Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Less than half the active Global managers in our analysis have exposure to Australian stocks, the lowest levels in over a decade.</li>
<li>Versus the MSCI ACWI benchmark, Australia is the 3rd largest underweight country holding globally, with sector-wide declines in ownership occurring over the last 6-months, headed by Materials.</li>
<li>Underweights are driven by BHP Group (BHP AU) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), with CSL Ltd (CSL AU) the most widely held stock in Australia.</li>
</ul>


Less than half the active Global managers in our analysis have exposure to Australian stocks, the lowest levels in over a decade.
Versus the MSCI ACWI benchmark, Australia is the 3rd largest underweight country holding globally, with sector-wide declines in ownership occurring over the last 6-months, headed by Materials.
Underweights are driven by BHP Group (BHP AU) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), with CSL Ltd (CSL AU) the most widely held stock in Australia.


Australia:  Underweight & Underowned as Allocations Slip to All-Time Lows.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Logistics Property Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a>'s <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0203/2022020300037.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Composite Document</a> has now been despatched. The Offer is open for acceptance with a first close on the 25 February.</li>
<li>The Offer from JD.com is conditional on 50% acceptances, with 66.4% in the bag.</li>
<li>Done deal and trading through terms. The IFA considers the Offer is fair and reasonable. </li>
</ul>



China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)'s Composite Document has now been despatched. The Offer is open for acceptance with a first close on the 25 February.
The Offer from JD.com is conditional on 50% acceptances, with 66.4% in the bag.
Done deal and trading through terms. The IFA considers the Offer is fair and reasonable. 


CLPH (1589 HK): Composite Doc Out. Offer Now Open

<ul>
<li>China's AML (Anti-Monopoly Law) Authority approval, the key SPA condition to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a> transaction, has now been satisfied.  </li>
<li>A number of conditions to the SPA remain outstanding, almost all of which can be waived by the Offeror (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>).</li>
<li>Trading tight to terms with possible payment in early February.</li>
</ul>


China's AML (Anti-Monopoly Law) Authority approval, the key SPA condition to the China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) transaction, has now been satisfied.  
A number of conditions to the SPA remain outstanding, almost all of which can be waived by the Offeror (JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)).
Trading tight to terms with possible payment in early February.


CLPH (1589 HK): MGO Imminent As Anti-Monopoly Approval Satisfied

<div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a> (CLPH) has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0903/2021090300814.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> its chairman, Li Shifa, has entered into an S&amp;P Agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>, to sell his 26.38% stake in CLPH at a price of $4.35/share.
Provided conditions to the S&amp;P are fulfilled, and with JD.com currently holding 10.64%, it would be obligated to make a Mandatory General Offer (MGO) - also at HK$4.35/share.
The key S&amp;P condition is approval from China's AML (Anti-Monopoly Law) Authority.
The key condition to the MGO becoming unconditional is JD.com holding 50% of the voting rights in CLPH. RRJ Capital, Joy Orient, and Dajia Baoxian have given irrevocables to tender in their 21.94%, 3.3%, and 4.14% respective stakes.
This all looks pretty clean.
The pushback is that when CLPH <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1229/2020122901322.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on the 29 December 2020 Li and RRJ Capital were "conducting a preliminary strategic review of their stakes", indicating a possible change of control for the company, the pre-announcement share price was HK$3.90. Therefore the Offer Price is an 11.5% premium to the undisturbed price. Many investors thought a $4.50+ handle was more in keeping with this space which has been garnering significant attention.
The Offer price will not be increased. 
Still, as one reader put it, they're just happy to get this slow-burning deal off their books.
More below the fold.
</div>


China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) (CLPH) has announced its chairman, Li Shifa, has entered into an S&amp;P Agreement with JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), to sell his 26.38% stake in CLPH at a price of $4.35/share.
Provided conditions to the S&amp;P are fulfilled, and with JD.com currently holding 10.64%, it would be obligated to make a Mandatory General Offer (MGO) - also at HK$4.35/share.
The key S&amp;P condition is approval from China's AML (Anti-Monopoly Law) Authority.
The key condition to the MGO becoming unconditional is JD.com holding 50% of the voting rights in CLPH. RRJ Capital, Joy Orient, and Dajia Baoxian have given irrevocables to tender in their 21.94%, 3.3%, and 4.14% respective stakes.
This all looks pretty clean.
The pushback is that when CLPH announced on the 29 December 2020 Li and RRJ Capital were "conducting a preliminary strategic review of their stakes", indicating a possible change of control for the company, the pre-announcement share price was HK$3.90. Therefore the Offer Price is an 11.5% premium to the undisturbed price. Many investors thought a $4.50+ handle was more in keeping with this space which has been garnering significant attention.
The Offer price will not be increased. 
Still, as one reader put it, they're just happy to get this slow-burning deal off their books.
More below the fold.


China Logistics (1589 HK): JD.com's Offer Comes Up Short

On the 29 December 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a> (CLPH) <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1229/2020122901322.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> Li Shifa (chairman, holding ~28.2%) and RRJ Capital (~23.35%), were "conducting a preliminary strategic review of their stakes", indicating a possible change of control for the company. Shares gained 16.4% over the following three trading days. 
Fast forward to the 9 June,  and CLPH <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0609/2021060900007.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a placement of 220mn new shares at a placing price of $3.54/share, an 18.24% discount to last close. This was arguably not the news the market was anticipating, and shares closed down ~20% at HK$3.45 versus a post-money book value of ~HK$3.90. 
That <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0617/2021061701380.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">placement</a> was completed on the 17 June. Of interest, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> bumped its stake to 10.11%, on a fully diluted basis, from 9.87% (pre-placement), becoming a substantial shareholder in the process as defined in the Listing Rules. With JD.com no longer considered part of the float - which excludes shareholders with ≥10% of a company's voting power -  CLPH was now in breach of Hong Kong's public float.
The takeaway at the time was that JD.com was making a clear point it was not supportive of the placement. In addition, Li and RRJ didn't participate in the placement. 
Then at the AGM on the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0629/2021062901428.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">29 June</a>, shareholders voted down the ordinary resolution giving CLPH's directors the mandate to purchase 10% of shares out. This was shortly followed by a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0707/2021070701481.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">requisition for an EGM</a> from ESR Cayman (holding 18.1% of shares out) proposing four directors to the board. 
On the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0722/2021072201203.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">22 July</a>, "substantial shareholders (s)" - without naming names - had indicated to CLPH its intention to assist the Company to restore the public float by disposing of its existing shares to independent third parties.
Curiously, CLPH <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0817/2021081701346.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announce</a>d on the 17 August that Li has entered into a call option to acquire a non-core office asset from CLPH.
<div>
Shares increased 14% yesterday on massive volume, before shares were suspended at <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0826/2021082600505.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">3.08pm</a> "pending the release of an announcement which contains inside information". 
<h3>The New News</h3>
CLPH <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0826/2021082601774.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that Li was is in discussion with a potential purchaser of 26.38% of the total issued shares, which, if completed, may lead to a change in control and a mandatory general offer.
Shares are off 5% today as I type, on sizeable volume.
</div>
<div>
More below the fold.
</div>

On the 29 December 2020, China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) (CLPH) announced Li Shifa (chairman, holding ~28.2%) and RRJ Capital (~23.35%), were "conducting a preliminary strategic review of their stakes", indicating a possible change of control for the company. Shares gained 16.4% over the following three trading days. 
Fast forward to the 9 June,  and CLPH announced a placement of 220mn new shares at a placing price of $3.54/share, an 18.24% discount to last close. This was arguably not the news the market was anticipating, and shares closed down ~20% at HK$3.45 versus a post-money book value of ~HK$3.90. 
That placement was completed on the 17 June. Of interest, JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) bumped its stake to 10.11%, on a fully diluted basis, from 9.87% (pre-placement), becoming a substantial shareholder in the process as defined in the Listing Rules. With JD.com no longer considered part of the float - which excludes shareholders with ≥10% of a company's voting power -  CLPH was now in breach of Hong Kong's public float.
The takeaway at the time was that JD.com was making a clear point it was not supportive of the placement. In addition, Li and RRJ didn't participate in the placement. 
Then at the AGM on the 29 June, shareholders voted down the ordinary resolution giving CLPH's directors the mandate to purchase 10% of shares out. This was shortly followed by a requisition for an EGM from ESR Cayman (holding 18.1% of shares out) proposing four directors to the board. 
On the 22 July, "substantial shareholders (s)" - without naming names - had indicated to CLPH its intention to assist the Company to restore the public float by disposing of its existing shares to independent third parties.
Curiously, CLPH announced on the 17 August that Li has entered into a call option to acquire a non-core office asset from CLPH.

Shares increased 14% yesterday on massive volume, before shares were suspended at 3.08pm "pending the release of an announcement which contains inside information". 
The New News
CLPH announced that Li was is in discussion with a potential purchaser of 26.38% of the total issued shares, which, if completed, may lead to a change in control and a mandatory general offer.
Shares are off 5% today as I type, on sizeable volume.


More below the fold.


China Logistics (1589 HK): More Talk On "Change Of Control"

Australia

Goodman Group is an integrated industrial property group. The Group has operations in Australia, New Zealand, UK, Asia and Europe. Goodman's activities include property investment, funds management, property development and property services. The Group's property portfolio includes business parks, industrial estates, office parks and warehouse/distribution centers.

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Goodman Group (GMG AU)

Australia: Underweight & Underowned as Allocations Slip to All-Time Lows.

Less than half the active Global managers in our analysis have exposure to Australian stocks, the lowest levels in over a decade.

Steven Holden

CLPH (1589 HK): Composite Doc Out. Offer Now Open

This transaction is done. Trading 1% through terms, as it has done so since late last month. Should the share price dip below the MGO price, get...

David Blennerhassett

CLPH (1589 HK): MGO Imminent As Anti-Monopoly Approval Satisfied

Trading super tight at 0.2%/2.4% gross/annualised spread (at HK$4.34/share), assuming early February completion. You have a hard put at HK$4.35...

David Blennerhassett

China Logistics (1589 HK): JD.com's Offer Comes Up Short

The price is widely viewed as a disappointment. But this should trade relatively tight to terms - perhaps around HK$4.25, or 2.4%/16.0% gross...

David Blennerhassett

China Logistics (1589 HK): More Talk On "Change Of Control"

It is still a pre-event. There can no guarantee an Offer will be forthcoming. But shares are back down to the same level at the time of the...

David Blennerhassett

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