New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Goodman Property Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong rental growth offsets the impact of cap rate softening on asset valuations</li><li>Asset valuation spreads to long term bond yields remain compressed</li><li>Benchmark for other listed portfolio valuations: GMT, KPG and PFI have all now provided the outcome of independent portfolio revaluations​​​​​​​ within the last three-months</li></ul>

Strong rental growth offsets the impact of cap rate softening on asset valuationsAsset valuation spreads to long term bond yields remain compressedBenchmark for other listed portfolio valuations: GMT, KPG and PFI have all now provided the outcome of independent portfolio revaluations​​​​​​​ within the last three-months

Goodman Property Trust: Cap Rates on the Rise

<ul><li>Goodman Property Trust (GMT) have announced FY23 draft revaluations for the 12-months to 31 March 2023.</li><li>The preliminary result is a -NZ$238m (-4.7%) reduction in the fair value of its property assets.</li><li>The FY23 revaluation outcome reflects +100bp cap rate expansion for GMT’s investment portfolio to 5.2%, with annual market rent growth of +19% reducing the impact of softening cap rates on valuations. </li></ul>

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) have announced FY23 draft revaluations for the 12-months to 31 March 2023.The preliminary result is a -NZ$238m (-4.7%) reduction in the fair value of its property assets.The FY23 revaluation outcome reflects +100bp cap rate expansion for GMT’s investment portfolio to 5.2%, with annual market rent growth of +19% reducing the impact of softening cap rates on valuations. 

Goodman Property Trust: FY23 Revaluation Update

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Dust settles on February reporting season: Four property companies reported in February; Precinct Properties (PCT), Property for Industry (PFI), Winton (WIN) and Vital Healthcare (VHP). </li><li>Solid month for the property sector: The NZ LPV sector was up +1.6% in February, outperforming the NZX50 which was down -0.6%</li><li>Relative valuations looking attractive but only back to fairer value vs bond yields</li></ul>

Dust settles on February reporting season: Four property companies reported in February; Precinct Properties (PCT), Property for Industry (PFI), Winton (WIN) and Vital Healthcare (VHP). Solid month for the property sector: The NZ LPV sector was up +1.6% in February, outperforming the NZX50 which was down -0.6%Relative valuations looking attractive but only back to fairer value vs bond yields

Real Estate Reflections: Refurbishing the Monthly

<ul>
<li>Last year was a turbulent time for listed property vehicles (LPVs) - the sector was down -26% in the year as it adjusted to the higher interest rate environment</li>
<li>Valuations remain above historical relationships with bond yields, and the growth outlook has moderated</li>
<li>The sector is trading c-30% below its net asset backing but we consider this largely priced in.</li>
</ul>


Last year was a turbulent time for listed property vehicles (LPVs) - the sector was down -26% in the year as it adjusted to the higher interest rate environment
Valuations remain above historical relationships with bond yields, and the growth outlook has moderated
The sector is trading c-30% below its net asset backing but we consider this largely priced in.


Real Estate Reflections: Five Themes for the Year Ahead

<ul><li>1H23 listed property results highlighted solid operational outcomes, but we are starting to see higher interest rates impact forward earnings expectations and capital management strategies</li><li>Development is being delayed, non-core assets sold and distribution growth moderated</li><li>While results were generally in line with our expectations, we lowered our earnings and dividend forecasts for most of the sector</li></ul>

1H23 listed property results highlighted solid operational outcomes, but we are starting to see higher interest rates impact forward earnings expectations and capital management strategiesDevelopment is being delayed, non-core assets sold and distribution growth moderatedWhile results were generally in line with our expectations, we lowered our earnings and dividend forecasts for most of the sector

Real Estate Reflections: Adjusting to a Higher Rates Environment

New Zealand

Goodman Property Trust is a property trust that invests in, manages and develope portfolio of diversified property assets in Auckland. The Trust's portfolio comprises of office, industrial and retail properties.

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Goodman Property Trust (GMT NZ)

Goodman Property Trust: Cap Rates on the Rise

Goodman Property Trust's (GMT) FY23 valuations have resulted in a preliminary -5% reduction in the fair value of its property assets; A +60bp...

Forsyth Barr

Goodman Property Trust: FY23 Revaluation Update

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) have announced FY23 draft revaluations for the 12-months to 31 March 2023; the FY23 revaluation outcome reflects...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections: Refurbishing the Monthly

Listed property companies that reported in February saw strong operational results; While results were broadly in line with our expectations, we...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections: Five Themes for the Year Ahead

Last year was a turbulent time for listed property vehicles (LPVs) - the sector was down -26% in the year as it adjusted to the higher interest...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections: Adjusting to a Higher Rates Environment

1H23 listed property results highlighted solid operational outcomes, but we are starting to see higher interest rates impact forward earnings...

Forsyth Barr

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