price chart trends in this report</li>
<li>In addition, valuations among the unlisted holdings are also under pressure into October, so 2Q results may not capture the full extent of the down rounds</li>
</ul>


Softbank Group’s share price has been supported by the share buyback programme since late September, but 2Q FY2022 results are likely act as a negative catalyst for Softbank shares
Alibaba and its core listed holdings in the Vision Funds have seen market values go lower in recent months; see the diverging market price chart trends in this report
In addition, valuations among the unlisted holdings are also under pressure into October, so 2Q results may not capture the full extent of the down rounds


Softbank Group (9984 JP) – Defying Gravity into 4Q 2022

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> while buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact is not material on most of the stocks.</li>
<li>The passive buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> on Monday offers an avenue to exit the stock ahead of the huge lock-up expiry on 30 November.</li>
</ul>


Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to sell Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Emtek (EMTK IJ) while buying GoTo (GOTO IJ) and Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ). 
There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact is not material on most of the stocks.
The passive buying on GoTo (GOTO IJ) on Monday offers an avenue to exit the stock ahead of the huge lock-up expiry on 30 November.


IDX30/​LQ45/​IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>GoTo on Monday confirmed that it's currently working with pre-IPO shareholders to explore a coordinated secondary offering of shares held by these shareholders when their lock-up expires on 30 November.</li>
<li>Following IPO, most shareholders agreed to hold onto their shares for a period of 8-months, and the lock-up period for around 90% of outstanding shares will expire next month.</li>
<li>As we continue to highlight in our previous insights, growth in top line does not necessarily mean profits for GoTo, and the company continues to burn cash to fuel growth.</li>
</ul>


GoTo on Monday confirmed that it's currently working with pre-IPO shareholders to explore a coordinated secondary offering of shares held by these shareholders when their lock-up expires on 30 November.
Following IPO, most shareholders agreed to hold onto their shares for a period of 8-months, and the lock-up period for around 90% of outstanding shares will expire next month.
As we continue to highlight in our previous insights, growth in top line does not necessarily mean profits for GoTo, and the company continues to burn cash to fuel growth.


GoTo: Lock-Up Expiry and a Coordinated Secondary Offering – Further Downside to Share Price Likely

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> confirmed that it is exploring a coordinated secondary offering of shares held by pre-IPO shareholders. The Series A shareholders’ lock-up expires on 30 November 2022. </li>
<li>The lock-up of 89.63% of the outstanding shares expires on 30 November. Within these shares, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> stakes are worth a combined US$2.6bn.</li>
<li>GoTo continues to grow but with material losses and cash burn. The shares are fairly valued but the sizeable secondary offering (US$1 billion based on reports) will pressure the price. </li>
</ul>



GoTo (GOTO IJ) confirmed that it is exploring a coordinated secondary offering of shares held by pre-IPO shareholders. The Series A shareholders’ lock-up expires on 30 November 2022. 
The lock-up of 89.63% of the outstanding shares expires on 30 November. Within these shares, Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) and Softbank Group (9984 JP) stakes are worth a combined US$2.6bn.
GoTo continues to grow but with material losses and cash burn. The shares are fairly valued but the sizeable secondary offering (US$1 billion based on reports) will pressure the price. 


GoTo Lock-Up: A Sizeable Secondary Offering Incoming

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, Blibli launched its Indonesian IPO, while a few other names are said to be gearing up to launch in Hong Kong and India.</li>
<li>There were a few placements this week, notable ones being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-estate-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25867:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Estate Logistics (3481 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zee-entertainment-enterprises" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19466:1" rel="noopener">Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z IN)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Blibli launched its Indonesian IPO, while a few other names are said to be gearing up to launch in Hong Kong and India.
There were a few placements this week, notable ones being Mitsubishi Estate Logistics (3481 JP) and Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z IN).


ECM Weekly (23rd Oct 2022) - Giant Biogene, Blibli, Bionote, Fusion Micro, Mitsubishi Estate

Indonesia

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

Softbank Group (9984 JP) – Defying Gravity into 4Q 2022

Softbank's share price has defied gravity of late, diverging from the trends of its listed holdings but we see clear hurdles going forward from the...

Victor Galliano

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday

Float and capping changes will result in selling on BBCA & EMTK and buying on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI, BBRI & ASII. This is an opportunity to sell some...

Brian Freitas

GoTo Lock-Up: A Sizeable Secondary Offering Incoming

The lock-up of 89.63% of shares expires on 30 November. The shares are fairly valued at the last close, but the sizeable secondary offering (US$1bn...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (23rd Oct 2022) - Giant Biogene, Blibli, Bionote, Fusion Micro, Mitsubishi Estate

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Softbank Group (9984 JP) – Defying Gravity into 4Q 2022

Softbank's share price has defied gravity of late, diverging from the trends of its listed holdings but we see clear hurdles going forward from the...

Victor Galliano

IDX30/​LQ45/​IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday

Float and capping changes will result in selling on BBCA & EMTK and buying on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI, BBRI & ASII. This is an opportunity to sell some...

Brian Freitas

GoTo: Lock-Up Expiry and a Coordinated Secondary Offering – Further Downside to Share Price Likely

Despite a secondary offering to prevent a crash in share price following lock-up expiry, given the size of the secondary offering (about US$1bn),...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

GoTo Lock-Up: A Sizeable Secondary Offering Incoming

The lock-up of 89.63% of shares expires on 30 November. The shares are fairly valued at the last close, but the sizeable secondary offering (US$1bn...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (23rd Oct 2022) - Giant Biogene, Blibli, Bionote, Fusion Micro, Mitsubishi Estate

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday