Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Commodities

INVESTMENT VIEW We remain sellers of  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8632" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)</a>, despite a deepening global trade war.  The key bearish trend highlighted in our note last May remain in-tact (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gold-price-challenged-by-rising-real-yields" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20643">Gold Price Challenged by Rising Real Yields</a>).  Despite a fall of over ~US$40/oz since then, we continue to look for further downside of ~US$50/oz in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> this summer.
CHALLENGES REMAIN Despite the metal's reputation as a safe haven asset, investors have been selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> during the past month. In…

INVESTMENT VIEW We remain sellers of  SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US), despite a deepening global trade war.  The key bearish trend highlighted in our note last May remain in-tact (Gold Price Challenged by Rising Real Yields).  Despite a fall of over ~US$40/oz since then, we continue to look for further downside of ~US$50/oz in Gold (GOLD COMDTY) this summer.
CHALLENGES REMAIN Despite the metal's reputation as a safe haven asset, investors have been selling Gold (GOLD COMDTY) during the past month. In…

Gold has another 10% risk in it, unless it can break back above 1,306.Gold has probably been base-building since 2013, but the lack of bullish rally patterns since Q1 2017 had been warning that the process might not be complete.  We remain concerned that the rally from that Q1 low merely ended wave B up in an A-B-C “sideways” Flat 2nd wave trading range of 1,120- 1,375.  The completion of the B-wave opened the way for a fairly sharp 5-wave drop back to that 1,120 support area.  The action above…

Gold has another 10% risk in it, unless it can break back above 1,306.Gold has probably been base-building since 2013, but the lack of bullish rally patterns since Q1 2017 had been warning that the process might not be complete.  We remain concerned that the rally from that Q1 low merely ended wave B up in an A-B-C “sideways” Flat 2nd wave trading range of 1,120- 1,375.  The completion of the B-wave opened the way for a fairly sharp 5-wave drop back to that 1,120 support area.  The action above…

Equity Bottom-Up

Aluminum Corporation Of China / Equity Bottom-Up

PRICE FORECAST CHANGES - RAISING COAL; CUTTING GOLD:We raise our annual average <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22876" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22876:1">Coal (COAL COMDTY)</a> price forecasts by 10% after strong price gains of 12% in May.  China's anti-pollution campaigns have curbed coal production and resulted in regional shortages. However, looking beyond these recent bottlenecks we remain bearish on the outlook for growth in China's coal consumption and pricing due to Beijing's long-stated aim at reducing air pollution.Additionally, we cut our annual average <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold</a>…

PRICE FORECAST CHANGES - RAISING COAL; CUTTING GOLD:We raise our annual average Coal (COAL COMDTY) price forecasts by 10% after strong price gains of 12% in May.  China's anti-pollution campaigns have curbed coal production and resulted in regional shortages. However, looking beyond these recent bottlenecks we remain bearish on the outlook for growth in China's coal consumption and pricing due to Beijing's long-stated aim at reducing air pollution.Additionally, we cut our annual average Gold…

Energy Drives Commodity Price Gains in May

INVESTMENT VIEW We would sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8632" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)</a> and expect further downside of about $5/share (or US$50/oz of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a>) in the weeks ahead.    RISING REAL YIELDS  The rise in nominal US bond yields since last September has been roughly shared between rising inflation expectations and higher real yields.  However, in the past few weeks rising real yields have moved ahead, and this has increased the opportunity cost of holding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> as an inflation hedge.  As a result…

INVESTMENT VIEW We would sell SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) and expect further downside of about $5/share (or US$50/oz of Gold (GOLD COMDTY)) in the weeks ahead.    RISING REAL YIELDS  The rise in nominal US bond yields since last September has been roughly shared between rising inflation expectations and higher real yields.  However, in the past few weeks rising real yields have moved ahead, and this has increased the opportunity cost of holding Gold (GOLD COMDTY) as an inflation hedge.  As a result…

Gold Price Challenged by Rising Real Yields

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

S&P 500: What Are the Odds of a Crash?

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”. This is not a forecast as such, because...

Peter Beuttell

Gold Falls Despite Trade Wars

INVESTMENT VIEWWe remain sellers of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US), despite a deepening global trade war. The key bearish trend highlighted in our...

Charles Spencer

Gold: Headed for 1,120

Gold has another 10% risk in it, unless it can break back above 1,306.Gold has probably been base-building since 2013, but the lack of bullish...

Peter Beuttell

Energy Drives Commodity Price Gains in May

PRICE FORECAST CHANGES - RAISING COAL; CUTTING GOLD:We raise our annual average Coal (COAL COMDTY) price forecasts by 10% after strong price gains...

Charles Spencer

Gold Price Challenged by Rising Real Yields

INVESTMENT VIEWWe would sell SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) and expect further downside of about $5/share (or US$50/oz of Gold (GOLD COMDTY)) in the...

Charles Spencer

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