New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Goodman Property Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Goodman Property Trust (GMT) reported a solid 1H25 result, with strong top-line growth and lower operating costs offsetting higher interest expense, resulting in flat underlying earnings.</li><li>Cash earnings growth was largely due to lower holding costs as land moved into development.</li><li>The portfolio remains under-rented, but the operating backdrop has deteriorated, with a small number of insolvencies, reduced tenant demand, and a slight lift in vacancy. </li></ul>

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) reported a solid 1H25 result, with strong top-line growth and lower operating costs offsetting higher interest expense, resulting in flat underlying earnings.Cash earnings growth was largely due to lower holding costs as land moved into development.The portfolio remains under-rented, but the operating backdrop has deteriorated, with a small number of insolvencies, reduced tenant demand, and a slight lift in vacancy. 

Goodman Property Trust - 1H25 — Waiting on the Next Leg of Growth

<ul><li>Goodman Property Trust (GMT) reported a solid FY24 result to draw a line under its era as an externally managed vehicle.</li><li>FY25 guidance for cash earnings of 7.5cps and distributions of 6.5cps was unchanged from the management internalisation proposal.</li><li>This guidance and GMT's medium-term targets are dependant on growing its own asset management business, partly from selling down its current portfolio. </li></ul>

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) reported a solid FY24 result to draw a line under its era as an externally managed vehicle.FY25 guidance for cash earnings of 7.5cps and distributions of 6.5cps was unchanged from the management internalisation proposal.This guidance and GMT's medium-term targets are dependant on growing its own asset management business, partly from selling down its current portfolio. 

Goodman Property Trust - FY24 Result — Moving Forward

<ul><li>Goodman Property Trust (GMT) has announced it has reached an agreement with its manager, Goodman Group (GMG), to internalise its management contract.</li><li>GMT is one of the shrinking number of externally managed property vehicles on the NZX.</li><li>In our view the internalisation proposal has merit given internal structure offers better alignment of interests between management and shareholders, and the ability to pursue a wider range of growth options. </li></ul>

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) has announced it has reached an agreement with its manager, Goodman Group (GMG), to internalise its management contract.GMT is one of the shrinking number of externally managed property vehicles on the NZX.In our view the internalisation proposal has merit given internal structure offers better alignment of interests between management and shareholders, and the ability to pursue a wider range of growth options. 

Goodman Property Trust - The Managed Becomes the Manager

<ul><li>Goodman Property Trust (GMT) provided a draft revaluation update which saw the value of its property portfolio reduce by -5% over 2H24.</li><li>The decrease in portfolio value was primarily driven by a +40 bps increase in portfolio cap rates in 2H24 (+80 bps since FY23), and was partially offset by modest market rental growth.</li><li>This revaluation update comes earlier than normal for GMT which typically releases its full year valuations mid-to-late March. </li></ul>

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) provided a draft revaluation update which saw the value of its property portfolio reduce by -5% over 2H24.The decrease in portfolio value was primarily driven by a +40 bps increase in portfolio cap rates in 2H24 (+80 bps since FY23), and was partially offset by modest market rental growth.This revaluation update comes earlier than normal for GMT which typically releases its full year valuations mid-to-late March. 

Goodman Property Trust - Going Early on Revaluations

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>November was a soft month for the property sector as interest rate volatility continued.</li><li>1H25 results were largely as expected with most companies seeing: (1) slight vacancy rise, softening tenant demand and slowing market rent growth, reflecting the economic backdrop, (2) debt costs beginning to decline, and (3) asset values and cap rates stabilising. We expect these themes will continue to play out over the next year.</li><li>While the property sector continues to trade at compressed spreads to long-bond yields, it is trading on wider yields than some defensive peers and a lower earnings multiple than the broader market. </li></ul>

November was a soft month for the property sector as interest rate volatility continued.1H25 results were largely as expected with most companies seeing: (1) slight vacancy rise, softening tenant demand and slowing market rent growth, reflecting the economic backdrop, (2) debt costs beginning to decline, and (3) asset values and cap rates stabilising. We expect these themes will continue to play out over the next year.While the property sector continues to trade at compressed spreads to long-bond yields, it is trading on wider yields than some defensive peers and a lower earnings multiple than the broader market. 

Real Estate Reflections - From One Cycle to the Next

New Zealand

Goodman Property Trust is a property trust that invests in, manages and develope portfolio of diversified property assets in Auckland. The Trust's portfolio comprises of office, industrial and retail properties.

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Goodman Property Trust (GMT NZ)

Goodman Property Trust - 1H25 — Waiting on the Next Leg of Growth

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) reported a solid 1H25 result, with strong top-line growth and lower operating costs offsetting higher interest...

Forsyth Barr

Goodman Property Trust - FY24 Result — Moving Forward

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) reported a solid FY24 result to draw a line under its era as an externally managed vehicle.

Forsyth Barr

Goodman Property Trust - The Managed Becomes the Manager

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) has announced it has reached an agreement with its manager, Goodman Group (GMG), to internalise its management contract.

Forsyth Barr

Goodman Property Trust - Going Early on Revaluations

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) provided a draft revaluation update which saw the value of its property portfolio reduce by -5% over 2H24.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - From One Cycle to the Next

While the property sector continues to trade at compressed spreads to long-bond yields, it is trading on wider yields than some defensive peers and...

Forsyth Barr

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